Historical Currency Converter | OANDA

Is there a historical bitcoin exchange rate calculator?

I need to know what a specific amount back in September 2016 was worth in USD.
edit: Found one here: https://www.winkdex.com/calculator
submitted by shad0proxy to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

Is there a historical bitcoin exchange rate calculator? /r/Bitcoin

Is there a historical bitcoin exchange rate calculator? /Bitcoin submitted by BitcoinAllBot to BitcoinAll [link] [comments]

Idea: API for historical Bitcoin exchange rate by blockheight

Is there an API for historical Bitcoin exchange rate by blockheight? (i.e. I enter blockheight and I get the Bitcoin exchange rate at the time the block was included in the main chain).
This would be a killer feature service for most of the Bitcoin wallets, because they could easily show amounts for each past transaction.
There are a lot of other services that provide an exchange rate. Either continuously (e.g. https://bitpay.com/bitcoin-exchange-rates), but they don't provide the historical data. Or they have historical data (e.g. http://www.investing.com/currencies/btc-usd-historical-data) but their granularity is too high (1 day instead of 1 block).
Bonus points if you make a public script supposed to be run in cron, that generates a CSV/sqlite database anyone can use.
I'm quite surprised there is not anything like this in the Bitcoin space already.
submitted by stickac to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

How to get historical exchange rate for list of transactions for any given address? /r/Bitcoin

How to get historical exchange rate for list of transactions for any given address? /Bitcoin submitted by BitcoinAllBot to BitcoinAll [link] [comments]

Idea: API for historical Bitcoin exchange rate by blockheight /r/Bitcoin

Idea: API for historical Bitcoin exchange rate by blockheight /Bitcoin submitted by BitcoinAllBot to BitcoinAll [link] [comments]

We created a (simple) bitcoin aggregate web app to help users easily convert rates to 5 foreign currencies, get the best rate from top exchangers at any time, and also see historical trends!

Hey guys, We just launched a beta version of our web app: https://vicuco.com We collect data from top exchangers and provide users with an overall average rate. Data collection is done every 10 minutes. In addition to this, we allow users to "get the best rate" at any moment in time, in 5 foreign currencies. We also feature a ticker API that developers can use if they so wish. Please remember that this app is still in beta, so any and all feedback is greatly appreciated. We wish to hopefully target the "non-techy" market, allowing for people who have no previous knowledge about bitcoin and virtual currencies in general, to get started with the concept.
submitted by vicuco to CryptoCurrency [link] [comments]

We created a (simple) bitcoin aggregate web app to help users easily convert rates to 5 foreign currencies, get the best rate from top exchangers at any time, and also see historical trends!

Hey guys,
We just launched a beta version of our web app: https://vicuco.com
We collect data from top exchangers and provide users with an overall average rate. Data collection is done every 10 minutes.
In addition to this, we allow users to "get the best rate" at any moment in time, in 5 foreign currencies.
We also feature a ticker API that developers can use if they so wish.
Please remember that this app is still in beta, so any and all feedback is greatly appreciated. We wish to hopefully target the "non-techy" market, allowing for people who have no previous knowledge about bitcoin and virtual currencies in general, to get started with the concept.
submitted by vicuco to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

We created a (simple) bitcoin aggregate web app to help users easily convert rates to 5 foreign currencies, get the best rate from top exchangers at any time, and also see historical trends! /r/Bitcoin

We created a (simple) bitcoin aggregate web app to help users easily convert rates to 5 foreign currencies, get the best rate from top exchangers at any time, and also see historical trends! /Bitcoin submitted by BitcoinAll to BitcoinAll [link] [comments]

Ethereum Network Fees Jump Above Bitcoin Transaction Fees for Two Weeks Straight

Ethereum Network Fees Jump Above Bitcoin Transaction Fees for Two Weeks Straight submitted by swiftestcat to btc [link] [comments]

