Bitcoin Crosses $10,000 With $15,000 in Sight: 3 Winners

PlanB: Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow Cross Asset Model "S2FX model estimates a market value of the next BTC phase/cluster (BTC S2F will be 56 in 2020–2024) of $5.5T. This translates into a BTC price (given 19M BTC in 2020–2024) of $288K. Solidifying known facts from the original"

PlanB: Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow Cross Asset Model submitted by WTF_is_BITCOIN to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

PlanB: Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow Cross Asset Model "S2FX model estimates a market value of the next BTC phase/cluster (BTC S2F will be 56 in 2020–2024) of $5.5T. This translates into a BTC price (given 19M BTC in 2020–2024) of $288K. Solidifying known facts from the original"

PlanB: Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow Cross Asset Model submitted by Fiach_Dubh to BitcoinCA [link] [comments]

ICE officially bringing Bitcoin to wall street.Bitcoin prices/information will be listed next to the stock markets.

ICE officially bringing Bitcoin to wall street.Bitcoin prices/information will be listed next to the stock markets. submitted by ThatBitcoinGuyy to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

ICE officially bringing Bitcoin to wall street.Bitcoin prices/information will be listed next to the stock markets. /r/Bitcoin

ICE officially bringing Bitcoin to wall street.Bitcoin prices/information will be listed next to the stock markets. /Bitcoin submitted by BitcoinAllBot to BitcoinAll [link] [comments]

01-20 03:23 - 'You are exactly what's wrong with Bitcoin. You and your speculator friends are just treating it like a stock, hoarding Kingcoin, waiting for the price to go up so you can sell it to the next jackash at a profit' (self.Bitcoin) by /u/4_The_Wolf_X removed from /r/Bitcoin within 19-29min

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You are exactly what's wrong with Bitcoin. You and your speculator friends are just treating it like a stock, hoarding Kingcoin, waiting for the price to go up so you can sell it to the next jackash at a profit
Go1dfish undelete link
unreddit undelete link
Author: 4_The_Wolf_X
submitted by removalbot to removalbot [link] [comments]

You are exactly what's wrong with Bitcoin. You and your speculator friends are just treating it like a stock, hoarding Kingcoin, waiting for the price to go up so you can sell it to the next jackash at a profit /r/Bitcoin

You are exactly what's wrong with Bitcoin. You and your speculator friends are just treating it like a stock, hoarding Kingcoin, waiting for the price to go up so you can sell it to the next jackash at a profit /Bitcoin submitted by BitcoinAllBot to BitcoinAll [link] [comments]

Bitcoin’s Price To Reach $20,000 In The Next Three Years: Predicted By Stock Research Analyst

Bitcoin’s Price To Reach $20,000 In The Next Three Years: Predicted By Stock Research Analyst submitted by kuroashi123 to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

11.19 The Next Recession Bitcoin Price 5700 USD Crypto Market Stock Trump News BTC Current Events

submitted by BitcoinAllBot to BitcoinAllTV [link] [comments]

11.19 The Next Recession 🆘 Bitcoin Price 5700 USD Crypto Market Stock Trump News BTC Current Events

11.19 The Next Recession 🆘 Bitcoin Price 5700 USD Crypto Market Stock Trump News BTC Current Events submitted by bkcryptotrader to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

11.19 The Next Recession Bitcoin Price 5700 USD Crypto Market Stock Trump News BTC Current Events

11.19 The Next Recession Bitcoin Price 5700 USD Crypto Market Stock Trump News BTC Current Events submitted by BitcoinAllBot to BitcoinAll [link] [comments]

Bitcoins Price To Reach $20,000 In The Next Three Years: Predicted By Stock Research Analyst

Bitcoins Price To Reach $20,000 In The Next Three Years: Predicted By Stock Research Analyst submitted by BitcoinAllBot to BitcoinAll [link] [comments]

ILPT: Hack into a CEO’s twitter account and tweet something that will manipulate the stock price

Recently someone hacked into Elon Musk’s twitter. Unfortunately, they just asked for bitcoin or some crap.
The real money would be using the twitter account to manipulate the stock price of TSLA. If you tweeted something about Tesla using Elon’s account, depending on what you say, you could manipulate the stock price.
For an example, Open up a short position (betting the stock will go down) on TLSA stock. Make sure to go all in! Then tweet “All Tesla factories will be shutting down for the next year due to virus concerns. We care more about our employees safety than profits. We are open to filling for bankruptcy if need be.”
The stock price will tank and you will make thousands, possibly millions depending on how much you put in. This could work with any company that is publicly traded.
Do not short shares if you do this. Open a short position with stock options and put everything in puts! Puts yield a far higher reward if you buy the right strike price.
submitted by Jshbone12 to IllegalLifeProTips [link] [comments]

Forex Trading in Kenya.

Someone posted on here a few days ago asking about forex and forex trading in Kenya, I have gone through the responses and clearly, most people don’t have an idea. It is 3am in the morning and am in a good mood so let me make this post. This will be a comprehensive and lengthy post so grab a pen and paper and sit down. We’ll be here a while.
FIRST OF ALL, who am I..?
I am a forex trader, in Nairobi, Kenya..i have been actively involved in forex since I found out about it in Feb 2016 when I somehow ended up in a wealth creation seminar (lol) in pride inn Westlands, the one close to Mpaka Rd. Luckily for me, it was not one of those AIM global meetings or I’d be on Facebook selling God knows what those guys sell. I did not take it seriously till August of the same year and I have been active ever since.
I don’t teach, mentor or sell a course or signals, I trade my own money. I am also posting from a throwaway account because I don’t want KRA on my ass.
What the fuck is forex and forex trading.
In simple plain English, forex is like the stock market but for currencies. Stock Market = Shares, forex = currencies. If you want more in-depth explanation, google is your friend.
These currencies are pegged on specific countries, united states- dollar, UK- pound, euro zone- euro, Switzerland- Swiss franc, Kenya- Kenya shilling.. you get the point. Now, there are specific events and happenings between these economies that affect the movement and values of the currencies, driving their value (purchasing power up and down). Forex trading exploits these movements to make money. When the value is going up, we buy and vice versa (down –sell)
Is forex trading illegal in Kenya? Is it a scam?
Illegal, no. scam, no. All the banks in the world do it (KCB made about 4 billion from trading forex in 2019)
Have there been scams involving forex in Kenya?
Yes. Here is one that happened recently. This one is the most infamous one yet. Best believe that this is not the end of these type of scams because the stupidity, greed and gullibility of human beings is unfathomable.
However, by the end of this post, I hope you won’t fall for such silliness.
What next how do I make it work..?
Am glad you asked. Generally, there are two ways to go about it. One, you teach yourself. This is the equivalent of stealing our dad’s car and hoping that the pedal you hit is the brake and not the accelerator. It is the route I took, it is the most rewarding and a huge ego boost when you finally make it on your own. Typically, this involves scouring the internet for hours upon hours going down rabbit holes, thinking you have made it telling all your friends how you will be a millionaire then losing all your money. Some people do not have the stomach for that.
The second route is more practical, structured and smarter.
First Learn the basics. There is a free online forex course at www.babypips.com/learn/forex this is merely an introductory course. Basically it is learning the parts of a car before they let you inside the car.
Second, start building your strategy. By the time you are done with the babypips, you will have a feel of what the forex market is, what interests you, etc. Tip..Babypips has a lot of garbage. It is good for introductory purposes but not good for much else, pick whatever stick to you or jumps at you the first time. Nonsense like indicators should be ignored.
The next step is now the most important. Developing the skill and building your strategy. As a beginner, you want to exhaust your naivety before jumping into the more advanced stuff. Eg can you identify a trend, what is a pair, what is position sizing, what is metatrader 4 and how to operate it, what news is good for a currency, when can I trade, what are the different trading sessions, what is technical analysis, what is market sentiment, what are bullish conditions what is emotion management, how does my psychology affect my trading (more on this later) an I a swing, scalper or day trader etc
Mentors and forex courses.. you have probably seen people advertising how they can teach and mentor you on how to trade forex and charging so much money for it. Somehow it seems that these people are focused on the teaching than the trading. Weird, right..? Truth is trading is hard, teaching not quite. A common saying in the industry is “Those who can’t trade, teach” you want to avoid all these gurus on Facebook and Instagram, some are legit but most are not. Sifting the wheat from the chaff is hard but I did that for you. The info is available online on YouTube, telegram channels etc. am not saying not to spend money on a course, if you find a mentor whose style resonates with you and the course is reasonably priced, please, go ahead and buy..it will cut your learning curve in half. People are different. What worked for me might not work for you.
Here are some nice YouTube channels to watch. These guys are legit..
  1. Sam sieden
  2. Cuebanks
  3. TheCoinFx
  4. The trading channel
  5. Astro
  6. Forex family
  7. Wicksdontlie
Advanced stuff
  1. ICT
After a short period of time, you will be able to sniff out bs teachers with relative ease. You will also discover some of your own and expand the list. Two tips, start with the oldest videos first and whichever of these resonates with you, stick with till the wheels fall off.
How long will it take until things start making sense
Give yourself time to grow and learn. This is all new to you and you are allowed to make mistakes, to fail and discover yourself. Realistically, depending on the effort you put in, you will not start seeing results until after 6 months. Could take longeshorter so there is no guarantee.
Social media, Mentality, Psychology and Books
Online, forex trading might not have the best reputation online because it takes hard work and scammers and gurus give it a bad name. However, try to not get sucked into the Instagram trader lifestyle as it is nowhere close to what the reality is. You will not make millions tomorrow or the day after, you might never even make it in this market. But that is the reality of life. Nothing is promised, nothing is guaranteed.
Your mentality, beliefs and ego will be challenged in this market. You will learn things that will make you blood boil, you will ask yourself daily, how is this possible, why don’t they teach this in school..bla bla bla..it will be hard but growth is painful, if it wasn’t we’d all be billionaires. Take a break, take a walk, drink a glass of whatever you like or roll one..detox. Chill with your girl (or man) Gradually you will develop mental toughness that will set you up for life. Personally, I sorta ditched religion and picked up stoicism. Whatever works for you.
Psychology, this is unfortunately one of the most neglected aspects of your personal development in this journey. Do you believe in yourself? Can you stand by your convictions when everyone is against you? Can you get up every day uncertain of the future? There will be moments where you will question yourself, am I even doing the right thing? the right way? It is normal and essential for your growth. People who played competitive sports have a natural advantage here. Remember the game is first won in your head then on the pitch.
Books: ironically, books that helped me the most were the mindset books, Think and grow rich, trading for a living, 4 hour work week, the monk who sold his Ferrari..just google mindset and psychology books, most trading books are garbage. Watch and listen to people who have made it in the investing business. Ray Dalio, warren, Bill Ackman and Carl Icahn.
This is turning out to be lengthier than I anticipated so I’ll try to be brief for the remaining parts.
Brokers
You will need to open up an account with a broker. Get a broker who is regulated. Australian ones (IC Market and Pepperstone) are both legit, reliable and regulated. Do your research. I’d avoid local ones because I’ve heard stories of wide spreads and liquidity problems. International brokers have never failed me. There are plenty brokers, there is no one size fits all recommendation. If it ain’t broke..don’t fix it.
Money transfer.
All brokers accept wire transfers, you might need to call your bank to authorize that, avoid Equity bank. Stanchart and Stanbic are alright. Large withdrawals $10k+ you will have to call them prior. Get Skrill and Neteller if you don’t like banks like me, set up a Bitcoin wallet for faster withdrawals, (Payoneer and Paypal are accepted by some brokers, just check with them.)
How much money can I make..?
I hate this question because people have perceived ceilings of income in their minds, eg 1 million ksh is too much to make per month or 10,000ksh is too little. Instead, work backwards. What % return did I make this month/ on this trade. Safaricom made 19.5% last year, if you make 20% you have outperformed them. If you reach of consistency where you can make x% per month on whatever money you have, then there are no limits to how much you can make.
How much money do I need to start with..?
Zero. You have all the resources above, go forth. There are brokers who provide free bonuses and withdraw-able profits. However, to make a fulltime income you will need some serious cash. Generally, 50,000 kes. You can start lower or higher but if you need say 20k to live comfortably and that is a 10% return per month, then you can do the math on how big your account should be. Of course things like compound interest come into play but that is dependent on your skill level. I have seen people do spectacular things with very little funds.
Taxes..?
Talk to a lawyer or an accountant. I am neither.
Family? Friends?
Unfortunately, people will not understand why you spend hundreds of hours watching strangers on the internet so it is best to keep it from them. Eventually you will make it work and they will come to your corner talking about how they always knew you’d make it.
The journey will be lonely, make some trading buddies along the way. You’d be surprised at how easy it is when people are united by their circumstances (and stupidity) I have guys who are my bros from South Africa and Lebanon who I have never met but we came up together and are now homies. Join forums, ask questions and grow. That is the only way to learn. Ideally, a group of 5-10 friends committed to learning and growth is the best model. Pushing each other to grow and discovering together.
Forex is real and you can do amazing things with it. It is not a get rich quick scheme. If you want a quick guaranteed income, get a job.
And now it is 5am, fuck.
This is oversimplified and leaves out many many aspects.
Happy to answer any questions.
submitted by ChaliFlaniwaNairobi to Kenya [link] [comments]

How I plan to identify and sell the top of the next market cycle.

In this post I will share with you some of the strategies I will use to identify the next market cycle top so I can sell for maximum profits (and of course buy back in later in the subsequent bear market!) In the first part of this post I will discuss the resources I will use and in the second part I will discuss tactics in selling and risk management.

Indicators

As the bull run begins to drag on and the price of ETH starts getting closer and closer to $10k I will begin to start watching many of the data science charts over at Look into Bitcoin. This will not be the only source I will use since there are great custom tools on TradingView too as well as more subjective indicators such as friends and family talking crypto and hearing about crypto again in the mainstream media. I’d also like to note that many of the indicators I will be looking at will be Bitcoin focused despite my ETH centred portfolio. Like it or not, this market is still Bitcoin dominated and despite the many proponents of an ETH flippening (myself included), it is quite likely that we will not see it this cycle due to the macro investing environment favouring assets which are good stores of value to weather the uncertainty. Ultimately, Bitcoin has the best store of value meme in crypto and that will be very powerful in the coming years.
I think it is likely that the time for Ethereum or a network like Ethereum with a yielding asset (ETH under ETH 2.0) and a native economy of DeFi, DApps, NFTs and much more will be once all of the stock market uncertainty is over and investors are ready to take on more risk again. I am of course still expecting Ethereum and altcoins to outperform Bitcoin this cycle. However, I think that Bitcoin losing the number 1 spot will be more likely to happen between 2023 and 2030 rather than in the next 2-3 years. I hope I am wrong though.
While most of the indicators on Looking into Bitcoin are useful, I will list the ones I’ll be focusing on the most here:
And finally my favourite, the Golden Ratio Multiplier. This indicator has been remarkably accurate at predicting tops using the golden ratio (1.6) and the fibonacci sequence (0, 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21) multiplied by the 350 day moving average. With each market cycle, the 350 day moving average is multiplied by the next number down in the fibonacci sequence. For example, the 2013 peak only just passed above the 350 day moving average multiplied by 8 and the 2017 bull market just touched the 350 day moving average multiplied by 5. So if this indicator is to work in the next cycle, we can expect the price to slightly exceed 3 times the value of the 350 day moving average. This indicator also worked for Ethereum in the 2017 bull run. While there is no graph for it, on the 13th of January, when ETH hit a peak of $1,419, the 350 day moving average was at $270. $270 multiplied by 5 is $1,350. If you sold at $1,350 you sold incredibly close to the top and I don’t think that any macro traders/long term traders would complain about that timing.
I’d like to note that while indicators like the Golden Ratio Multiplier factors in for less explosive growth each cycle, not all of the above indicators do. So be cautious of this when you think the peak is near as it may be closer than you think. In saying that, there is a lot of luck involved so I should also point out that it also might not be closer than you think. However, it would be better to sell before the peak at say $10,000/BTC as of 2017 than to be left holding all of your crypto when the bear market begins since Bitcoin didn’t spend much time above $10,000/BTC after the $20K peak. Ultimately it is up to you to decide your risk appetite and how well you want to try and time the market. For me, I will definitely be on the conservative side so that I don’t miss the boat completely and hopefully I will be able to sell most of my crypto just before we peak rather than afterwards.

Risk Management

Since timing the top requires a lot of luck, a good method of mitigating the risk is to spread out when you sell. I’m going to share with you my personal strategy but I recommend that you create your own strategy or use this as a basis from which you can use to adjust and tweak it to optimally suit your situation. If you have a large stack, you will probably want to sell early since you might not need such spectacular gains to lock in some life changing money. On the other hand, if you have a smaller stack or if you are younger, you can afford to take more risk and might want to try and time the absolute peak a bit better to get that much closer to making some life changing money. Personally, while my stack isn’t very big in dollar terms, it is a significant % of my net worth and so I don’t have a high risk tolerance with it (at least relative to other people in crypto!) For this reason I will be selling a little bit on the early side.
My plan has three pots of crypto. 20% of my crypto I will hold indefinitely since I very strongly believe in the long term prospect of ETH and BTC as investments. This way if I time the markets terribly, I will always have some skin in the crypto game. The second pot of crypto is 40% which I will sell on the way up to take some profits and I don’t intend on putting this money back into crypto. Initially I will be selling very small amounts of this 40% and as the indicators listed above get closer and closer to calling a top, I will sell larger proportions of this crypto. I haven’t set specific target numbers since things change fast in this space and I feel like the best decisions in this case are made in the moment. For example, estimating a market top is hard when it is 2-3 years away, but it is much easier when it is just months or weeks away. Once again, this is just personal preference. Many of you will find that setting targets now makes it easier for you to pull the trigger and take some profits when everyone else is calling $1M BTC while it is at $100K or calling for $100K ETH when the current price might be $10K.
Finally, the last 40% I will sell all at once when I feel like we are at the top and I am confident that the price will be lower a year on from that point in time. With this 40% I will try and buy back during the bear market with the help of many of the same indicators I listed above from Look into Bitcoin. I will also use some indicators which I didn’t mention above since some are better designed at identifying market bottoms. My goal is to be able to buy back the number of BTC and ETH I held before I sold anything with this 40% (plus the 20% I didn’t sell). This is a big ask but it is better in life to set hard goals that seem unattainable or unrealistic than it is to set easy goals.
To summarise my portfolio strategy, 20% of my portfolio is an indefinite hold, 40% I will sell on the way up and I do not intend on buying back into crypto with this money so I can avoid being over-exposed to crypto. The last 40% I will use to try and sell the top and buy the bottom.

Closing Notes

As a closing note I would like to say that it will be important to be aware of the power of greed and FOMO. Do not under-estimate these emotions and try to remain a grounded and rational investor. Don’t be scared to take profits. I know from experience trading altcoins that it is better to exit a position early and miss out on another 100% price increase than it is to hold through a bear market and take >90% losses. If you go into this bullrun telling yourself you will take profits on the way up, you will have no reason to regret any early sales since you will know that you made a rational trade and not an emotional trade.
submitted by Tricky_Troll to ethfinance [link] [comments]

DDDD - The Rise of “Buy the Dip” Retail Investors and Why Another Crash Is Imminent

DDDD - The Rise of “Buy the Dip” Retail Investors and Why Another Crash Is Imminent
In this week's edition of DDDD (Data-driven DD), I'll be going over the real reason why we have been seeing a rally for the past few weeks, defying all logic and fundamentals - retail investors. We'll look into several data sets to see how retail interest in stock markets have reached record levels in the past few weeks, how this affected stock prices, and why we've most likely seen the top at this point, unless we see one of the "positive catalysts" that I mentioned in my previous post, which is unlikely (except for more news about Remdesivir).
Disclaimer - This is not financial advice, and a lot of the content below is my personal opinion. In fact, the numbers, facts, or explanations presented below could be wrong and be made up. Don't buy random options because some person on the internet says so; look at what happened to all the SPY 220p 4/17 bag holders. Do your own research and come to your own conclusions on what you should do with your own money, and how levered you want to be based on your personal risk tolerance.
Inspiration
Most people who know me personally know that I spend an unhealthy amount of my free time in finance and trading as a hobby, even competing in paper options trading competitions when I was in high school. A few weeks ago, I had a friend ask if he could call me because he just installed Robinhood and wanted to buy SPY puts after seeing everyone on wallstreetbets post gains posts from all the tendies they’ve made from their SPY puts. The problem was, he actually didn’t understand how options worked at all, and needed a thorough explanation about how options are priced, what strike prices and expiration dates mean, and what the right strategy to buying options are. That’s how I knew we were at the euphoria stage of buying SPY puts - it’s when dumb money starts to pour in, and people start buying securities because they see everyone else making money and they want in, even if they have no idea what they’re buying, and price becomes dislocated from fundementals. Sure enough, less than a week later, we started the bull rally that we are currently in. Bubbles are formed when people buy something not because of logic or even gut feeling, but when people who previously weren’t involved see their dumb neighbors make tons of money from it, and they don’t want to miss out.
A few days ago, I started getting questions from other friends about what stocks they should buy and if I thought something was a good investment. That inspired me to dig a bit deeper to see how many other people are thinking the same thing.
Data
Ever since March, we’ve seen an unprecedented amount of money pour into the stock market from retail investors.
Google Search Trends
\"what stock should I buy\" Google Trends 2004 - 2020
\"what stock should I buy\" Google Trends 12 months
\"stocks\" Google Trends 2004 - 2020
\"stocks\" Google Trends 12 months
Brokerage data
Robinhood SPY holders
\"Robinhood\" Google Trends 12 months
wallstreetbets' favorite broker Google Trends 12 months
Excerpt from E*Trade earnings statement
Excerpt from Schwab earnings statement
TD Ameritrade Excerpt
Media
cnbc.com Alexa rank
CNBC viewership & rankings
wallstreetbets comments / day