Testing the Tide | Monthly FIRE Portfolio Update - June 2020

We would rather be ruined than changed.
-W H Auden, The Age of Anxiety
This is my forty-third portfolio update. I complete this update monthly to check my progress against my goal.
Portfolio goal
My objective is to reach a portfolio of $2 180 000 by 1 July 2021. This would produce a real annual income of about $87 000 (in 2020 dollars).
This portfolio objective is based on an expected average real return of 3.99 per cent, or a nominal return of 6.49 per cent.
Portfolio summary
Vanguard Lifestrategy High Growth Fund – $726 306
Vanguard Lifestrategy Growth Fund – $42 118
Vanguard Lifestrategy Balanced Fund – $78 730
Vanguard Diversified Bonds Fund – $111 691
Vanguard Australian Shares ETF (VAS) – $201 745
Vanguard International Shares ETF (VGS) – $39 357
Betashares Australia 200 ETF (A200) – $231 269
Telstra shares (TLS) – $1 668
Insurance Australia Group shares (IAG) – $7 310
NIB Holdings shares (NHF) – $5 532
Gold ETF (GOLD.ASX) – $117 757
Secured physical gold – $18 913
Ratesetter (P2P lending) – $10 479
Bitcoin – $148 990
Raiz app (Aggressive portfolio) – $16 841
Spaceship Voyager app (Index portfolio) – $2 553
BrickX (P2P rental real estate) – $4 484
Total portfolio value: $1 765 743 (+$8 485 or 0.5%)
Asset allocation
Australian shares – 42.2% (2.8% under)
Global shares – 22.0%
Emerging markets shares – 2.3%
International small companies – 3.0%
Total international shares – 27.3% (2.7% under)
Total shares – 69.5% (5.5% under)
Total property securities – 0.3% (0.3% over)
Australian bonds – 4.7%
International bonds – 9.4%
Total bonds – 14.0% (1.0% under)
Gold – 7.7%
Bitcoin – 8.4%
Gold and alternatives – 16.2% (6.2% over)
Presented visually, below is a high-level view of the current asset allocation of the portfolio.
[Chart]
Comments
The overall portfolio increased slightly over the month. This has continued to move the portfolio beyond the lows seen in late March.
The modest portfolio growth of $8 000, or 0.5 per cent, maintains its value at around that achieved at the beginning of the year.
[Chart]
The limited growth this month largely reflects an increase in the value of my current equity holdings, in VAS and A200 and the Vanguard retail funds. This has outweighed a small decline in the value of Bitcoin and global shares. The value of the bond holdings also increased modestly, pushing them to their highest value since around early 2017.
[Chart]
There still appears to be an air of unreality around recent asset price increases and the broader economic context. Britain's Bank of England has on some indicators shown that the aftermath of the pandemic and lockdown represent the most challenging financial crisis in around 300 years. What is clear is that investor perceptions and fear around the coronavirus pandemic are a substantial ongoing force driving volatility in equity markets (pdf).
A somewhat optimistic view is provided here that the recovery could look more like the recovery from a natural disaster, rather than a traditional recession. Yet there are few certainties on offer. Negative oil prices, and effective offers by US equity investors to bail out Hertz creditors at no cost appear to be signs of a financial system under significant strains.
As this Reserve Bank article highlights, while some Australian households are well-placed to weather the storm ahead, the timing and severity of what lays ahead is an important unknown that will itself feed into changes in household wealth from here.
Investments this month have been exclusively in the Australian shares exchange-traded fund (VAS) using Selfwealth.* This has been to bring my actual asset allocation more closely in line with the target split between Australian and global shares.
A moving azimuth: falling spending continues
Monthly expenses on the credit card have continued their downward trajectory across the past month.
[Chart]
The rolling average of monthly credit card spending is now at its lowest point over the period of the journey. This is despite the end of lockdown, and a slow resumption of some more normal aspects of spending.
This has continued the brief period since April of the achievement of a notional and contingent kind of financial independence.
The below chart illustrates this temporary state, setting out the degree to which portfolio distributions cover estimated total expenses, measured month to month.
[Chart]
There are two sources of volatility underlying its movement. The first is the level of expenses, which can vary, and the second is the fact that it is based on financial year distributions, which are themselves volatile.
Importantly, the distributions over the last twelve months of this chart is only an estimate - and hence the next few weeks will affect the precision of this analysis across its last 12 observations.
Estimating 2019-20 financial year portfolio distributions
Since the beginning of the journey, this time of year usually has sense of waiting for events to unfold - in particular, finding out the level of half-year distributions to June.
These represent the bulk of distributions, usually averaging 60-65 per cent of total distributions received. They are an important and tangible signpost of progress on the financial independence journey.
This is no simple task, as distributions have varied in size considerably.
A part of this variation has been the important role of sometimes large and lumpy capital distributions - which have made up between 30 to 48 per cent of total distributions in recent years, and an average of around 15 per cent across the last two decades.
I have experimented with many different approaches, most of which have relied on averaging over multi-year periods to even out the 'peaks and troughs' of how market movements may have affected distributions. The main approaches have been:
Each of these have their particular simplifications, advantages and drawbacks.
Developing new navigation tools
Over the past month I have also developed more fully an alternate 'model' for estimating returns.
This simply derives a median value across a set of historical 'cents per unit' distribution data for June and December payouts for the Vanguard funds and exchange traded funds. These make up over 96 per cent of income producing portfolio assets.
In other words, this model essentially assumes that each Vanguard fund and ETF owned pays out the 'average' level of distributions this half-year, with the average being based on distribution records that typically go back between 5 to 10 years.
Mapping the distribution estimates
The chart below sets out the estimate produced by each approach for the June distributions that are to come.
[Chart]
Some observations on these findings can be made.
The lowest estimate is the 'adjusted GFC income' observation, which essentially assumes that the income for this period is as low as experienced by the equity and bond portfolio during the Global Financial Crisis. Just due to timing differences of the period observed, this seems to be a 'worst case' lower bound estimate, which I do not currently place significant weight on.
Similarly, at the highest end, the 'average distribution rate' approach simply assumes June distributions deliver a distribution equal to the median that the entire portfolio has delivered since 1999. With higher interest rates, and larger fixed income holdings across much of that time, this seems an objectively unlikely outcome.
Similarly, the delivery of exactly the income suggested by long-term averages measured across decades and even centuries would be a matter of chance, rather than the basis for rational expectations.
Central estimates of the line of position
This leaves the estimates towards the centre of the chart - estimates of between around $28 000 to $43 000 as representing the more likely range.
I attach less weight to the historical three-year average due to the high contribution of distributed capital gains over that period of growth, where at least across equities some capital losses are likely to be in greater presence.
My preferred central estimate is the model estimate (green) , as it is based in historical data directly from the investment vehicles rather than my own evolving portfolio. The data it is based on in some cases goes back to the Global Financial Crisis. This estimate is also quite close to the raw average of all the alternative approaches (red). It sits a little above the 'adjusted income' measure.
None of these estimates, it should be noted, contain any explicit adjustment for the earnings and dividend reductions or delays arising from COVID-19. They may, therefore represent a modest over-estimate for likely June distributions, to the extent that these effects are more negative than those experienced on average across the period of the underlying data.
These are difficult to estimate, but dividend reductions could easily be in the order of 20-30 per cent, plausibly lowering distributions to the $23 000 to $27 000 range. The recently announced forecast dividend for the Vanguard Australian Shares ETF (VAS) is, for example, the lowest in four years.
As seen from chart above, there is a wide band of estimates, which grow wider still should capital gains be unexpectedly distributed from the Vanguard retail funds. These have represented a source of considerable volatility. Given this, it may seem fruitless to seek to estimate these forthcoming distributions, compared to just waiting for them to arrive.
Yet this exercise helps by setting out reasoning and positions, before hindsight bias urgently arrives to inform me that I knew the right answer all along. It also potentially helps clearly 'reject' some models over time, if the predictions they make prove to be systematically incorrect.
Progress
Progress against the objective, and the additional measures I have reached is set out below.
Measure Portfolio All Assets
Portfolio objective – $2 180 000 (or $87 000 pa) 81.0% 109.4%
Credit card purchases – $71 000 pa 98.8% 133.5%
Total expenses – $89 000 pa 79.2% 106.9%
Summary
The current coronavirus conditions are affecting all aspects of the journey to financial independence - changing spending habits, leading to volatility in equity markets and sequencing risks, and perhaps dramatically altering the expected pattern of portfolio distributions.
Although history can provide some guidance, there is simply no definitive way to know whether any or all of these changes will be fundamental and permanent alterations, or simply data points on a post-natural disaster path to a different post-pandemic set of conditions. There is the temptation to fit past crises imperfectly into the modern picture, as this Of Dollars and Data post illustrates well.
Taking a longer 100 year view, this piece 'The Allegory of the Hawk and Serpent' is a reminder that our entire set of received truths about constructing a portfolio to survive for the long-term can be a product of a sample size of one - actual past history - and subject to recency bias.
This month has felt like one of quiet routines, muted events compared to the past few months, and waiting to understand more fully the shape of the new. Nonetheless, with each new investment, or week of lower expenditure than implied in my FI target, the nature of the journey is incrementally changing - beneath the surface.
Small milestones are being passed - such as over 40 per cent of my equity holdings being outside of the the Vanguard retail funds. Or these these retail funds - which once formed over 95 per cent of the portfolio - now making up less than half.
With a significant part of the financial independence journey being about repeated small actions producing outsized results with time, the issue of maintaining good routines while exploring beneficial changes is real.
Adding to the complexity is that embarking on the financial journey itself is likely to change who one is. This idea, of the difficulty or impossibility of knowing the preferences of a future self, is explored in a fascinating way in this Econtalk podcast episode with a philosophical thought experiment about vampires. It poses the question: perhaps we can never know ourselves at the destination? And yet, who would rationally choose ruin over any change?
The post, links and full charts can be seen here.
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Perpetual swaps historical data - where to find?

I'm conducting research on bitcoin derivatives for my MSc dissertation and am looking for historical open interest, trading volume (ideally signed), funding rate, and liquidations for perpetual swaps on the top futures exchanges, but every site I've found offering the data is either absurdly expensive or has limited resolution/history.
Does anyone know where I can find these datapoints at an hourly resolution going at least a few years back for under ~$100/month?
Thank you!
submitted by visaquestion1234 to BitcoinMarkets [link] [comments]

Two Roads Diverge | Monthly FIRE Portfolio Update - May 2020

Two roads diverged in a yellow wood, And sorry I could not travel both And be one traveler, long I stood And looked down one as far as I could To where it bent in the undergrowth
Robert Frost, The Road Not Taken
This is my forty-second portfolio update. I complete this update monthly to check my progress against my goal.
Portfolio goal
My objective is to reach a portfolio of $2 180 000 by 1 July 2021. This would produce a real annual income of about $87 000 (in 2020 dollars).
This portfolio objective is based on an expected average real return of 3.99 per cent, or a nominal return of 6.49 per cent.
Portfolio summary
Vanguard Lifestrategy High Growth Fund – $727 917
Vanguard Lifestrategy Growth Fund – $42 128
Vanguard Lifestrategy Balanced Fund – $78 569
Vanguard Diversified Bonds Fund – $110 009
Vanguard Australian Shares ETF (VAS) – $187 003
Vanguard International Shares ETF (VGS) – $39 987
Betashares Australia 200 ETF (A200) – $225 540
Telstra shares (TLS) – $1 726
Insurance Australia Group shares (IAG) – $7 741
NIB Holdings shares (NHF) – $5 652
Gold ETF (GOLD.ASX) – $117 714
Secured physical gold – $18 982
Ratesetter (P2P lending) – $11 395
Bitcoin – $159 470
Raiz app (Aggressive portfolio) – $16 357
Spaceship Voyager app (Index portfolio) – $2 492
BrickX (P2P rental real estate) – $4 477
Total portfolio value: $1 757 159 (+$62 325 or 3.7%)
Asset allocation
Australian shares – 41.4% (3.6% under)
Global shares – 22.2%
Emerging markets shares – 2.3%
International small companies – 3.0%
Total international shares – 27.4% (2.6% under)
Total shares – 68.8% (6.2% under)
Total property securities – 0.3% (0.3% over)
Australian bonds – 4.4%
International bonds – 9.7%
Total bonds – 14.1% (0.9% under)
Gold – 7.8%
Bitcoin – 9.1%
Gold and alternatives – 16.9% (6.9% over)
Presented visually, below is a high-level view of the current asset allocation of the portfolio.
[Chart]
Comments
This month featured a further recovery in the overall portfolio, continuing to effectively reduce the size of the large losses across the first quarter.
The portfolio has increased by around $62 000, leading to a portfolio growth of 3.7 per cent. This means that around half of the large recent falls have been made up, and the portfolio sits around levels last reached in October of last year.
[Chart]
Leading the portfolio growth has been increases in Australian shares - particularly those held through the Betashares A200 and Vanguard VAS exchange traded funds, with both gaining over four per cent. Most other holdings remained steady, or fell slightly.
Markets appear to be almost entirely disconnected from the daily announcements of the sharp effects of the global coronavirus pandemic and the resulting restrictions. Bond and equity markets seem to have different and competing expectations for the future, and equity markets - at best - are apparently intent on looking through the immediate recovery phase to a new period of strong expansion.
[Chart]
On some metrics, both major global and Australian equity markets can be viewed as quite expensive, especially as reduced dividends announced have largely yet to be delivered. Yet if historically low bond yields are considered, it can be argued that some heightening compared to historical equity market valuations may be sustainable.
Reflecting this moment of markets holding their breath before one of two possible futures plays out, gold and Bitcoin remain elevated, and consequently above their target weightings.
Perhaps the same contending forces are in evidence in a recent Australian Securities and Investment Commission study (pdf) which has found that average Australian retail investors have reacted to uncertainty by activating old brokerage accounts, trading more frequently, and holding securities for shorter periods. My own market activity has been limited to purchases of Vanguard Australian shares ETF (VAS) and the international share ETF (VGS), to bring the portfolio closer to its target allocations.
Will Australia continue to be lucky through global slow downs?
Despite this burst of market activity in the retail market, it is unclear how Australian markets and equities will perform against the background of a global economic slowdown. A frequently heard argument is that a small open trade exposed commodities provider such as Australia, with a more narrowly-based economy, may perform poorly in a phase of heightened risk.
This recent Bank of England paper (pdf) makes the intriguing suggestion that this argument is not borne out by the historical record. In fact, the paper finds that industrial production in Australia, China and a mere handful of other economies has tended to increase following global risk shocks.
A question remaining, however, is whether the recovery from this 'risk shock' may have different characteristics and impacts than similar past events. One key question may be the exact form of government fiscal and monetary responses adopted. Another is whether inflation or deflation is the likely pathway - an unknown which itself may rely on whether long-term trends in the velocity of money supply continue, or are broken.
Facing all uncertainties, attention should be on tail risks - and minimising the odds of extreme negative scenarios. The case for this is laid out in this moving reflection by Morgan Housel. For this reason, I am satisfied that my Ratesetter Peer-to-Peer loans have been gradually maturing, reducing some 'tail risk' credit exposures in what could be a testing phase for borrowers through new non-bank lending channels in Australia. With accrued interest of over $13 000, at rates of around 9 per cent on average, over the five years of the investment, the loans have performed relatively well.
A temporary sheltering port - spending continues to decline
This month spending has continued to fall even as lockdown and other restrictions have slowly begun to ease. These extraordinary events have pushed even the smoothed average of three year expenditure down.
[Chart]
On a monthly basis credit card spending and total expenses have hit the lowest levels in more than six years. Apparently, average savings rates are up across many economies, though obviously individual experiences and starting points can differ dramatically.
Total estimated monthly expenditure has also fallen below current estimates of distributions for the first time since a period of exceptionally high distributions across financial year 2017-18.
The result of this is that I am briefly and surprisingly, for this month, notionally financially independent based on assumed distributions from the FIRE portfolio alone - at least until more normal patterns of expenditure are resumed.
Following the lines of drift - a longer view on progress made
Yet taking a longer view - and accounting for the final portfolio goal set - gives a different perspective. This is of a journey reaching toward, but not at, an end.
The chart below traces in purely nominal dollar terms the progress of the total portfolio value as a percentage of the current portfolio goal of $2.18 million over the last 13 years.
It also shows three labels, with the percentage progress at the inception of detailed portfolio data in 2007, at the start of this written record in January 2017, and as at January 1 of this year.
[Chart]
Two trend lines are shown - one a polynomial and the other exponential function - and they are extended to include a projection of future progress out to around 18 months.
The line of fit is close for the early part of the journey, but larger divergences from both trend lines are evident in the past two years as the impact of variable investment returns on a larger portfolio takes hold.
There are some modest inaccuracies introduced by the nominal methodology adopted - such as somewhat discounting early progress. A 2007 dollar had greater 'real' value and significance than is assigned to it by this representation. The chart does demonstrate, however, the approximate shape and length of the early journey - with it taking around 5 years to reach 20 per cent of the target, and 10 years to reach around half way.
Progress
Progress against the objective, and the additional measures I have reached is set out below.
Measure Portfolio All Assets
Portfolio objective – $2 180 000 (or $87 000 pa) 80.6% 108.4%
Credit card purchases – $71 000 pa 98.3% 132.3%
Total expenses – $89 000 pa 78.8% 106.0%
Summary
With aspects of daily life slowly and incrementally adjusting to a 'new normal', the longer-term question for the portfolio remains around how markets and government actions interact in a recovery phase.
The progress of the portfolio over the past 13 years has seemed, when viewed from afar as in chart above, predictable, and almost inevitable. Through the years it has felt anything but so smoothly linear. Rather, tides and waves have pushed and pulled, in turn stalling progress, or pushing it further ahead than hopes have dared.
It is possible that what lays ahead is a simple 'return leg', or more of the same. That through simple extrapolation around 80 per cent of the challenges already lay behind. Yet that is not the set of mind that I approach the remainder of the journey with. Rather, the shortness of the distance to travel has lent an extra focus on those larger, lower probability, events that could delay the journey or push it off-course. Those 'third' risks types of tail risks which Morgan Housel points out.
In one sense the portfolio allocation aims to deal - in a probabilistic way - with the multiple futures that could occur.
Viewed in this way, a gold allocation (and also Bitcoin) represents a long option on an extreme state of the economic world arising - as it did in the early 1980s. The 75 per cent target allocation to equities can be viewed as a high level of assurance around a 'base case' that human ingenuity and innovation will continue to create value over the long term.
The bond portfolio, similarly, can be seen as assigning a 15 per cent probability that both of these hypotheses are incorrect, and that further market falls and possible deflation are ahead. That perhaps even an experience akin to the lengthy, socially dislocating, post-bubble phase in Japan presided over by its central bank lays in store.
In other interesting media consumed this month, 'Fire and Chill', the brand new podcast collaboration between Pat the Shuffler and Strong Money Australia got off to an enjoyable start, tackling 'Why Bother with FIRE' and other topics.
Additionally, investment company Incrementum has just published the latest In Gold We Trust report, which gives an arrestingly different perspective on potential market and policy directions from traditional financial sources.
The detailed report questions the role and effectiveness of traditionally 'risk-free' assets like government bonds in the types of futures that could emerge. On first reading, the scenarios it contains appear atypical and beyond the reasonable contemplation of many investors - until it is recalled that up to a few years ago no mainstream economics textbook would have entertained the potential for persistent negative interest rates.
As the paths to different futures diverge, drawing on the wisdom of others to help look as far as possible into the bends in the undergrowth ahead becomes the safest choice.
The post, links and full charts can be seen here.
submitted by thefiexpl to fiaustralia [link] [comments]

DD- GLD, Stagflation, and You

Hey nerds, Duncan here. You might remember me from last week's DD, in which I argued that a company whose entire business model consists of exploiting the poor is worthy of your totally un-earned NEET bux. In today's not financial advice we are going to talk about the currency without a state, the oldest medium of trade, Scrooge McDuck's drug of choice...I'm talking about gold.
Now, there is a reason that commercial advertisements for gold target demographics that we will generously call "unsophisticated". Gold is perfect for short term thinkers/investors because doesn't actually grow in the long term the way equities or bonds do. But to understand the powerful short term play I'm talking about, we need to understand the role gold actually plays in the international monetary system.
After WW2, the Allied powers got together and realized that they needed a way to avoid the hyperinflation of 1930's Germany which had led to the war. In order to ensure currency stability the entire world agreed to peg their currencies to USD. And USD would be backed by gold. If one of the currencies was too much in demand, threatening the carefully managed exchange rates, than the IMF would step in and pump or dump the currency until it returned to the right exchange rate.
That system worked great until around 1971, when Nixon lost tons of the government's tendies napalming rice paddies. The US government paid for the war with debt, and by 1971, Nixon was afraid of actually getting margin called. So he, with no notice to anyone, announced that the US dollar was no longer backed by gold. Suddenly it was a free for all. The US economy was hit with both high unemployment and high inflation, other currencies floated all over the place. Basically, it was the chaos we have today.
So Duncan, you might ask, does anyone buy gold today? Well, almost every central bank in the world continues to hold gold, and lots of it. The reason they do so is the same reason almost all historic currencies were based on gold: that because gold can't easily be printed, it can't be easily be manipulated, and it can't easily be degraded or destroyed. In fact, it's perks strongly parallel those of Bitcoin. In the event of a crisis, a country can liquidate its gold reserves for more currency. This is especially helpful when a reserve currency, or the native currency is in trouble. For example, we see Venezuela, whose own currency is totally worthless, USD reserves are useless due to sactions, and therefore it has turned to its gold reserves to pay for imports of food and medicine.
Gold's reputation as a systemic-risk hedge is so great, that in times of market instability or crisis, it actually assumes a negative beta. That is, it moves opposite equities. However because it is an almost fixed quantity asset, it also changes value against other currencies. So, when we have our friend Jerome running his printer like crazy, increasing the money supply at an unprecedented rate, he should be increasing the price of gold, or rather, making the USD/Gold exchange rate higher. In fact, we see that around late 2018 the trump tax cut began to pump more liquidity into an already hot economy, starting a USD/Gold price increase. Likewise, as the world economies look more and more risky, and the world's reserve currency's M2 expands faster than Boogie2988 after a breakup; we should see central banks continue to purchase gold as a hedge against continued economic instability.
The Fed has made it clear, that it will do everything possible to avoid deflation. However, after 10 years of historically low interest rates and at times QE, consumers simply have not seen wages or prices increase significantly. So where has that steadily increasing money supply gone? Well, the answer appears to be that some assets are experiencing inflation: Financial instruments, urban housing, medical care, and college tuition--anything that can be funded through cheap debt--have taken the brunt of inflation. Meanwhile the average American consumer can't even find 4 hundred dollar bills to rub together in an emergency. So we can be almost certain that the Fed will keep printing, in the misguided belief that its freshly minted money will eventually trickle down to the American consumer, but in the process the Fed will raise the price of stocks, bonds, houses, colleges, medicine, and most importantly gold.
As we have discussed, gold is good for two things: hedging inflation, and reducing systematic risk. And right now, both of those traits are looking very, very valuable.
Edit: Since every post I get accused of pump and dump, I will disclose my current related positions: UGLD, and about 1-1.5 oz of physical gold. I include an option recommendation for the algos, but honestly, if you don't know how to gain exposure to gold, this post probably won't help you.
8/1 180c GLD
submitted by Sten_Duncan2 to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