investing comments / day
Analysis
What we can see from Reddit numbers, Google Trends, and CNBC stats is that in between the first week of March and first week of April, we see a massive inflow of retail interest in the stock market. Not only that, but this inflow of interest is coming from all age cohorts, from internet-using Zoomers to TV-watching Boomers. Robinhood SPY holdings and earnings reports from E*Trade, TD Ameritrade, and Schwab have also all confirmed record numbers of new clients, number of trades, and assets. There’s something interesting going on if you look closer at the numbers. The numbers growth in brokers for designed for “less sophisticated” investors (i.e. Robinhood and E*Trade) are much larger than for real brokers (i.e. Schwab and Ameritrade). This implies that the record number of new users and trade volume is coming from dumb money. The numbers shown here only really apply to the US and Canada, but there’s also data to suggest that there’s also record numbers of foreign investors pouring money into the US stock market as well.
However, after the third week of March, we see the interest start to slowly decline and plateau, indicating that we probably have seen most of those new investors who wanted to have a long position in the market do so.
SPX daily
Rationale
Pretty much everything past this point is purely speculation, and isn’t really backed up by any solid data so take whatever I say here with a cup of salt. We could see from the graph that new investor interest started with the first bull trap we saw in the initial decline from early March, and peaking right after the end of the crash in March. So it would be fair to guess that we’re seeing a record amount of interest in the stock market from a “buy the dip” mentality, especially from Robinhood-using Millennials. Here’s a few points on my rationalization of this behavior, based on very weak anecdotal evidence
  • They missed out of their chance of getting in the stock market at the start of the bull market that happened at the end of 2009
  • They’ve all seen the stock market make record gains throughout their adult lives, but believing that the market might be overheated, they were waiting for a crash
  • Most of them have gotten towards the stage of their lives where they actually have some savings and can finally put some money aside for investments
  • This stock market crash seems like their once-in-a-decade opportunity that they’ve been waiting for, so everyone jumped in
  • Everyone’s stuck at their homes with vast amounts of unexpected free time on their hands
Most of these new investors got their first taste in the market near the bottom, and probably made some nice returns. Of course, since they didn’t know what they were doing, they probably put a very small amount of money at first, but after seeing a 10% return over one week, validating that maybe they do know something, they decide to slowly pour in more and more of their life savings. That’s what’s been fueling this bull market.
Sentiment & Magic Crayons
As I mentioned previously, this bull rally will keep going until enough bears convert to bulls. Markets go up when the amount of new bullish positions outnumber the amount of new bearish positions, and vice versa. Record amounts of new investors, who previously never held a position in the market before, fueled the bullish side of this equation, despite all the negative data that has come out and dislocating the price from fundamentals. All the smart money that was shorting the markets saw this happening, and flipped to become bulls because you don’t fight the trend, even if the trend doesn’t reflect reality.
From the data shown above, we can see new investor interest growth has started declining since mid March and started stagnating in early April. The declining volume in SPY since mid-March confirms this. That means, once the sentiment of the new retail investors starts to turn bearish, and everyone figures out how much the stocks they’re holding are really worth, another sell-off will begin. I’ve seen something very similar to this a few years ago with Bitcoin. Near the end of 2017, Bitcoin started to become mainstream and saw a flood of retail investors suddenly signing up for Coinbase (i.e. Robinhood) accounts and buying Bitcoin without actually understanding what it is and how it works. Suddenly everyone, from co-workers to grandparents, starts talking about Bitcoin and might have thrown a few thousand dollars into it. This appears to be a very similar parallel to what’s going on right now. Of course there’s differences here in that equities have an intrinsic value, although many of them have gone way above what they should be intrinsically worth, and the vast majority of retail investors don’t understand how to value companies. Then, during December, when people started thinking that the market was getting a bit overheated, some started taking their profits, and that’s when the prices crashed violently. This flip in sentiment now look like it has started with equities.
SPY daily
Technical Analysis, or magic crayons, is a discipline in finance that uses statistical analysis to predict market trends based on market sentiment. Of course, a lot of this is hand-wavy and is very subjective; two people doing TA on the same price history can end up getting opposite results, so TA should always be taken with a grain of salt and ideally be backed with underlying justification and not be blindly followed. In fact, I’ve since corrected the ascending wedge I had on SPY since my last post since this new wedge is a better fit for the new trading data.
There’s a few things going on in this chart. The entire bull rally we’ve had since the lows can be modelled using a rising wedge. This is a pattern where there is a convergence of a rising support and resistance trendline, along with falling volume. This indicates a slow decline in net bullish sentiment with investors, with smaller and smaller upside after each bounce off the support until it hits a resistance. The smaller the bounces, the less bullish investors are. When the bearish sentiment takes over across investors, the price breaks below this wedge - a breakdown, and indicates a start of another downtrend.
This happened when the wedge hit resistance at around 293, which is around the same price as the 200 day moving average, the 62% retracement (considered to be the upper bound of a bull trap), and a price level that acted as a support and resistance throughout 2019. The fact that it gapped down to break this wedge is also a strong signal, indicating a sudden swing in investor sentiment overnight. The volume of the break down also broke the downwards trend of volume we’ve had since the beginning of the bull rally, indicating a sudden surge of people selling their shares. This doesn’t necessarily mean that we will go straight from here, and I personally think that we will see the completion of a heads-and-shoulders pattern complete before SPY goes below 274, which in itself is a strong support level. In other words, SPY might go from 282 -> 274 -> 284 -> 274 before breaking the 274 support level.
VIX Daily
Doing TA is already sketchy, and doing TA on something like VIX is even more sketchy, but I found this interesting so I’ll mention it. Since the start of the bull rally, we’ve had VIX inside a descending channel. With the breakdown we had in SPY yesterday, VIX has also gapped up to have a breakout from this channel, indicating that we may see future volatility in the next week or so.
Putting Everything Together
Finally, we get to my thesis. This entire bull rally has been fueled by new retail investors buying the dip, bringing the stock price to euphoric levels. Over the past few weeks, we’ve been seeing the people waiting at the sidelines for years to get into the stock market slowly FOMO into the rally in smaller and smaller volumes, while the smart money have been locking in their profits at an even slower rate - hence an ascending wedge. As the amount of new retail interest in the stock market started slowed down, the amount of new bulls started to decline. It looks like Friday might have been the start of the bearish sentiment taking over, meaning it’s likely that 293 was the top, unless any significant bullish events happen in the next two weeks like a fourth round of stimulus, in which case we might see 300. This doesn’t mean we’ll instantly go back to circuit breakers on Monday, and we might see 282 -> 274 -> 284 -> 274 happen before panic, this time by the first-time investors, eventually bringing us down towards SPY 180.
tldr; we've reached the top
EDIT - I'll keep a my live thoughts here as we move throughout this week in case anyone's still reading this and interested.
5/4 8PM - /ES was red last night but steadily climbed, which was expected since 1h RSI was borderline oversold, leaving us to a slightly green day. /ES looks like it has momentum going up, but is approaching towards overbought territory now. Expecting it to go towards 284 (possibly where we'll open tomorrow) and bouncing back down from that price level
5/5 Market Open - Well there goes my price target. I guess at this point it might go up to 293 again, but will need a lot of momentum to push back there to 300. Seems like this is being driven by oil prices skyrocketing.
5/5 3:50PM - Volume for the upwards price action had very little volume behind it. Seeing a selloff EOD today, could go either way although I have a bearish bias. Going to hold cash until it goes towards one end of the 274-293 channel (see last week's thesis). Still believe that we will see it drop below 274 next week, but we might be moving sideways in the channel this week and a bit of next week before that happens. Plan for tomorrow is buy short dated puts if open < 285. Otherwise, wait till it goes to 293 before buying those puts
5/5 6PM - What we saw today could be a false breakout above 284. Need tomorrow to open below 285 for that to be confirmed. If so, my original thesis of it going back down to 274 before bouncing back up will still be in play.
5/6 EOD - Wasn't a false breakout. Looks like it's still forming the head-and-shoulders pattern mentioned before, but 288 instead of 284 as the level. Still not sure yet so I'm personally going to be holding cash and waiting this out for the next few days. Will enter into short positions if we either go near 293 again or drop below 270. Might look into VIX calls if VIX goes down near 30.
5/7 Market Open - Still waiting. If we break 289 we're probably heading to 293. I'll make my entry to short positions when we hit that a second time. There's very little bullish momentum left (see MACD 1D), so if we hit 293 and then drop back down, we'll have a MACD crossover event which many traders and algos use as a sell signal. Oil is doing some weird shit.
5/7 Noon - Looks like we're headed to 293. Picked up VIX 32.5c 5/27 since VIX is near 30.
5/7 11PM - /ES is hovering right above 2910, with 4h and 1h charts are bullish from MACD and 1h is almost overbought in RSI. Unless something dramatic happens we'll probably hit near 293 tomorrow, which is where I'll get some SPY puts. We might drop down before ever touching it, or go all the way to 295 (like last time) during the day, but expecting it to close at or below 293. After that I'm expecting a gap down Monday as we start the final leg down next week towards 274. Expecting 1D MACD to crossover in the final leg down, which will be a signal for bears to take over and institutions / day traders will start selling again
5/8 Market Open - Plan is to wait till a good entry today, either when technicals looks good or we hit 293, and then buy some SPY June 285p and July 275p
5/8 Noon - Everything still going according to plan. Most likely going to slowly inch towards 293 by EOD. Will probably pick up SPY puts and more VIX calls at power hour (3 - 4PM). Monday will probably gap down, although there's a small chance of one more green / sideways day before that happens if we have bullish catalysts on the weekend.
5/8 3:55PM - SPY at 292.60. This is probably going to be the closest we get to 293. Bought SPY 290-260 6/19 debit spreads and 292-272 5/15 debit spreads, as well as doubling down on VIX calls from yesterday, decreasing my cost basis. Still looks like there's room for one more green day on Monday, so I left some money on the side to double down if that's the case, although it's more likely than not we won't get there.
5/8 EOD - Looks like we barely touched 293 exactly AH before rebounding down. Too bad you can't buy options AH, but more convinced we'll see a gap down on Monday. Going to work on another post over the weekend and do my updates there. Have a great weekend everyone!
submitted by ASoftEngStudent to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

Flatten the Curve. #18. The current cold war between China and America explained. And how China was behind the 2008 Wall Street financial Crash. World War 3 is coming.

China, the USA, and the Afghanistan war are linked. And in order to get here, we will start there.
9-11 happened. Most of the planet mistakenly understood terrorists had struck a blow against Freedom and Capitalism and Democracy. It was time to invade Afghanistan. Yet all of the terrorists were linked to Saudi Arabia and not Afghanistan, that didn't make sense either. Yet they invaded to find Bin Laden, an ex CIA asset against the Soviet Union and it's subjugation of Afghanistan. The land in the middle of nowhere in relation to North America and the West. It was barren. A backwater without any strategic importance or natural resources.
Or was there?
The survey for rare earth elements was only made possible by the 2001 U.S. invasion, with work beginning in 2004. Mirzad says the Russians had already done significant surveying work during their military occupation of the country in the 1980s. Mirzad also toes the line for U.S. corporations, arguing, “The Afghan government should not touch the mining business. We have to give enough information to potential investors.”
Rare Earth Elements. The elements that make the information age possible. People could understand the First Gulf War and the Geopolitical importance of oil. That was easy, but it still didn't sound morally just to have a war for oil. It was too imperialist and so they fell in line and supported a war for Kuwaiti freedom instead, despite the obvious and public manipulation at the UN by Nayirah.
This is some of her testimony to the Human Rights Council.
While I was there, I saw the Iraqi soldiers come into the hospital with guns. They took the babies out of the incubators, took the incubators and left the children to die on the cold floor. It was horrifying. I could not help but think of my nephew who was born premature and might have died that day as well. After I left the hospital, some of my friends and I distributed flyers condemning the Iraqi invasion until we were warned we might be killed if the Iraqis saw us.
The Iraqis have destroyed everything in Kuwait. They stripped the supermarkets of food, the pharmacies of medicine, the factories of medical supplies, ransacked their houses and tortured neighbors and friends.
There was only one problem. She was the daughter of Saud Al-Sabah, the Kuwaiti ambassador to the United States. Furthermore, it was revealed that her testimony was organized as part of the Citizens for a Free Kuwait public relations campaign, which was run by the American public relations firm Hill & Knowlton for the Kuwaiti government (fun fact, Hill & Knowlton also have extensive ties with Bill Gates).
So the public was aghast at her testimony and supported the war against the mainly Soviet backed, but also American supported and Soviet backed Saddam Hussein, in his war against Iran, after the Iranians refused to Ally with American interests after the Islamic Revolution.
But that was oil, this was Rare Earth Elements. There was a reason the war was called, Operation Enduring Freedom. This natural resource was far more important in the long run. You couldn't have a security surveillance apparatus without it. And what was supposed to be a war on terror was in actuality a territorial occupation for resources.
Sleeping Dragon China is next, and where there's smoke, there's fire.
Let's go point form for clarity.
• China entered the rare earth market in the mid-1980s, at a time when the US was the major producer. But China soon caught up and became the production leader for rare earths. Its heavily state-supported strategy was aimed at dominating the global rare earth industry.
• 1989 Beijing’s Tiananmen Square spring. The U.S. government suspends military sales to Beijing and freezes relations.
• 1997. Clinton secures the release of Wei and Tiananmen Square protester Wang Dan. Beijing deports both dissidents to the United States. (If you don't understand these two were CIA assets working in China, you need to accept that not everything will be published. America wouldn't care about two political activists, but why would care about two intelligence operatives).
• March 1996. Taiwan’s First Free Presidential Vote.
• May 1999. America "accidently" bombs the Belgrade Chinese Embassy.
• 2002 Price competitiveness was hard for the USA to achieve due to low to non-existent Chinese environmental standards; as a result, the US finally stopped its rare earth production.
• October 2000. U.S. President Bill Clinton signs the U.S.-China Relations Act. China's take over of the market share in rare earth elements starts to increase.
• October 2001. Afghanistan war Enduring Freedom started to secure rare earth elements (Haven't you ever wondered how they could mobilize and invade so quickly? The military was already prepared).
• 2005. China establishes a monopoly on global production by keeping mineral prices low and then panics markets by introducing export quotas to raise prices by limiting supply.
• Rare Earth Elements. Prices go into the stratosphere (for example, dysprosium prices do a bitcoin, rocketing from $118/kg to $2,262/kg between 2008 and 2011).
• In a September 2005. Deputy Secretary of State Robert B. Zoellick initiates a strategic dialogue with China. This was presented as dialog to acknowledge China's emergence as a Superpower (which China probably insisted on), but it was about rare earth elements market price.
• October 2006. China allows North Korea to conduct its first nuclear test, China serves as a mediator to bring Pyongyang back to the negotiating table with the USA.
• September 2006. American housing prices start to fall.
(At some point after this, secret negotiations must have become increasingly hostile).
• March 2007. China Increases Military Spending. U.S. Vice President Dick Cheney says China’s military buildup is “not consistent” with the country’s stated goal of a “peaceful rise.”
• Mid-2005 and mid-2006. China bought between $100b and $250 billion of US housing debt between mid-2005 and mid-2006. This debt was bought using the same financial instruments that caused the financial collapse.
• 2006. Housing prices started to fall for the first time in decades.
• Mid-2006 and mid-2007. China likely added another $390b to its reserves. "At the same time, if China stopped buying -- especially now, when the private market is clogged up -- US financial markets would really seize up." Council on Foreign Relations-2007 August
• February 27, 2007. Stock markets in China and the U.S. fell by the most since 2003. Investors leave the money market and flock to Government backed Treasury Bills.
I've never seen it like this before,'' said Jim Galluzzo, who began trading short-maturity Treasuries 20 years ago and now trades bills at RBS Greenwich Capital in Greenwich, Connecticut.Bills right now are trading like dot-coms.''
We had clients asking to be pulled out of money market funds and wanting to get into Treasuries,'' said Henley Smith, fixed-income manager in New York at Castleton Partners, which oversees about $150 million in bonds.People are buying T-bills because you know exactly what's in it.''
• February 13, 2008. The Economic Stimulus Act of 2008 was enacted, which included a tax rebate. The total cost of this bill was projected at $152 billion for 2008. A December 2009 study found that only about one-third of the tax rebate was spent, providing only a modest amount of stimulus.
• September 2008. China Becomes Largest U.S. Foreign Creditor at 600 billion dollars.
• 2010. China’s market power peaked in when it reached a market share of around 97% of all rare earth mineral production. Outside of China, there were almost no other producers left.
Outside of China, the US is the second largest consumer of rare earths in the world behind Japan.
About 60% of US rare earth imports are used as catalysts for petroleum refining, making it the country’s major consumer of rare earths.
The US military also depends on rare earths. Many of the most advanced US weapon systems, including smart bombs, unmanned drones, cruise missiles, laser targeting, radar systems and the Joint Strike Fighter programme rely on rare earths. Against this background, the US Department of Defense (DoD) stated that “reliable access to the necessary material is a bedrock requirement for DOD”
• 2010. A trade dispute arose when the Chinese government reduced its export quotas by 40% in 2010, sending the rare earths prices in the markets outside China soaring. The government argued that the quotas were necessary to protect the environment.
• August 2010. China Becomes World’s Second-Largest Economy.
• November 2011. U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton outlines a U.S. “pivot” to Asia. Clinton’s call for “increased investment—diplomatic, economic, strategic, and otherwise—in the Asia-Pacific region” is seen as a move to counter China’s growing clout.
• December 2011. U.S. President Barack Obama announces the United States and eight other nations have reached an agreement on the Trans-Pacific Partnership later announces plans to deploy 2,500 marines in Australia, prompting criticism from Beijing.
• November 2012. China’s New Leadership. Xi Jinping replaces Hu Jintao as president, Communist Party general secretary, and chairman of the Central Military Commission. Xi delivers a series of speeches on the “rejuvenation” of China.
• June 2013. U.S. President Barack Obama hosts Chinese President Xi Jinping for a “shirt-sleeves summit”
• May 19, 2014. A U.S. court indicts five Chinese hackers, allegedly with ties to China’s People’s Liberation Army, on charges of stealing trade technology from U.S. companies.
• November 12, 2014. Joint Climate Announcement. Barack Obama and Chinese President Xi Jinping issue a joint statement on climate change, pledging to reduce carbon emissions. (which very conveniently allows the quotas to fall and save pride for Xi).
• 2015. China drops the export quotas because in 2014, the WTO ruled against China.
• May 30, 2015 U.S. Warns China Over South China Sea. (China is trying to expand it's buffer zone to build a defense for the coming war).
• January 2016. The government to abolish the one-child policy, now allowing all families to have two children.
• February 9, 2017. Trump Affirms One China Policy After Raising Doubts.
• April 6 – 7, 2017. Trump Hosts Xi at Mar-a-Lago. Beijing and Washington to expand trade of products and services like beef, poultry, and electronic payments, though the countries do not address more contentious trade issues including aluminum, car parts, and steel.
• November 2017. President Xi meets with President Trump in another high profile summit.
• March 22, 2018. Trump Tariffs Target China. The White House alleges Chinese theft of U.S. technology and intellectual property. Coming on the heels of tariffs on steel and aluminum imports, the measures target goods including clothing, shoes, and electronics and restrict some Chinese investment in the United States.
• July 6, 2018 U.S.-China Trade War Escalates.
• September 2018. Modifications led to the exclusion of rare earths from the final list of products and they consequently were not subject to import tariffs imposed by the US government in September 2018.
• October 4, 2018. Pence Speech Signals Hard-Line Approach. He condemns what he calls growing Chinese military aggression, especially in the South China Sea, criticizes increased censorship and religious persecution by the Chinese government, and accuses China of stealing American intellectual property and interfering in U.S. elections.
• December 1, 2018. Canada Arrests Huawei Executive.
• March 6, 2019. Huawei Sues the United States.
• March 27 2019. India and the US signed an agreement to "strengthen bilateral security and civil nuclear cooperation" including the construction of six American nuclear reactors in India
• May 10, 2019. Trade War Intensifies.
• August 5, 2019. U.S. Labels China a Currency Manipulator.
• November 27, 2019. Trump Signs Bill Supporting Hong Kong Protesters. Chinese officials condemn the move, impose sanctions on several U.S.-based organizations, and suspend U.S. warship visits to Hong Kong.
• January 15, 2020. ‘Phase One’ Trade Deal Signed. But the agreement maintains most tariffs and does not mention the Chinese government’s extensive subsidies. Days before the signing, the United States dropped its designation of China as a currency manipulator.
• January 31, 2020. Tensions Soar Amid Coronavirus Pandemic.
• March 18, 2020. China Expels American Journalists. The Chinese government announces it will expel at least thirteen journalists from three U.S. newspapers—the New York Times, Wall Street Journal, and Washington Post—whose press credentials are set to expire in 2020. Beijing also demands that those outlets, as well as TIME and Voice of America, share information with the government about their operations in China. The Chinese Foreign Ministry says the moves are in response to the U.S. government’s decision earlier in the year to limit the number of Chinese journalists from five state-run media outlets in the United States to 100, down from 160, and designate those outlets as foreign missions.
And here we are. You may have noticed the Rare Earth Elements and the inclusion of Environmental Standards. Yes these are key to understanding the Geopolitical reality and importance of these events. There's a reason the one child policy stopped. Troop additions.
I believe our current political reality started at Tiananmen square. The protests were an American sponsored attempt at regime change after the failure to convince them to leave totalitarian communism and join a greater political framework.
Do I have proof? Yes.
China, as far as I'm concerned, was responsible for the 2008 economic crisis. The Rare Earth Elements were an attempt to weaken the States and strengthen themselves simultaneously. This stranglehold either forced America to trade with China, or the trade was an American Trojan horse to eventually collapse their economy and cause a revolution after Tiananmen Square failed. Does my second proposal sound far fetched? Didn't the economy just shut down in response to the epidemic? Aren't both sides blaming the other? At this POINT, the epidemic seems to be overstated doesn’t it? Don't the casualties tend to the elder demographic and those already weakened by a primary disease?
Exactly the kinds who wouldn't fight in a war.
Does this change some of my views on the possibility of upcoming catastrophes and reasons for certain events? No. This is Chess, and there are obvious moves in chess, hidden moves in chess, but the best moves involve peices which can be utilized in different ways if the board calls for it.
Is all what it seems? No.
I definitely changed a few previously held beliefs prior to today, and I would caution you in advance that you will find some previously held convictions challenged.
After uncovering what I did today, I would also strongly suggest reading information cautiously. This is all merely a culmination of ending the cold war, and once I have events laid out, you will see it as well.
At this moment, the end analysis is a war will start in the near future. This will be mainly for a few reasons, preemptive resource control for water and crops, population reduction can be achieved since we have too many people, not enough jobs, and upcoming resource scarcity.
Did you notice my omission of rare earth elements? This is because of Afghanistan. I would wager China or Russia is somehow supporting the continued resistance through Iran. But events are now accelerating with China because the western collation has already begun to build up their mines and start production.
Do you remember when Trump made a "joke" about buying Greenland? Yeah. It turns out that Greenland has one of the largest rare earth mineral deposits on the planet.
Take care. Be safe. Stay aware and be prepared.
This message not brought to you by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, Microsoft, Google, Facebook, Elon Musk, Blackrock, Vangaurd, the Rockefeller Foundation, Rand Corporation, DARPA, Rothschilds, Agenda 21, Agenda 30, and ID 2020.
submitted by biggreekgeek to conspiracy [link] [comments]