News



Dogecoin surges to dizzying heights amid TikTok hype
Oliver Knight
July 9, 2020, 6:27 am
Dogecoin, a longstanding staple of the cryptocurrency ecosystem, has been struck by a remarkably unexpected rally over the past 48-hours, with it now trading 82% higher against Bitcoin than it was two days ago.
The meme-friendly digital asset, which was created as a joke in 2013, has emerged as a target for millions of TikTok users that claim it will rally all the way to $1.
The #DOGE hashtag now has millions of posts on both TikTok and Twitter, with cryptocurrency exchanges responding by listing both futures and perpetual swap contracts of the cryptocurrency.
This morning Binance revealed that as of tomorrow customers can trade Doge/USDT with up to 50x leverage.
Bitfinex, meanwhile, announced that it will list MDOGE with a conversion rate of one million as it attempts to capitalise on the recent wave of hype.

While a coin like Doge pumping unsustainably may seem like fun, investors should be wary about using leveraged products as it massively increases the risk of liquidation.
To be clear, this is not financial advice but retail investors should be cautious about buying into an asset that has already made substantial gains on the back of a viral social media post, especially when Doge has been the recipient of a number of pump and dumps over the past two years.
Looking at Dogecoin’s chart, the current level of 50 sats has been a historical point of support and resistance dating all the way back to 2015, which means price may be halted here unless another wave of volume comes in.
For more news, guides and cryptocurrency analysis, click here.
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The bitcoin price is ready for a rally, but it has to fall to $7,000 first. What else are analysts predicting?

The bitcoin price is ready for a rally, but it has to fall to $7,000 first. What else are analysts predicting?

https://preview.redd.it/3dh6e2ljbeb51.png?width=3366&format=png&auto=webp&s=8f3afd875fabb798d61e8f7c5f8f5a13cf36317d

Opinion: the BTC price will drop down to $7,000 before a new rally

Bloсkroots analyst and founder Josh Rager thinks that the price of bitcoin is ready to break through its historical maximum of $20,000, but it has to drop down first in order to do that.
He studied the chart starting from 2010 and noticed that there had been a powerful fall before each explosive growth. For example, the price formed a bear triangle in 2018, then fell from $6,300 to $3,100 and then rose to $13,800.
At the moment, the chart shows a similar formation. According to the analyst, the rate will plummet to $7,000 and then it will rise to the historical maximum towards the end of the year

The nearest target for bitcoin is $8,700

Analyst filbfilb writes. According to him, the price lost its key support at the level of $9,250 and is now on its way to the round point of $9,000.
According to the trader, the nearest target will be $8,700 where the week support and the lower boundary of the side channel are. The analyst points out that the price has been consolidating since the beginning of May within the range of $8,600-10,000.
This week the price of the first cryptocurrency has lost more than $200 alongside hacked Twitter accounts of cryptocurrency exchanges and some celebrities. The hackers asked the subscribers to transfer bitcoins to the specified address in order to get twice as big the amount in return.

The bitcoin price is ready to rise up above $11,000

CredibleCrypto analyst thinks that the BTC rate has completed the accumulation stage and is going to break through the point of $11,000.
He compared the current situation to the classic Wyckoff accumulation and came to the conclusion that it was completed. The trader predicts that the nearest targets should be the levels of $9,600, $10,400 and $11,000.
He points out that the bitcoin price is near the strong resistance of $10,000 and ready to liquidate the positions of sellers with one strong upward surge.
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CoinEx Token Rating Report by TokenInsight

CoinEx Token Rating Report by TokenInsight
Written by TokenInsight
Published by tokenin.cn

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Advantages

  1. The team’s overall technical background is good, and the CTO and CEO of the project have rich experience in related industries;
  2. The current business scope of CoinEx has been expanded, and the development of the public chain has a decisive role in promoting the development of the exchange business;
  3. The project operation information is transparent, and the development process is consistent with the road map;
  4. The unlocking schedule is clear, and the token held by the team will be unlocked continuously in the next five years;
  5. The project uses POS consensus mechanism. At present, it has been launched on the main network, and the block time is stable, between 2–3 seconds.

Challenges

  1. It is not clear enough yet whether the trichain operation planning can achieve the project’s development goals;
  2. There is limited information on implementation details about cross-chain and other related technologies, and the development status needs to be assessed based on the later project development disclosure information;
  3. The team currently hold a large share of the token, hence the distribution of tokens is relatively concentrated;
  4. There are few application scenarios for project tokens, and more ecosystem scenarios need to be developed;
  5. As a deflationary token, CET needs to be balanced by dealing with the contradiction between public chain users and token holders.

Outlook

The development of CoinEx Chain contributes to the future development of CoinEx’s centralized and decentralized exchanges; the concept of trichain operation simplifies the functions of each chain, improving their performance. At present, there are few exchanges working on the public chain, and no fierce competition has occurred.

Conclusion

Considering the status and development prospects of the project, TokenInsight gives CoinEx a rating of BB with a stable outlook.

1. Multidimensional evaluation


2. Project analysis

CoinEx (CoinEx Technology Limited) was established in December 2017 and is headquartered in Hong Kong, China. It is a sub-brand of the ViaBTC mining pool. At present, CoinEx’s business scope includes CoinEx exchange, CoinEx public chain, and CoinEx decentralized exchange. The current development focus of the CoinEx platform are public chain and exchange. The main purpose of the public chain is to build a decentralized exchange (DEX) infrastructure and an ecosystem around DEX.

CoinEx business structure,Source: CoinEx; TokenInsight

2.1 Introduction

“ CoinEx Chain uses the parallel operation of three chains which are DEX, Smart, and Privacy, as well as cross-chain technologies to create a rich decentralized exchange ecosystem and blockchain financial infrastructure.
The core of CoinEx’s early business was the exchange, consisted of two major categories which were spot and derivatives trading. Currently, there are 123 trading currencies online, covering 302 trading pairs. On June 28, 2019, CoinEx released the CoinEx Chain public chain white paper, aiming to build a decentralized trading system (CoinEx DEX) with community-based operations and transparent transaction rules, and providing user-controlled asset trading scenario by the highest technical standards in the industry; CoinEx Chain has become another development focus of CoinEx. CoinEx Token (CET), which was originally a native token of the CoinEx exchange, will also be developed mainly as a built-in token of the public chain.
CoinEx Chain is a public chain based on the Tendermint consensus protocol and Cosmos SDK, and it uses POS mechanism. CoinEx Chain plans to support 42 nodes when the project starts, and any entity in the ecosystem can participate in the validator’s campaign by staking CET. CoinEx Chain will use the new block reward and the transaction fee contained in the block as the reward for running the node.
CoinEx Chain has developed three public chains with different positioning and different functions in order to meet the needs of blockchain transactions for transaction performance, smart contracts, and privacy protection at the same time. They operate in parallel and collaborate with each other through cross-chain technology. At present, the block time of the public chain is between 2–3 seconds. According to the observation of TokenInsight, the block time is stable, but the number of transactions through the CoinEx public chain is still low at present, the number of transactions in 24 hours is about 30,000; The TPS on public chain disclosed by CoinEx can reach up to 1500 per second.
CoinEx Chain uses a trichain parallel model to build a more vibrant ecosystem around DEX. The three chains are DEX public chain, Smart public chain, and Privacy public chain, respectively responsible for decentralized transactions, smart contracts, and on-chain privacy protection.
CETs that need to participate in complex financial contracts can be transferred to the Smart public chain through the DEX public chain, then moved back to the DEX public chain after that. CET tokens that need to participate in token confusion can also be carried out through the privacy transaction of the Privacy public chain, and can eventually be returned to the DEX public chain. The three public chains are responsible for their respective duties, and they are interconnected through the cross-chain technology through the relay mechanism. In addition to ensuring their respective transaction processing speed and functional attributes, they can also jointly provide richer and safer functions, and synergistically constitute the CoinEx decentralized public chain ecosystem.
In addition, CoinEx Chain also supports any participant to issue new tokens on the chain and create new trading pairs for the issued tokens. CoinEx Chain guarantees the circulation of new tokens by establishing a trading pair between the new token and CET.