What will undoubtedly happen from a macroeconomic (big picture) perspective... idiots

OKAY. So demand has been reduced dramatically around the world, our $21 trillion GDP has basically been paused for 2 months, so to keep it afloat (rough math), the government had to add $3.5 trillion to keep the economy running somewhat smoothly. That's a lot of printing, you idiots probably expect inflation. Wrong, step away from the US and look at what other countries are doing, the ECB (European Central Bank) and BOJ (Bank of Japan) are having to print trillions of dollars worth of EURO and YEN to keep their economies going, along with every other country getting pounded. Not only that, but since the US dollar makes up 70% of global transactions, in liquidity terms, trillions worth of euro and yen is MUCH MUCH more than any amount Jpow feels like printing, there's no way our printing could offset what the rest of the world is doing, so inflation isn't coming. If you want proof, just look at the euro/usd (going lower) and literally ANY emerging market currency is getting absolutely clapped vs the dollar.

Furthermore, not only is US corporate debt at an all time high, but emerging markets, the eurozone, and asia has borrowed more dollars than ever before at any point in history, basically everyone around the world's debt is denominated in US DOLLARS. So what's about to happen? It's already happening, demand for US dollars is going up because everyone around the world wants to borrow more to offset cash flow concerns and pay off existing debts, which will cause the dollar to increase in value. What happens when the whole world has debt in dollars and the dollar goes up in value? DEBT BECOMES MORE EXPENSIVE. This is DEFLATION, and in particular and even more terrifying DEBT DEFLATION, a phrase that would make Jpow absolutely shit himself (and he knows its coming). This has already started before the whole beervirus nonsense, look at Venezuela and Zimbabwe, they had too much dollar debt, no one wanted to lend to them anymore and whoops, their currency is worthless now. It's going to be like a game of musical chairs for people trying to get access to dollars, starting with emerging markets and eventually moving into the more developed economies. The result: massive corporate bankruptcies, countries defaulting on debt (devaluing their currencies) and eventually a deleveraging of massive proportions. This WILL occur and no amount of printing can stop it, it's already too far gone.

It doesn't matter what the stock market does, other markets around the world will be fucked, honestly it might cause the market to go up because of all the money fleeing other countries trying to find a safe place to live. Here are the plays assholes. TLT will go up because no matter what Jpow says, he doesn't control the fed funds rate, the market does, and US treasury bond yields have already priced in bonds going negative. CPI shows that we may see up to -3% inflation (3% deflation), meaning at .25% fed funds rate, the REAL rate is 3.25%, that is the worst thing possible during a deleveraging because it makes it harder to stimulate the economy, the fed has no choice, rates MUST go lower. Rates go lower, bond prices go up, TLT 12/18 $205c. Remember how I said scared foreign money will want to find a nice safe place to go when we go into the biggest debt crisis the world has seen in over 300 years? GLD 12/18 $240c. Finally, the dollar will rise in value as well so UUP 12/18 $28c.

As far the actual market, we hit a high of SPY 339.08 in February, fell to a low of 218.26 by mid March, and have since then retraced EXACTLY to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 290, and started to bounce lower from there. I'm no technical analyst, but I do know history. During the greatest crashes in stock market history, 1929, 2001, 2008, the Nikkei in 1989 (Japan) this exact same thing happened, market got scared and fell to lows, then smoked that good hopium for a few weeks or month to retrace between 50% and 61.8% back to previews highs, then absolutely fell off a cliff. If you don't believe me, go look at the charts. Now, I'm personally not going to be betting on the US market falling because of the fact that its just straight up not reflecting reality and there are much better ways to trade on what's occurring (see trades above), but I PROMISE, that we will not be seeing new highs at any point any time soon.

TLDR; The world is going to shit due to the dollars over-dominance of the world market, we will soon see the worst deleveraging in human history, and may very well have to come up with a new fiat money system (probably not bitcoin, but it wouldn't hurt to have some). TLT 12/18 $205c, GLD 12/18 $240c, and UUP 12/18 $28c. If you wanna be an autist and buy weeklys, I can't help you, but I basically just gave you the next big short, so you're welcome.

DISCLAIMER: I didn't say what price to buy at for a reason, timing is extremely important for trades like this, so don't FOMO in and overpay, you will get clapped.
submitted by Rezuwrecked_ to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

How I plan to identify and sell the top of the next market cycle.

In this post I will share with you some of the strategies I will use to identify the next market cycle top so I can sell for maximum profits (and of course buy back in later in the subsequent bear market!) In the first part of this post I will discuss the resources I will use and in the second part I will discuss tactics in selling and risk management.

Indicators

As the bull run begins to drag on and the price of ETH starts getting closer and closer to $10k I will begin to start watching many of the data science charts over at Look into Bitcoin. This will not be the only source I will use since there are great custom tools on TradingView too as well as more subjective indicators such as friends and family talking crypto and hearing about crypto again in the mainstream media. I’d also like to note that many of the indicators I will be looking at will be Bitcoin focused despite my ETH centred portfolio. Like it or not, this market is still Bitcoin dominated and despite the many proponents of an ETH flippening (myself included), it is quite likely that we will not see it this cycle due to the macro investing environment favouring assets which are good stores of value to weather the uncertainty. Ultimately, Bitcoin has the best store of value meme in crypto and that will be very powerful in the coming years.
I think it is likely that the time for Ethereum or a network like Ethereum with a yielding asset (ETH under ETH 2.0) and a native economy of DeFi, DApps, NFTs and much more will be once all of the stock market uncertainty is over and investors are ready to take on more risk again. I am of course still expecting Ethereum and altcoins to outperform Bitcoin this cycle. However, I think that Bitcoin losing the number 1 spot will be more likely to happen between 2023 and 2030 rather than in the next 2-3 years. I hope I am wrong though.
While most of the indicators on Looking into Bitcoin are useful, I will list the ones I’ll be focusing on the most here:
And finally my favourite, the Golden Ratio Multiplier. This indicator has been remarkably accurate at predicting tops using the golden ratio (1.6) and the fibonacci sequence (0, 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21) multiplied by the 350 day moving average. With each market cycle, the 350 day moving average is multiplied by the next number down in the fibonacci sequence. For example, the 2013 peak only just passed above the 350 day moving average multiplied by 8 and the 2017 bull market just touched the 350 day moving average multiplied by 5. So if this indicator is to work in the next cycle, we can expect the price to slightly exceed 3 times the value of the 350 day moving average. This indicator also worked for Ethereum in the 2017 bull run. While there is no graph for it, on the 13th of January, when ETH hit a peak of $1,419, the 350 day moving average was at $270. $270 multiplied by 5 is $1,350. If you sold at $1,350 you sold incredibly close to the top and I don’t think that any macro traders/long term traders would complain about that timing.
I’d like to note that while indicators like the Golden Ratio Multiplier factors in for less explosive growth each cycle, not all of the above indicators do. So be cautious of this when you think the peak is near as it may be closer than you think. In saying that, there is a lot of luck involved so I should also point out that it also might not be closer than you think. However, it would be better to sell before the peak at say $10,000/BTC as of 2017 than to be left holding all of your crypto when the bear market begins since Bitcoin didn’t spend much time above $10,000/BTC after the $20K peak. Ultimately it is up to you to decide your risk appetite and how well you want to try and time the market. For me, I will definitely be on the conservative side so that I don’t miss the boat completely and hopefully I will be able to sell most of my crypto just before we peak rather than afterwards.