2.2 Component architecture

“ Tendermint Core and Cosmos SDK have improved the performance and operation capability of the blockchain. The SDK packaging reduces the consideration of non-related logic, hence reducing the development complexity.
CoinEx Chain is based on Tendermint Core and Cosmos SDK, both of which have brought a big boost to the development of CoinEx public chain performance. Cosmos-SDK will implement the application logic of the blockchain. Together with the Tendermint consensus engine, it implements the three-layer architecture of the CoinEx public chain: the application layer, the consensus layer, and the network layer.
Tendermint
Tendermint is based on the state machine replication technology and is suitable for blockchain ledger storage. It is a list of transactions making consensus with Byzantine fault tolerance, the transactions are executed in the same order, and eventually the same state is obtained. Tendermint can be used to build various distributed applications.
Cosmos SDK
Cosmos-SDK is a blockchain framework that supports the construction of multiple assets with a consensus mechanism of POS (Proof of Stake) or POA (Proof of Authority). The goal of the Cosmos SDK is to allow developers to easily build custom blockchains from 0, while enabling the interaction with other blockchains.
Cosmos-SDK is a blockchain framework that supports the construction of multiple assets with a consensus mechanism of POS (Proof of Stake) or POA (Proof of Authority). The goal of the Cosmos SDK is to allow developers to easily build custom blockchains from 0, while enabling the interaction with other blockchains. The blockchain development framework Cosmos SDK implements general functions such as account management, community governance, and staking in a modular form. Therefore, using the Cosmos SDK to build a public chain can simplify development procedures and facilitate operation. Tendermint is a fixed protocol in a partially synchronized environment, which can achieve throughput within a delay range of the network and each process itself. The CoinEx public chain is developed based on both, improving the performance and operability of the blockchain. The SDK packaging further reduces considerations of non-related logic and reduces the complexity of developers creating. The two components of Tendermint and Cosmos SDK are connected and interacted through the Application Blockchain Interface.
Cosmos SDK and Tendermint interworking structure,Source:CoinEx; TokenInsight

2.3 Project public chain planning

The development plan of the CoinEx public chain is to create a series of public chains with specific application directions, including:
  1. DEX public chain: solve the problems of lack of security and opacity that are widely criticized by centralized exchanges at present; aim to build a transparent, safe, and permission-free financial platform; restore the experience of central exchanges to the greatest extent;
  2. Smart public chain: a public chain that specifically supports smart contracts and provides a platform for building complex financial applications;
  3. Privacy public chain: mainly provides transaction amount, account balance, and information protection and the hiding of both parties to the transaction.
In order to achieve the performance of each specific application public chain, each public chain in the CoinEx public chain focuses on the development of a certain function. For example, in order to improve the transaction processing speed of the DEX public chain, the DEX public chain only supports the necessary functions and does not support smart contracts. To achieve the smart contract function support, cross-chain connection between the DEX public chain and the Smart public chain is required.

2.4 Operation analysis

“ The CoinEx platform publishes monthly ecosystem reports with high transparency; but the monthly reports are limited to contents about transactions and development, and lack progress in ecosystem and community construction, making them relatively simple.
2.4.1 Disclosure of ecosystem information
Operational risks have a direct impact on platform users. Whether platform operations are smooth and whether there is transparency are issues that platform users care about.
The CoinEx platform was established in 2017 and has around 3 years of development. It is also one of the platforms that has been developing for a long time in the exchange industry. It has obtained a digital currency trading license issued by the Estonian Financial Intelligence Unit (FIU), and the platform’s compliance is guaranteed to some degree.
The actual operation of the CoinEx platform will be displayed in the form of ecosystem monthly reports. The monthly report contains various types of content such as online currencies, new activities, plans for the next month, and ecosystem dynamics. It involves multiple business dimensions including the CoinEx exchange, CoinEx Public Chain, and CET token.

https://preview.redd.it/4mt0999ere551.png?width=631&format=png&auto=webp&s=cba27a7c90275f4c033bdd2445a72e6f294265e8
Snippet of a CoinEx ecosystem monthly report,Source: CoinEx; TokenInsight
2.4.2 Roadmap
CoinEx Chain released its development roadmap for the four quarters of 2020 in January 2020. The roadmap shows that CoinEx Chain will undergo major updates on smart contracts and DEX hard fork upgrades. The project roadmap is basically planned on a monthly basis, with a clear plan and a clear direction of development.
CoinEx Public Chain 2020 Development Roadmap,Source: CoinEx; TokenInsight
In addition to the development route planned in the roadmap, CoinEx public chain also discloses its goals for next month in its monthly ecological report. The project’s main net was launched online in November 2019. According to TokenInsight’s review of the development of CoinEx public chain from January to April and the disclosure of the project’s ecosystem monthly report, the project’s plan about development of the smart contract Demo in February failed to be completed as planned; the project completed launching of the new version of the blockchain browser and the Asian Atlantis upgrade; the smart contract virtual machine development was planned to be completed in April, but the progress related to supporting cross-chain agreements was not disclosed yet.
Overall, the project’s development route planning is clear, and the project’s development schedule is consistent with the plan, but there are still some discrepancies. Operation and development information is disclosed every month, and information transparency is high.

3. Industry & Competitors

The earliest origin of the exchange layout in the public chain field began in early 2018 when Binance released an announcement to start the development of the Binance Public Chain officially. In June of the same year, Huobi announced at its brand upgrade conference that it will combine the technical capabilities of the Huobi technical team and the community developers to develop the Huobi public chain called “Huobi Chain”. In December of the same year, OK Group announced the launch of its self-developed public chain OKchain, dedicating to provide underlying technical support and services for startups stationed in B-Labs.
The successful launch of the public chain brings huge strategic significance to the exchange, which can not only improve the performance of the existing business of the exchange but also achieve further expansion of its influence. As one of the most important blockchain infrastructures, the public chain can benefit the exchanges behind it.
As a platform for developing public chain technology exchanges, CoinEx’s main competitors in the field of public chain development include Binance, Huobi, and OKEx. Although they are all exchange platforms for deploying public chains, the above four are different in terms of specific functions, economic models, and critical points of the public chain.

3.1 Development progress comparison

In 2019, Binance became the first exchange to launch a public chain among all digital asset exchanges, and its main product is Binance exchange (DEX). In April 2020, Binance announced the launch of a second smart contract chain, using Ethereum’s virtual machine, so that developers can build decentralized applications without affecting the performance and functionality of their original chain.
OKEx launched OKChain’s testnet in February 2020 and completed open source two months later. OKChain is designed as the basis of large-scale blockchain-driven business applications, with the characteristics of source code decentralization, point-to-point, irreversibility, and efficient autonomy.
Huobi released Huobi Chain for the first time in July 2019, the code is open source, and the testnet was released in February 2020. As a “regulator-friendly financial blockchain”, Huobi Chain focuses on providing compliance services for companies and financial institutions.
The CoinEx public chain officially completed the main online launch in November 2019 and completed the new block browser’s launch in March 2020. On April 3, 2020, CoinEx DEX uploaded the underlying code to Github to achieve open source. The CoinEx public chain is more inclined to build a full DEX ecosystem to achieve a one-stop solution for issuing, listing, storing, and trading. The long-term goal is to create a blockchain financial infrastructure.

3.2 Comparison of economic models

At present, the exchange is more inclined to use its existing platform currency as the native token of the public chain in the construction of public chain ecology. CoinEx’s CET, Binance’s BNB, and Huobi’s HT all fall into this category. OKEx is the only exchange that issues new tokens for its OKChain, which means OKT is the only ‘inflation token’ in the exchange’s public chain, while CET, HT, and BNB are all deflationary.

3.3 Decentralization of public chain

The initial number of CoinEx public chain verification nodes is 42, which is currently the most decentralized among all exchange public chains, and able to take both efficiency and decentralization into account; OKChain also currently has a relatively high degree of decentralization in the exchange public chain (21 verification nodes), its nodes have a high degree of autonomy; by contrast, Binance still firmly controls the operation of nodes and transactions; In terms of encourages cooperation between regulators and the private financial aspects, Huobi provides a lesser degree of decentralization. Huobi Chain uses a variant of the DPoS consensus algorithm to provide functions such as “supervision nodes”, allowing regulators to become validators.
Comparison of some dimensions of CoinEx, Huobi, Binance and OKEx public chain,Source: TokenInsight

4. Token Economy

CoinEx Token (CET) is a native token of the CoinEx ecosystem. It was issued in January 2018. Token holders can enjoy some user value-added services within the ecosystem. Currently, it is mainly used as a native token on the CoinEx Chain. As of 11 am on April 23, 2020, the current circulation of CET tokens in the market is 3,215,354,906.31, with a total of 5,842,177,609.53. CET tokens will not be further issued or inflated. Currently, daily repurchase and quarterly destruction are carried out. The repurchase destruction dynamics can now be tracked real-time on the CET repurchase system on the platform.

4.1 Token Distribution

The CET token used to be based on the ERC-20 token developed by Ethereum. Since the CoinEx Chain mainnet was launched in November 2019, some ERC-20 CET tokens have been mapped to the mainnet CET, and the rest of the CET will be mapped before November 10, 2020. CET holders need to deposit ERC-20 CET to the COinEX exchange, and the exchange will conduct the main network mapping.
At present, CET is mainly circulated in the form of mainnet tokens, and only a small portion of ERC-20 CET has not been mapped. The distribution of token holdings currently circulating on the mainnet can be seen in the figure below. At present, the number of tokens held by the top ten holders accounts for about 60.44% of all mainnet CET tokens.
Distribution of CET token holding addresses,Source: Etherscan; TokenInsight
The following figure shows the initial distribution of tokens after the mainnet mapping preset by CoinEx. From the initial distribution map of CET, it shows that, after mapping, a large portion of CET remains concentrated in the hands of the team (31%), and the actual number of CET circulating in the market only accounts for 49% of the total.
The initial distribution of CET token,Source: CoinEx; TokenInsight
After the main net mapping, the 31% of the total CET (1.8 billion) held by the team will be gradually unlocked in the five years from 2020 to 2024, and 360 million CET will be unlocked each year. By 2024, the CET held by the team will be completely unlocked. From the current CET dynamics, the CET share held by some teams has been used for destruction purposes to achieve the purpose of CET austerity. If the frozen 1.8 billion CET held by the team are used for similar purposes, the development of CET and its platform can benefit from it.
Team’s CET unlocking plan,Source: CoinEx; TokenInsight

4.2 Token economic model

4.2.1 Deflation mechanism
Since the CET token went online in January 2018, CoinEx has increased the circulation of CET through airdrops, transaction fee refunds, operation promotion, and team unlocking. As one of the existing platform coins with long development time, the deflation mechanism of CET token has undergone a series of changes with the development of the industry. In 2018, when the concept of coin-based mining prevailed, CET used transaction mining, stake mining, and pending order mining, which were cancelled in October, December and, April respectively of the following year.
The repurchase and destruction model currently used by CET was updated by CoinEx on April 11, 2020. The original CET quarterly repurchase and destruction policy of the platform will be adjusted to daily repurchase and quarterly destruction. After the implementation of the daily repurchase policy, CoinEx will take out 50% of the daily fee income for CET repurchase in the secondary market and implement quarterly destruction until the total remaining circulation is 3 billion (currently about 5.8 billion).
At the same time that CoinEx updated the repurchase and destruction plan on April 11, the platform also launched a page dedicated to displaying CET repurchase information, so that users can clearly understand the progress of CET repurchase and destruction.
As of April 23, 2020, the platform has destroyed 4,157,822,390.46 CET tokens, accounting for 41.6% of the initial total issuance. At the end of January 2019, it had destroyed 4 billion CETs (single destruction volume peak) at the end of this quarter. The number of CETs to be destroyed is 3,422,983.56.
CET historical destruction data,Source: CoinEx; TokenInsight
4.2.2 Application scenarios
The current usage scenarios of CET are discounted platform transaction fees, VIP services, special activities rights and interests, CoinEx Chain internal circulation fuel, and use of external scenarios.
Deduction and discount of platform transaction fees
CoinEx platform users can use CET to deduct transaction fees when conducting transactions within the platform. At the same time, using CET to pay transaction fees can enjoy the exclusive preferential rates provided by the platform.
CET fee discount amount,Source:CoinEx; TokenInsight
VIP service
Holding a certain number of CETs can make a user become a platform VIP user. Users can also use CET to purchase platform VIPs to obtain corresponding privileges such as discounted rates, accelerated withdrawals, and exclusive customers.
Special activity rights
CET holders can enjoy special rights and interests in platform marketing activities, such as participating in the airdrop of tokens on the platform or accelerating opportunities for high-quality projects.
CoinEx Chain built-in token
CET will serve as a native token of CoinEx Chain, circulate and serve as fuel in CoinEx Chain, and users can also use CET to invest or trade other digital assets. In addition, CET can also serve as transaction fees and function fees (issuing Token, creating new trading pairs, account activation), etc. in the platform, and users can also participate in the campaign of validators by staking CET tokens.
CET is currently used as a circulation token as well for CoinEx DEX to issue tokens, create orders, Bancor, address activation, set address aliases, and other application scenarios.
In general, the types of application scenarios of CET are not plenty enough. In order to better develop the internal ecosystem of the platform, it is necessary to design and develop more CET usage scenarios and incentive mechanisms to increase the retention rate of users while adding new users.
4.2.3 Token incentive
As the native token of the CoinEx public chain, CET will be used as a block incentive to increase community participation after the mainnet of the public chain launched. The 315 million CET held by the foundation in the total CET issuance will be used to incentivize initial verification nodes and Staking participants.
CET annual incentive information,Source:CoinEx; TokenInsight

5. Team & Partners

5.1 Core team members

Among the core team members of CoinEx, the technical members account for a relatively large proportion. The technical team’s overall ability is good and the team members have different technical experience backgrounds including cryptography, underlying protocols, marketing, and operations. The team has rich blockchain industry experience, especially the chief developer, who has about 13 years of development industry experience.

https://preview.redd.it/kd0z9q0ese551.png?width=785&format=png&auto=webp&s=7beff33e522165202f6a0b75dba70f32630d8656
https://preview.redd.it/s2klsatese551.png?width=1024&format=png&auto=webp&s=57f03219007d853d754883e2e07cd5eb2c8ed17d
https://preview.redd.it/kuyspmkfse551.png?width=978&format=png&auto=webp&s=fd9c808107d245047f7c74ef34fcf6a02965152c

5.2 Investment institutions and partners

CoinEx’s investment is led by Bitmain and its main partners include Matrixport, Bitcoin.com, CoinBull, Consensus Lab, BTC.com, BTC.top, Hoo Exchange, Wa Yi, ChainFor.com, etc.
Investment institutions and major partners have rich experience in the industry, which can promote the development of projects to a certain extent. However, the current industry involved by the partners is not wide enough, and it will have a limited role in promoting the future of CoinEx’s enriching business lines and increasing ecosystem functions.
https://preview.redd.it/zjgzvv6ise551.png?width=533&format=png&auto=webp&s=a3f7fe3abb2c2d522e289213ae6fbc4e899825e0

6. Community Analysis

According to TokenInsight’s research of the CoinEx platform community, as of April 23, 2020, its official Twitter has 19,800 followers and 932 tweets; the official Telegram has 45 official groups, 3 in Chinese and English, and the other is Korean, Arabic, Vietnamese, Indian and other small language groups, with a total number of 56088 people; the current number of followers on Facebook accounts is 3,107. The overall community followers still have a lot of room for improvement, and community activeness needs to be improved.
Number of followers on the CoinEx social platform,Source:TokenInsight
At present, the project’s search popularity and official website visits are both top-notch, and monthly visits have slowly returned to their previous visit levels after experiencing a significant decline in December 2019.
CoinEx visit popularity,Source: TokenInsight, Similarweb, Google
At present, the visitors of the CoinEx website are distributed in multiple countries, and there are no visits concentration from a single country or region. Therefore, CoinEx’s comprehensive global influence is widely distributed and has a reasonable degree of internationalization.