Risk Management

Since timing the top requires a lot of luck, a good method of mitigating the risk is to spread out when you sell. I’m going to share with you my personal strategy but I recommend that you create your own strategy or use this as a basis from which you can use to adjust and tweak it to optimally suit your situation. If you have a large stack, you will probably want to sell early since you might not need such spectacular gains to lock in some life changing money. On the other hand, if you have a smaller stack or if you are younger, you can afford to take more risk and might want to try and time the absolute peak a bit better to get that much closer to making some life changing money. Personally, while my stack isn’t very big in dollar terms, it is a significant % of my net worth and so I don’t have a high risk tolerance with it (at least relative to other people in crypto!) For this reason I will be selling a little bit on the early side.
My plan has three pots of crypto. 20% of my crypto I will hold indefinitely since I very strongly believe in the long term prospect of ETH and BTC as investments. This way if I time the markets terribly, I will always have some skin in the crypto game. The second pot of crypto is 40% which I will sell on the way up to take some profits and I don’t intend on putting this money back into crypto. Initially I will be selling very small amounts of this 40% and as the indicators listed above get closer and closer to calling a top, I will sell larger proportions of this crypto. I haven’t set specific target numbers since things change fast in this space and I feel like the best decisions in this case are made in the moment. For example, estimating a market top is hard when it is 2-3 years away, but it is much easier when it is just months or weeks away. Once again, this is just personal preference. Many of you will find that setting targets now makes it easier for you to pull the trigger and take some profits when everyone else is calling $1M BTC while it is at $100K or calling for $100K ETH when the current price might be $10K.
Finally, the last 40% I will sell all at once when I feel like we are at the top and I am confident that the price will be lower a year on from that point in time. With this 40% I will try and buy back during the bear market with the help of many of the same indicators I listed above from Look into Bitcoin. I will also use some indicators which I didn’t mention above since some are better designed at identifying market bottoms. My goal is to be able to buy back the number of BTC and ETH I held before I sold anything with this 40% (plus the 20% I didn’t sell). This is a big ask but it is better in life to set hard goals that seem unattainable or unrealistic than it is to set easy goals.
To summarise my portfolio strategy, 20% of my portfolio is an indefinite hold, 40% I will sell on the way up and I do not intend on buying back into crypto with this money so I can avoid being over-exposed to crypto. The last 40% I will use to try and sell the top and buy the bottom.

Closing Notes

As a closing note I would like to say that it will be important to be aware of the power of greed and FOMO. Do not under-estimate these emotions and try to remain a grounded and rational investor. Don’t be scared to take profits. I know from experience trading altcoins that it is better to exit a position early and miss out on another 100% price increase than it is to hold through a bear market and take >90% losses. If you go into this bullrun telling yourself you will take profits on the way up, you will have no reason to regret any early sales since you will know that you made a rational trade and not an emotional trade.
submitted by Tricky_Troll to CryptoCurrency [link] [comments]

Will XMR be like Tesla stock? Widely discounted and under-valued... until it's not?

It wasn't that long ago that Tesla stock was trading at sub-$200 (May 2019), and many people were speculating on Tesla's demise.
If you did a fair evaluation of where Tesla were at the time, and where they said they were going... not much has changed inbetween. Still using the same technology, same factories, and still have the same product pipeline.
If you'd really been paying attention, their 2020 Q1 earnings were no surprise. It was only really the herd's sentiment that changed.
Tesla is now trading close to $1,000/share level, 5x more.
I wonder if there are any parallels with Tesla stock price and the Monero market cap.
Right now it's trading slightly above the levels of 2017 (pre-Bitcoin pump). However, in practice, the technology and UX has improved significantly. Off the top of my head improvements since 2017 include:
Currently the market cap of Monero is less than 1/100 of Bitcoin. However, it's not clear that Monero has less than 1/100 the utility. Therefore the price is more a reflection of demand than it is utility. And demand could potentially change at any minute.
Which leads to the next question... what would need to change, between now and then, to stimulate this?
Possible thoughts from my end:
Thoughts / comments / criticism on the above?
submitted by apxs94 to xmrtrader [link] [comments]

🦇UaBat🦇🔥 Unions are finally here🔥 Travis S. Dunks SAMPLE🔥 Shoe of the month🔥 🔥

Damn, this post is making me remember the start. How it all began.
Anyways,

1. Shoe of the month:

I let my instagram followers decide what the shoe of the month should be, and the Jordan 1's won (another reason why you should follow me on Insta).
The discounted price will be 117$ shipped. The discounted pairs are the Obsidians and the Bred Toe.
Moreover, this time the discount will start on Monday, 13 April, and end on Sunday, 19 April. I usually do it at the end of the month (25th to the end of the month) but this time is an exception because of the Unions.
you can find pictures of (some of) my Jordans on my YUPOO. I will upload more when I got time haha.

EDIT: Oops I forgot to say, Obsidians and Bred Toe are now 117$ on my website!

2. Unions:

SOOOOOOO
Simply said, QC starts on Monday, 13 April, for people who have previously ordered (I'm sorry for the delays guys I promise you the pairs are perfect😢).
We will be producing about 30-50 pairs per day. I think that all old orders will be finished and supplied with their shoes in about 1 week.
On Saturday 18/04 at 00:00 Beijing time, I will open orders on my website.
Saturday 18/04 at 00:00 Beijing time is:
However, this is how it will go: (Not following those steps will cause your order to be canceled)
SOOO, the method:
  1. Once I allow new orders, just order normally on my website. I suggest that you create an account and login beforehand (just a couple of minutes) to be quick ;) Everyone will get pairs, but the faster you order, the higher up on the waiting list you are.
  2. Once you order, contact me on WhatsApp or WeChat and ONLY give me your ORDER NUMBER. You do NOT have to be fast for this, take your time and do it correctly so I can actually give you a pair. Just text me "My order number is XXXXX" without the "#" or anything else. This way, once your pair is ready, I can search your order number on WhatsApp or WeChat and I will directly find it. I know many people will say "we don't have WeChat or WhatsApp can I do it here or on Instagram" and the answer is sure, but I highly recommend doing it on WhatsApp or WeChat. WhatsApp is free and easy to download. In summary, after ordering on WhatsApp text me "my Order number is XXXXX" where XXXX = your order number, but don't add # or anything. No need to be quick for this step, since I will follow the website order.
  3. There is NO need to pay directly. I will only ask for a payment 72 hours before I am sure that I can get your shoes. However, if you don't mind paying, send me a second message saying "I do not mind paying yet". Again, NO need to pay directly. However, it's better for me since I still have to pay my staff and factory workers etc. Paying doesn't mean you will manage to skip the waiting list or anything. Paying more doesn't mean that you can skip the waiting list either. I had people offer me up to 75$ more to reserve them a pair. While I think that's cool, and thank you for that, but I cannot accept taking more money I just don't like it. No need to pay more than others you know. It's unfair.
  4. So ya as I mentioned in step 3, after you text me "My order number is XXXX" you must wait until it's your turn. Once I know that I will be able to get your pair within 72 to 96 hours, I will text you saying "You have 24 hours to pay or your order will be canceled." I am sorry for this, but I must be fair. The message is self explanatory, you have 24 hours to pay for your orders or it will be canceled. This might sound harsh, but don't forget the people waiting as well. I must stay fair.
  5. Ordering and not paying will also probably result in you not being able to take part in such waiting lists anymore, since I plan on doing this waiting list for my next shoes as well. Again, this sounds harsh I know, but imagine someone ordering, which means that I will make a pair just for them, but they they don't buy it. Therefore, only order if you are sure that you want to buy.
  6. Anyways, after sending you the 'pay in 24 hours' message, considering that you have paid, you will wait a few days (up to 3 or 4) until you get QC. It's normal from here. You get QC, GL (or RL) and I ship. If you RL I will not put you to the back of the list as some people might have said, but it might take a couple of days since I might not have any stock in your size for the next couple of days.
  7. Regarding paying via PayPal, you can only pay using Friends and Family. Moreover, only put your order number in the notes section. so for example the notes section should say "1001234" not "Order number is 1001234" or anything. just 1001234

In summary, Friday, 17/04 4:00 PM (16:00) GMT you order, then give me your order number on WhatsApp or WeChat. You can either pay directly or wait. Once it's your turn, and if you haven't paid yet, I will text you and give you 24 hours to pay. after paying, you will wait a bit then receive QC and continue the usual process. if you don't pay, your order will be canceled and you will not be able to join such waiting lists no more. It is easy to change your name or number, but the address is hard haha.
Lastly, ALL unions are now True to size just like the real unions.

3. Travis Scott Dunks:

Many people are getting impatient. In my last post, I said that I need up to 1 month to finish them, and I think that I need even less. HERE IS THE FIRST SAMPLE.
It might not look perfect, but don't forget, this is the first sample. I still think it's good, but it can be better. The first Unions sample was horrible (I never posted that one). This is simply because the first time, I have to literally reconstruct the shoes from scratch. However, once I have a first sample, I can easily compare it to my retail pairs (I have 4 retail pairs in different sizes.) and can easily pinpoint the flaws. Don't worry, it will be perfect just as always :D
Regarding the ordering process, I'm not sure how I will do it but I've paid a lot for the Dunks till now. I might take some pre-orders, but I'm unsure. If the "waiting-list" method I'm currently doing with the Unions goes well, I will do the same for the dunks.
Regarding price, I still don't know because I don't know all my costs yet.
Tell me what you think by replying to my comment "TS Dunks". I will literally comment "TS Dunks" and please reply to that comment so I can see all the replies. Moreover, if you notice that someone has already mentioned the flaw that you want to talk about, just upvote his reply. This is way more organized and easier for me to not lose track. I will be writing down all the flaws you guys see and will firstly identify if they are actual flaws (since sometimes some people compare my rep to for example StockX images, which are inaccurate, and/or because each pair differs, but it isn't really a flaw), and secondly (if it is a flaw) to fix it obviously. However, having 1000 comments all over the place will be very hard to track haha.

4. What to produce next

and before anyone says "FiNiSh YoUr CuRrEnT oRdErS", let me explain something:
there are phases to replicating a pair of shoes. It all starts by actually knowing how to replicate it. This includes things like knowing where's what, what changes on every pair of shoes, what doesn't change,... Basically understanding the design and "making the replica" so knowing how to produce it. You cannot just give it to someone at the factory and tell them "make me a 1:1 copy."
However, once a pair of shoes reaches production, such as the unions right now, and the Dunks very soon, I have no work left. I must wait while people at the factory make the pairs. Think about it like this: I must make the program that cuts the pieces and must know the dimensions etc. However, right now is just the production.
So ya, once I finish the "how to replicate the shoes", I sit down and wait while the factory makes the reps.
This is the perfect time to start working on the next pair of shoes (instead of just wasting time waiting for the factory to finish producing the shoes).

Click here to vote for the shoes you want me to replicate next.