CoinEx official website’s top 5 countries by number of visitors,Source: CoinEx, TokenInsight
Original article
Click here to register on CoinEx!
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LOEx Market Research Report on July 9: BTC is hovering at the 50-day moving average, which indicates that there will be a few days of fluctuations in the interval

LOEx Market Research Report on July 9: BTC is hovering at the 50-day moving average, which indicates that there will be a few days of fluctuations in the interval
[Today's Hot Tips]
1. [Onshore RMB breaks the 7.0 mark and the USDT premium rate narrows to -0.48%]
The market shows that the onshore RMB regained the 7.0 mark against the US dollar for the first time since mid-March. Onshore RMB is now reported at 6.9938, and USDT quotes 6.960RMB on the off-site Boboo.com. The premium rate narrows to -0.48%.
2. [Report: The number of USDT active addresses based on Ethereum reached a record high in June]
According to U.Today on July 9, the latest report of blockchain research company CoinMetrics shows that the growth of Ethereum-based Tether (USDT) has stopped this month. The USDT-ERC20 token reached a historical peak of 140,000 active addresses in June. Currently, the number of active addresses has dropped to below 120,000.
3. [The US CFTC promises to develop an "overall framework" for digital assets by 2024]
According to the news of Cointelegraph on July 9, the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) will make comprehensive cryptocurrency supervision a priority in its final strategy for the next four years released on July 8. Its strategic goal promises: "A overall framework will be developed to promote responsible digital asset innovation."
[Today's market analysis]
Bitcoin (BTC)After pulling up yesterday evening, BTC has continued to consolidate above 9400 USDT since early this morning. XRP led the rise in mainstream currencies. BTC is currently reported at 9377.1 USDT on LOEx Global, a drop of 0.37% in 24h.
According to the CryptoCompare report, due to Bitcoin's range fluctuations, the volume of cryptocurrency derivatives transactions fell by 35.7% in June. However, the Bitcoin option trading volume of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange rose to its highest level in history in June.
After staying at the 50-day simple moving average ($9,376) for the past two days, Bitcoin (BTC) has risen above the resistance level, which is a positive sign because it indicates that demand is at a higher level.
If the bulls are able to maintain the price above the 50-day moving average, they may rebound to $9,795.63 and then to $10,000. Currently, both moving averages are flat and the relative intensity index is just above 50, which indicates that there will be several days of fluctuations in this interval.
If the bulls can push BTC/USDT to break the $10,000 to $10,500 resistance zone, this view will fail. But so far, this seems to be a difficult task.
Operation suggestions:
Support level: the first support level is 9200 points, the second support level is 9000 integers;
Resistance level: the first resistance level is 9500 points, the second resistance level is 9700 points.
LOEx is registered in Seychelles. It is a global one-stop digital asset service platform with business distribution nodes in 20 regions around the world. It has been exempted from Seychelles and Singapore Monetary Authority (MAS) digital currency trading services. Provide services and secure encrypted digital currency trading environment for 2 million community members in 24 hours.
https://preview.redd.it/as8qe7jztr951.png?width=554&format=png&auto=webp&s=66d96b1609cfda78e53ab1e75a7750f50dea1808
submitted by LOEXCHANGE to u/LOEXCHANGE [link] [comments]

The COVID19 / Bond Impact on Stocks and Crypto

The COVID19 / Bond Impact on Stocks and Crypto
Alex Wason and John Barry | Mon Jul 06 2020

The Federal Reserve Stimulus Leads to 0% Bonds

On March 15th, the Federal Reserve started the first round of its stimulus plan to stabilize the tumultuous economic conditions caused by the country-wide shut down due to COVID19. Significant was a $700 billion round of Quantitative Easing (QE) and the cutting of interest rates effectively to zero percent. The reaction of the stock market and most asset classes was to continue its downward trend that had started in late February. The Federal Reserve continued to make smaller policy changes during the next 8 days until March 23rd when it announced its “extensive new measures to support the economy”. In short, the Fed is expanding its QE program announced on March 15th and will be making additional expansions in the future as needed. This time Wall Street reacts positively, as March 23rd was the starting point of a historic bull run.

The Breaking of the 60/40 Model

The 60/40 model of portfolio allocation has been a traditional portfolio management strategy used for over 30 years. The strategy states to put 60% of your funds into stocks and the remaining 40% into high quality bonds. The philosophy behind this investment strategy is that by having your portfolio diversified this way, you won’t take a huge hit if your stocks go down because you’ll have returns from bonds to make up for it. This is a strategy generally used by people with low risk tolerances, or people who don’t want to constantly keep their eyes on the markets. Over the past few decades, the 60/40 model has demonstrated a good amount of success; however, there are many who believe the chances of this strategy continuing to function successfully into the future are very low.
Both JP Morgan and Bank of America have released statements on the decline of the 60/40 portfolio. JP Morgan strategists have stated “In the zero-yield world, which we think will be with us for years, bonds offer neither much return nor protection against equity falls,” referencing the fact that the majority of government bonds are trading at yields below 1%. In a research note titled “The Death of 60/40” Bank of America strategists had this to say, “The challenge for investors today is that both of those benefits from bonds, diversification and risk reduction, seem to be weakening, and this is happening at a time when positioning in many fixed-income sectors is incredibly crowded, making bonds more vulnerable to sharp, sudden selloffs when active managers rebalance.”
So, with diminishing trust and poor returns from bonds, many investors are looking for other assets to replace the 40% hole in their portfolios. Many are increasing their percentage allocated to stocks in addition to investing in Gold and other metals as a protection against inflation. Many investors are also looking to Bitcoin.

Asset Reallocation Flowing from Bonds to Stocks

The historical runup in stock prices, specifically for the tech heavy Nasdaq, started on March 23rd. With the NAS100 index up close to 60% (from $6,584 to $10,616) in less than 3 months. It's not showing any signs of slowing down. In the opinion of QuantifyCrypto, the major reason for this is the flow of capital that would normally be going into bonds is now going into stocks. Yes the Fed stimulus is positive, but can you say the market conditions are actually better for stocks when there is still uncertainty in the future? While some stocks are fundamentally better due to COVID19, this is not true for most stocks. The next chart shows the price movement of the NASDAQ 100 Index for 2020.


NAS100 Daily Chart from Trading View

Asset Reallocation to Cryptocurrency – When?

When asked about the current demise of the 60/40 portfolio model, veteran investor Dan Tapiero stated there could be “nothing more bullish for gold and bitcoin,” and that we are in the midst of the “beginning of the end for [government] bonds as a functioning productive asset class. Traditional 60/40 portfolios will need to find a new defensive asset to replace a portion of the 40%.” It seems that other players in the world of finance are saying similar things, hedge fund manager Paul Tudor Jones told CNBC in May that Bitcoin is a “great speculation” and that he has one to two percent of his assets in Bitcoin.
Historically, Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies tend to have higher volatility than stocks. Three days before the Federal Reserve started making its announcements, Bitcoin went down over 50% in a single day. High volatility and a full price recovery continued in April and May, with Bitcoin closing on May 30th at ~$10,440. Until this point, there had been a high correlation between the NASDAQ 100 and Bitcoin as shown in the chart below.

NAS100 Daily Chart with Bitcoin (blue line) added
Since June 1st, Bitcoin has clearly lagged while stocks have continued their upward climb. While Crypto has been stagnant and down since May, the fundamental picture has never been better:
  • The Central Bank stimulus response is inflationary to Fiat currencies, this is positive for non-inflationary assets like gold and cryptocurrency.
  • The lack of new funds moving into bonds is flowing into stocks. When the stock market advance slows or starts to decline, the flow into other assets classes will start to increase.
  • The full deflationary impact of the Bitcoin halving still has not kicked in.
  • Corporate adoption and use cases for cryptocurrency is accelerating (Future article).
  • Before COVID occurred, 2020 was looking like a very strong year for Bitcoin and Altcoins. This price strength is likely to return.
As government bonds continue to trade with yields below 1%, it is safe to say that more and more people will be abandoning the traditional 60/40 strategy. While it’s too early to determine what the new percent strategy will become, with Bitcoin presenting a clear solution to the problems with bonds and the diminishing value of cash, portfolio managers may very well be using cryptocurrency to solve their diversification requirement.