5. Prices

Some of you have been complaining about my prices, saying that they are too much or I should charge less because those are reps not retail. Let me explain:
  1. This job is actually stressful. I sleep 3-4 hours on average. I've got some hideous bags under my eyes due to the lack of sleep. I'm always working, always active,.. Time is money guys don't forget that. Opportunity cost.. Instead of working about 20 hours per day on reps, I could do anything else and with 20 hours a day, even if you work for 5$/hour, that's already 100$ per day, and I don't have a holiday every Saturday and Sunday, don't forget that. I'm not complaining, I'm just explaining my point of view.
  2. Most of the money goes to the factory. So if the shoes are not my batch, I'm not the one making most of the money, it's the factory.
  3. Making a .75:1 batch is wayyyy easier than a 1:1. It's not linear.
  4. Prices are not as cheap as you think. You think a pair of shoes costs me 20$. I'm not nike.. I actually care about my workers conditions and pay them well..
  5. Some say prices shouldn't be like retail prices. Well firstly, sure if you get retail on those shoes congrats I'm very happy for you. However, most people are buying shoes which resell for hundreds, if not thousands of dollars. Moreover, Nike's costs are less, so if Nike charges 180$ for a pair of Jordan 1's, it should be more than fair to charge something around that price because my costs are surely higher than Nike's. Some people might say "but your products are reps and are not of the same quality." I can assure you that my Union AJ1's have the same, if not better, MATERIALS (leather etc..) than the real Unions. I have 4 pairs of real Unions haha. Same goes for my Jordan 1's and many other shoes, specially those supervised by me.
  6. Making the shoe is easier than replicating it. A designer made the shoes and just did whatever he wanted without following any guides, whereas I have to make shoe that are 1:1 like how the designer made them. For example, when they made the Union 1's, they didn't have to make the Wingslogo Xxcm long and YYcm wide or anything. Whereas I have to do that

6. Misconceptions:

Many people ask about which shoes I make, this is the answer:
there are 3 (2) types of UaBat batch:
  1. Shoes made and supervised by me such as The Unions, Dunks, Jordan 1 Obsidian,...
  2. Shoes that are made in my factory but I didn't directly supervise them, but gave them to someone responsible to make them, but I didn't sit with him all the time and worked on it with him like in "1."
  3. Best batch if I don't have the shoes from my factory of if I think that another factory has a better batch.

7. "added services"

I have no clue what to call this, but I have had so many people, specially from Germany and Europe ask me if I can ship their pair to a middleman in Europe and then the middleman would ship it to them. They are afraid of customs. I could do that, and I told them that all I would charge them is the national shipping cost, so about 10€ for Germany.
However, I have a better method. For 10$ (10$ < 10€), I can give you some kind of insurance. No matter what happens to the package, I will take care of it. I will do the customs clearance etc.. If customs ask for a proof of payment I can make and send you a proper one, not just a PayPal invoice since some people said that it doesn't always work. If that doesn't work, I will obviously send a new pair nonetheless.

8. How to order & Contact info:

WeChat: UA-Bat
WhatsApp: +1 646 637 7762
Website: UAbat.com
Yupoo: uabat.x.yupoo.com
Instagram: UA.Bat
The prices on my website include shipping.
To order, check my website to see if the shoes are in stock in the colosize you want, then place an order on the website. You will get an order number. Contact me on WhatsApp or WeChat and give me your order number and ask for payment info. I accept PayPal (only friends and family), Bitcoin, and the other known methods. Once you have paid, wait for you QC. Once you GL your QC, I will ship just like with all other sellers. In the PayPal notes section, ONLY write the order number for example "12345", don't write "Order number is 12345" or anything else, just the number.

P.S. uAgent on the way👀 (or some other name unsure yet)

Edit: This is how I will drop the Unions again once my website goes live

submitted by UAbat to FashionReps [link] [comments]

WMT vs AMZN?

For Trading JULY 8th
JOLTs 5.4 vs. 5 Million
NVAX gets $1.6B from BARDA
Today’s market got off to a very soft start in the DJIA but not so much in the NASDAQ and S&P-500, with the DJIA starting off -240 and managing a rally only as far as -125 before spending several hours going sideways until the last hour of trading when the NASDAQ and S&P ran out of steam and fell below the close and the selloff resumed. It’s never a good thing when and overbought index makes a new all-time high and then closes down and on the lows. The DJIA was -396.85 (1.51%), NASDAQ -89.76 (.86%), S&P 500 -34.30 (1.08%), the Russell -26.89 (1.86%) and the DJ Transports -108 (1.1%). The internals were 3:1 down on NYSE and 2.5:1 on NASDAQ with volume on the NYSE 2:1 down also. The DJIA was 28 down and only 2 up with WMT the big gainer +55 DP’s and on the downside, BA-62, GS -55, and UNH -43DP’s. Even with the good JOLTs number, this market is just over-extended and tired. The stat I mentioned in tonight’s video about the S&P is very telling, I think, with the S&P only 2% off its high, the median S&P stock is down 11%. This market has simply gotten too narrow and it will correct.
We sold half of the remaining NEM 7/17 $60’s bought @ 1.55 and added to last Friday @ $1.30 for an average of $1.47 triggered a 100% Up Rule sale at $2.94, and today’s sale was @ $3.20. They closed today $3.20. We also own a position in SLV 8/21 17 calls @ $ .74, and they closed $ .75, and we also added a spread using the NEM 8/65 / 70 calls at a $1.30 debit.
Tonight’s closing comment video https://youtu.be/5afUNy48sFI
Our Discord Forum link is on the video description..
SECTORS: The FAANG names all finished near the lows, several like MSFT coming off a new all-time high and closing down on the day. Not a good sign if they follow-thru to the downside tomorrow. Also having trouble was CCL, who has had to cancel several cruises for Q4 and Q1 2021. It closed $14.57 -1.04 (6.7%). Add to that, the UAL report that it is giving warnings that it will be laying off “10’2 of thousands of employees.” UAL finished $32.55 -2.66 (7.55%). These two companies do not operate in a vacuum, so both groups are in jeopardy, again. Novavax (NVAX) got a $1.6billion grant from BARDA (Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority) to help it along in it’s search for a workable vaccine. The stock, up from $8 as late as the end of February had worked its way up to $85 last month and opened today $104 and traded as high as $111.77 and finished $104.56 +25.12 (31.63%). Don’t get too crazy with this one, this is not its first rodeo. In 2015 it was trading $300 before it had a failure on a different vaccine and the stock fell to $80 before a rally and then in the week of 9/16/2016 it fell further from $169.80 to $23.20 and then on to the adjusted (1:20 reverse) low around $4.00. We’ll hope for a better outcome this time around. Walmart was the big winner on a RECODE that said they are ready to launch Walmart +, to compete with Amazon Prime for same day grocery delivery and next day for other products. Its move today added 55 DP’s to the averages. I don’t think it’s a big deal since for the same money, with Prime you get streaming too. And the margins on groceries are razor thin.
FOOD SUPPLY CHAIN was MIXED with TSN -.67, BGS +.70, FLO -.03, CPB -.11, CAG +.54, MDLZ -.22, KHC +.22, CALM +.03, JJSF -1.43, SAFM +.54, HRL -.14, SJM +.18, PPC -.34, KR -.03, and PBJ $31.56 +.06 (.19%).
BIOPHARMA was MIXED with BIIB - -1.72, ABBV +.72, REGN +14.50, ISRG -9.30, GILD -.13, MYL -.43, TEVA -.29, VRTX +8.35, BHC -.59, INCY +.86, ICPT -.74, LABU +3.36, and IBB $140.15 +.71 (.51%).
CANNABIS: was LOWER with TLRY -.13, CGC -.40, CRON -.19, GWPH +2.93, ACB +.17, CURLF -.07, KERN -.62 and MJ $13.08 -.01 (.08%).
DEFENSE: was LOWER with LMT -8.59, GD -3.29, TXT -1.73, NOC -7.89, BWXT -1.78, TDY – 7.84, RTX -2.12 and ITA $160.32 -6.10 (3.67%).
RETAIL: was LOWER with M +.03, JWN -.58, KSS -.72, DDS -.88, WMT +9.11 (7.66%), TGT -1.40, TJX -1.84, RL -2.49, UAA -.41, LULU -6.66, TPR -.51, CPRI -.18 and XRT $43.78 -.43 (.97%).
FAANG and Big Cap: were MIXED with GOOGL -7.40, AMZN -44.69, AAPL +1.06, FB -.91, NFLX +.69, NVDA +3.06, TSLA +9.42, BABA -2.60, BIDU -4.54, CMG -10.92, CAT -2.03, BA -8.57, DIS -.53 and XLK $106.34 -.77 (.72%).
FINANCIALS were LOWER with GS – 7.91, JPM2.52, BAC -.63, MS -1.32, C -1.53, PNC -3.15, AIG -1.36, TRV -2.45, AXP -3.48, V -3.13, and XLF $22.93 -.48 (2.05%).
OIL, $40.62 -.01. Oil was lower in last night’s trading before we rallied in the morning. I mentioned in last night’s charts with comments section in the Weekly Strategies letter, prices are trying to work higher towards $45.00. We needed a close over the previous high close of $40.83 and while we were there, we sold off to close below that number. The stocks were higher with XLE $36.26 -1.19 (3.18%).
GOLD $1,809.80 +16.40. It was a continuation rally and a new recovery high OF $1807.70 Last night I said “we’ve moved $50 since the low on Friday and while the trend and momentum are positive, we may have to test 1790 to consolidate our gains.” Unfortunately, we pulled back to 1,767 instead. We rallied a bit and finished only slightly better. We bought back the 3rd and final lot of NEM @ $58.86. And, we also added a half position in NEM 7/17 60 calls @ $1.55, and additional 50% @ $1.30 on Friday. We sold half on the 100% Up Rule @ $2.94 and half of what was left today @ $3.20, we closed $3.20 + .80 today.
BITCOIN: closed $9,290 -65. After trading back to 8985 we rallied back to close – only $5. Since last week we have closed between 9200 – 92.85 every day with narrow ranges and today was a good start to move higher. A break over 10,000 still sends us higher. We added 350 shares of GBTC @ $10.02 to our position of 400 @ $8.06, bringing our average price to $8.97. GBTC closed $9.76 - .19 today.
Tomorrow is another day.
CAM
submitted by Dashover to options [link] [comments]

MW WYCO WEDNESDAY Inventory Update! First 10 Orders get a Free Mushroom Related Hand-Made Craft! Orders Ending in 6, 2 or 4 on 6/24 get a Free Unlisted Syringe! New This Week: Colorado, Hillbilly, Huaulta, John Allen, Space Coast and Mexicana Tamps. Restocked Jedi Mind Fuck, Azurescens and 20 Others

edit: 3 of my "Master Plan" subscription box members were on it with the quickness and snagged 3 of the first 10 orders! Mushie craft giveaway extended to first 13...hmm...15 orders. Last spot is order #12242 :) Master's get it too, don't worry ;)
www.millywyco.com
Hey ya'll! (TX hittin' hard these days)
This week's update comes with some really exciting fresh new varieties! I'm not sure if I've ever released 5 new ones in one week before buuuuut...you guys deserve it :) A couple were requests from my favorite group of people (you guys), while a few are ones I've been wanting to add to my personal library for a while now. Please welcome to the family...Colorado, Hillbilly, Huaulta, John Allen, and Space Coast! Quantities on these varieties are super limited, but I did restock nearly 20 other varieties, including some favorites and a few that I haven't had in stock for a while (Jedi Mind Fuck, anyone?) Oh yeah, and Mexicana Tamps are back for you stone lovers! YEET!
In other astonishing news, and something I've been wanting to do for about a year now...
GOURMETS. ARE. COMING!!
The official release date will be announced next week as promised on my July 1st Wyco Wednesday post. This has been a work in progress for a good while, and I am soooo incredibly excited for this new line of products! The first to roll out will be Lion's Mane and Turkey Tail, with many more to follow! I plan to roll out a couple of new gourmet's every couple of weeks to ensure the absolute highest quality liquid cultures. Myco Box subscriptions will be able to mix-and-match cubensis as well as gourmet's when they are ready, and pricing will match the usual for cubensis as well. More details will follow, and I'll write a little ditty on my sub here shortly so I don't clutter up these pristine subs. Show yo mods some appreciation! They're working hella hard to make sure we stay up and running here. They deserve ALLLLL the cookies.
To ensure quality specimens and packaging, and due to the onslaught of orders on Wednesday's, all orders placed on Wednesday's will be shipped on Thursday and Friday of that week. You will receive an email notification with a tracking link when your order ships. I appreciate your patience so hard!
The first 10 orders placed after this post (Order #12228-12237) will receive a FREE mushroom related artsy fartsy crafty thingy! It's a surprise, but something to show my appreciation for you early birds :)
ALSO...in addition to the first 10 promo, and going with tradition the past couple weeks (I promise I'll change it up one of these days...), any order number ending in 6, 2, or 4 on 6/24 will also get a FREE unlisted syringe not available in the shop with their order!
This week, I have restocked a few favorites, including Albino A+, Amazonian, Golden Teacher, B+, PE6, PEU, Blue Meanie, Z-Strain, Ban Sa Phang Kha, Creeper, Ecuadorian, Fiji, Jedi Mind Fuck, Mexican, Texas Orange Cap, Rusty Whyte, Puerto Rican and a few others! New additions this week include Colorado, Hillbilly, Huautla, John Allen and Space Coast!
Thank you so much to everyone who has subscribed to a subscription box! Each and every month, these boxes will get better and better :) Newsletters will go out on the first of each month, regardless of when your plan is set to renew. In these newsletters will also be the winner of the random equipment raffle for MASTER PLAN members! This could be a sterilization wand, dehydrator, magnetic stir plate, or other super duper helpful tools in the hobby.
PLEASE USE COUPON CODES if ordering on the site for discounts!! Please see below:
2PACK - $20 for two cubensis syringes
5PACK - Classic and most popular $30 dealio for 5 cubensis varieties
NEEDMORE - 5 cubensis varieties for $30 plus 1 exotic add-on for $10...total $40
NEEDMORE2 - 5 cubensis varieties for $30 plus 2 exotic add-ons for $20...total $50
NEEDMORE3 - 5 cubensis varieties for $30 plus 3 exotic add-ons for $30...total $60
...and so on. Currently, this is setup for up to 5 exotic add-ons. If you have an order that does not meet these codes, such as adding on more than 5 exotics, getting 7 cubensis varieties, etc. please send me a message and I will build you a coupon code to match your order in a timely manner.
Shipping not available to ID, GA, or CA (yes, really)
Spore syringes are for microscopy use only
Any reference to cultivation will exclude you from placing an order and we may never speak again. I want to talk to you. Don't do it!
There are no exceptions to these rules. You have been warned.
PAYMENT METHODS ACCEPTED: Major Credit/Debit cards, Zelle, Cash App, Venmo, Google Pay, Apple Pay, Bitcoin and Amazon gift cards
PayPal is NOT available to me at this time.
Also, I am the fee master! I get charged fees left and right that I don't pass on to you from shipping and third party payments. If you'd like to throw me a tip, however much it may be, I'd love you forever and it really does make a difference! These types of people have allowed me to share with some who are less fortunate. On the other hand, if times are tough for you right now, let's talk about it!
ALL PRICES INCLUDE USPS SHIPPING WITH TRACKING!! I COVER ALL STANDARD SHIPPING COSTS.
Please add an additional $5 to any order if you prefer USPS Priority Mail shipping.
1 syringe for $15
2 syringes for $20
5 syringes for $30
Golden Teacher (LIMITED TO 2 PER ORDER!)
Alacabenzi
Albino A+
Amazonian
Argentinian
B+ (Be Positive)
Ban Sa Phang Kha
Blue Meanie
Burma
Cambodian
Cambodian Gold
Colorado
Creeper
Ecuadorian
Fiji
Hillbilly
Huaulta
Jedi Mind Fuck
John Allen
Leucistic Cambodian
Lizard King
Malabar
Mazatapec
McKennaii
Mexican
Mexican Dutch King
Penis Envy #6
PES Amazon
PES Hawaiian
PF Classic
Puerto Rican
Red Boy
Rusty Whyte
Space Coast
Texas Orange Cap
Treasure Coast
Z-Strain
THE FOLLOWING EXOTICS ARE NOT PART OF THE 5/$30 MIX-n-MATCH DEALIO, but can be added to the 5/$30 pack for $10 as an add-on, or $15 each by themselves. These are NOT cubensis, and NOT recommended for beginners. USE COUPON CODE "NEEDMORE" on the site to add ONE EXOTIC on to a 5 pack. Want 2 Exotics? Use code NEEDMORE2 or NEEDMORE3 for 3, etc. Currently this is setup to add a maximum of 5 exotics....if you need more, please message me and I'll create a unique coupon code to enter for your order :)
****Penis Envy #6 (PE6)***\*
This actually IS a cubensis variety, but added to exotics list due to rarity and popularity. NOT part of the pick 5.
****Penis Envy Uncut (PEU)***\*
This actually IS a cubensis variety, but added to exotics list due to rarity and popularity. NOT part of the pick 5.
****Ps. Allenii***\*
****Ps. Azurescens***\*
****Ps. Mexicana Tampanensis***\*
****Ps. Ovoideocystidiata***\*
****Ps. Serbica***\*
****Ps. Subaeruginosa***\*
****Panaeolus Bisporus***\*
****Panaeolus Cyanescens***\*
All syringes are 12cc/mL and come capped with a sterile tip cap, and also include an 18ga BD sterile needle and alcohol pads. Syringes are made in a lab grade environment and the utmost care and attention is the highest priority to be sure they are sterile. Anything exposed to an open air environment is subject to contamination, but I take every precaution possible to minimize this risk. I cannot "guarantee" they are 100% sterile, but I can guarantee that if you have an issue, I will make it right. I really do love to help, and if something happens, I'd like to know about it so I can fix the issue instead of you getting frustrated or giving up!
To ensure equal quantity of spores in each syringe, and for adequate suspension of the spores in the solution, I use a magnetic stir plate. Very often, this does such a good job of breaking up clumps of spores that it will appear to be sparse. THIS IS NOT AN ISSUE! There are still a TON of spores in each syringe, even if you can't see them individually (though most of my syringes appear to have a very good amount of visible spores...even with my horrible eyesight!). You can compare and contrast to see the blackish/purple tint to ensure every syringe is packed with spores. If a spore clump forms during transportation, simply give it a good flick with your finger and vigorously shake to break it up or free it from clinging to the wall of the syringe before examining.
Syringes ship in individual bags clearly labeled as to specific variety and born on date, bubble wrapped and shipped through USPS tracked shipping (discreet) within 24 hours of payment. I send tracking info soon after payment and give updates along the (super quick) way.
Any messages referring to spores being used for anything other than microscopy use will be ignored. Don't do it.
THANK YOU ALL so much again for your continued support!! I appreciate it more than you know! MUSH LOVE
P.S. In no way am I trying to be an impostor. I AM NOT WILLY MYCO. I chose this u/ a while back as sort of a play on words and tribute to a legend most of us recognize, long before I became a spore vendor. I don't want anyone to think I am trying to pass off as him, though I do strive for his level of excellence and dedication to the craft! I appreciate all of the kind words, though, from people saying they learned from "my" videos. I wish I could pass on those notes to RR himself.
Cheers and MUSH LOVE!
MW
submitted by millywyco to Millywyco [link] [comments]

Bitcoin Price Prediction  $100,000 After 2021  $1,000,000 After 2025 Bitcoin Technical Analysis: BTC Awaits The Next Big Move In Stocks (July 2020) Bitcoin Price Prediction by Experts (Long Term) Bitcoin (BTC) - Where Will Bitcoin Price Go Next? $40,000 BITCOIN BY SPRING 2020 - BTC PRICE TREND

Then Bitcoin was mentioned on the popular news resource Slashdot, which provoked a 10-fold increase in its price over the next 5 days, from $0.008 to $0.08 for 1 BTC. On the same days (07.17.10) , the Mt.Gox exchange was launched, which subsequently was destined to repeatedly have a fatal influence on the cryptocurrency market. Bitcoin prices moved north on Jul 27, pushing the digital currency to its highest level in almost a year. The largest and most influential cryptocurrency jumped as much as 15% to $10,944, the Bitcoin to price above $20,000 and target $100,000. The next direction of the Bitcoin price movement has been a topic of discussion among experts and the community with the majority of the predictions being in favor of a positive price movement. The CEO of Morgan Creek, Mark Yusko earlier predicted a $400,000 or $500,000 maximum price trade for Bitcoin with the minimum price set at $100,000. Most obviously, Cash App allows users to buy and sell bitcoin quickly and easily, and with over $500 million in bitcoin sales on its platform in 2019, this is a significant part of the company's Find the latest Bitcoin USD (BTC-USD) stock quote, history, news and other vital information to help you with your stock trading and investing.

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Bitcoin Price Prediction $100,000 After 2021 $1,000,000 After 2025

Here is our latest Bitcoin (BTC) price forecast. Where will Bitcoin price go next? It's time to stop the confusion. Join Us!!! Join This Elite Group - Sign Up Here: https://www.huefinancial.com ... What is next for bitcoin price? So far it has hit one of our key BTC targets to the upside. Bitcoin still has some work to do to hit more relevant mid-term bitcoin target. Bitcoin price is being squeezed into a very tight area on the btc charts right now. A move is very likely. ... THE NEXT MAJOR BITCOIN PRICE MOVE HAPPENING SOON! ... Why The Stock Market Could ... 2018 for bitcoin wasn’t something we expected, but there is the reason why it happened what it happened. Bitcoin was in the bubble in 2017, it skyrocketed by 1,800% reaching its all time high ... According to this model that predicts bitcoin price with 95% accuracy, it indicates that bitcoin price will reach $100,000 sometime after 2021 and $1,000,000 after 2025. In this video Dr ...

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