The platform Quantify Crypto provides live cryptocurrency prices, technical analysis, news, heatmaps and more. Our flagship product is the trend algorithm, designed to be on the correct side of significant cryptocurrency price moves. We are a new site, please check us out and let us know what you like and do not like about the site.
None of this is meant to be financial advice and I do not have any financial expertise. John Barry worked at the New York Stock Exchange for over 23 years, it was as a developer supporting computer systems, not as a stock trader.
Alex Wason is an intern working for Quantify Crypto
Full discloser: John Barry owns Bitcoin and has stock positions.
submitted by QuantifyCrypto to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

Bitcoin at $ 288,000? BTC price shows bullish signal like 2016

Bitcoin at $ 288,000? BTC price shows bullish signal like 2016
Bitcoin's price development has been relatively stable in recent weeks.
The cryptocurrency has been trading in the $ 9,200 range since early June, which is the price at the time of publication.
However, Bitcoin is currently showing signals that could indicate an upcoming bull market.
According to a report by the Kraken Stock Exchange, Bitcoin is only a 10% jump away from entering a massive upward trend.
As Kraken describes, to enter a bull market, Bitcoin must break the key resistance at $ 10,500, as shown below.
https://preview.redd.it/0d4bm64zsla51.png?width=1276&format=png&auto=webp&s=b3a670c135792f34af6714fc8ab9d48cef7dc77e
With that in mind, the report says Bitcoin could soon break resistance or take the risk of testing support at $ 6,000 to $ 7,000.
This would end a period that some analysts have described as very stable. In fact, this is similar to the price development in 2016 and 2017, when Bitcoin initially tended to move sideways for a very long time and finally reached its all-time high of USD 20,000 in late 2017.
According to analyst Moon Capital, the Bitcoin hash ribbons have crossed, revealing a massive buy signal that has historically pushed Bitcoin's price up. The signal was also there before the 2017 Bull Run.
Therefore, the analyst predicts that BTC will rise to $ 288,000.
The "hash ribbons" indicator is based on the hash rate of the Bitcoin network.
It is calculated by comparing the short-term moving average and the long-term moving average of the Bitcoin hash rate. As soon as these two cross, a bullish indicator is generated.
A breakdown is considered bearish.
Capriole's digital asset manager, Charles Edwards, also noted the formation of this indicator.
However, Edwards recommended waiting until midnight today (July 12th UTC) for the crossing of the hash ribbons to be confirmed. He also said the BTC price for confirmation should close above $ 9,230.

Bitcoin fundamentals support upcoming uptrend

On the other hand, Bitcoin's fundamentals seem to support a bull market. Bitcoin's hash rate has increased significantly since the difficulty adjustment in June.
According to blockchain.com, the hash rate of Bitcoin reached a new high of 125.99 terra hashes per second (TH / s) on July 7.
In this context, analyst and inventor of Bitcoin's stock-to-flow model, Plan B, said Bitcoin has weathered the worst of the past few months.
In addition, he stressed that the cryptocurrency will soon peak at its hash rate, confirming the good health of the Bitcoin network.
submitted by jakkkmotivator to thecryptobasic [link] [comments]

Crypto Research expects multiple Bitcoin growth by 2025–2030

Experts from Crypto Research predicted how many years investors should wait for a multiple increase in the rate of the first cryptocurrency and what would happen to altcoins in this case.
Bitcoin can rise up to $341 thousand by 2025, and up to $397 thousand by 2030. The calculations are based on the concept of the total volume of target market (Total Addressable Market), which includes money transfers, offshore accounts, savings, online transactions, cryptocurrency trading, blockchain games, consumer loans, reserve currencies, etc.
The researchers are sure that in case Bitcoin grows, altcoins will also rise in price. According to their forecasts, in five years the Ethereum rate may rise by 1,500% and exceed $3,500, and the cost of Bitcoin Cash – by 3,000%, up to $6,700. The greatest growth is expected from the Stellar token (XLM) – by 3800%, to $2.40.
In March, a similar forecast was provided by analysts at the Kraken exchange. According to their calculations, the rate of the first cryptocurrency can rise to $350,000 by 2044. This will happen as soon as the younger generation invests about $1 trillion in digital assets.
According to cryptanalyst Willy Woo, a new “exponential” BTC rally could begin in July. This is indicated by his new price model of Bitcoin.
Meanwhile, a well-known Bitcoin critic Peter Schiff rules out the possibility of repeating the BTC rally. According to him, in 2020 gold will rise in price to a new historical maximum, while Bitcoin no longer has the strength to grow.
submitted by CoinjoyAssistant to u/CoinjoyAssistant [link] [comments]

Bitcoin’s Mainstream Adoption

Bitcoin’s Mainstream Adoption
How financial system has changed its rigid views in favor of cryptocurrencies.
by StealthEX
It goes without saying that the real value of anything can be judged only through practical, everyday use of it. With Bitcoin, as with cryptocurrencies in general, it is no different. Although the concept of a decentralized digital ledger as it is represented by the leading cryptocurrency may seem enticing and masterly on its own, ultimately, it still comes down to the actual application and usability in real life. And this is where BTC adoption within the existing financial system comes into play as one metric to gauge its genuine success or utmost failure, arguably the most telling and important one.

A medium of exchange

Bitcoin was envisioned as a peer-to-peer electronic cash system, synonymous with the idea of using it as a medium of exchange or means of payment (the latter two being essentially six of one and half a dozen of the other). As everything big out there, Bitcoin started small. What went completely unnoticed in 2008 now came to be a major factor capable of affecting the entire global financial system.
But before that, Bitcoin was used as a means of exchange and payment in the markets which shouldn’t have been there in the first place. These were the days when the Dark Web was the primary and likely only driver behind Bitcoin adoption rate, and that’s also happened to be the reason why so many governments turned heavily against it back in the day. Bitcoin had received a bad rap as a currency for conducting illegal operations, mostly selling drugs on black markets like now-defunct Silk Road.
It was not until late 2012 that Bitcoin started to attract attention of the general public after the launch of Coinbase in the summer of that year. Around that time the first attempts to regulate the top cryptocurrency had begun, and the overall negative attitude toward BTC started to change. All in all, the period between 2008 and 2012 was likely the only time in Bitcoin’s eventful and intense history when most of its adoption came about through using it as a real currency and a means of payment, even if primarily for illegal purposes and criminal activities.

A store of value and investment asset

Bitcoin today as we know it has only become possible after many thousands of speculators and investors started to pour their money into the cryptocurrency in the hope of earning off the future growth. No matter how you look at it, whether you like it or not since 2013 Bitcoin adoption has been expanding mostly by attracting people who are interested in it as an alternative, non-sovereign store of value and investment asset. Today Bitcoin as an investment asset and store of value totally took over the Bitcoin as a means of payment and exchange.
The godfather of all cryptocurrencies has seen plenty of ups and downs, which posed a valid concern regarding how it would perform as a grown-up investment asset. Now that we have seen oil prices go into negative territory and fall as low as -37 dollars per barrel, a lot of these doubts have been dispelled. It is little wonder that institutional investors are nowadays looking into Bitcoin as a robust hedge against inflation and sinking economies in a world fraught with recession risks and plagued by the coronavirus pandemic. For example, in 2019 alone cryptocurrency assets under the management of hedge funds more than doubled – to over 2 billion dollars, with around 150 hedge funds actively investing in cryptocurrencies today.
It is no surprise either that during the last couple of years Bitcoin has risen substantially in the eyes of the institutional beholders, all the way up from the bottom, from an outcast, and sometimes even an outright outlaw, to a level on par with such an established store of value as gold. The famous hedge fund manager and billionaire Paul Tudor Jones, who manages around 22 billion dollars through his BVI Global Fund, recently confirmed that he has invested a few percent of his assets in Bitcoin as a hedge against inflation and central banks printing money out of thin air. Altogether, this leaves no doubt that Bitcoin has become a viable and legit investment choice in the realm of institutional money.

A value transfer vehicle

International money transfers have always been a pain in the neck – slow, costly, complicated. As Bitcoin needs no banking institutions to conduct money transfers, be it domestic or global, it has become a value transfer vehicle of choice for people willing to send money with no involvement of banks and payments processors. Historically, making overseas remittances with Bitcoin was among the first use cases of this cryptocurrency.
Cross-border remittances have been recognized as an important source of private capital flows for developing countries. Bitcoin and its crypto brethren have firmly established themselves in this niche for the simple reason many people in poor countries don’t have a bank account and thus can’t access bank services, aside from overall poor banking infrastructure there along with reasonable concerns about the stability of national currencies in backward economies.
Without cryptocurrencies, it would be impossible to receive financial support from abroad provided by migrant workers to their families. This led to an emergence of a wide variety of bitcoin-based remittance services such as BitPesa, Rebit, Bloom, Payphil, to name but just a few, that offer such services for African and Asian countries. They are typically using Bitcoin as a value transfer medium concealing the cryptocurrency from users by converting the sender’s fiat currency into bitcoins and then converting back to the receiver’s fiat currency.

Problems and solutions

One of the major problems Bitcoin faces is not strictly specific to it as it stems from an innate conflict between the two major functions of money. As it happens, a medium of exchange function doesn’t live quite well with a store of value function. A good medium of exchange, or means of payment, should be inflationary to facilitate its use as a currency that you pay with, say, in a grocery store. On the other hand, a good store of value should be the opposite of that to maintain and possibly increase its value over time. Realistically, such a dilemma cannot be effectively resolved from within Bitcoin itself.
As a result, the main cryptocurrency has developed into a trusted, battle-tested investment asset which already established a firm foothold in the corporate investment sector. This is in stark contrast to its promise as a functional currency where Bitcoin still massively lags behind fiat. Is there any way to fix that? The solution probably lies in the separation of different functions between Bitcoin and altcoins. The former will most certainly continue to evolve as a solid store of value. Whether the latter can live up to their collective role of an efficient means of payment, we have yet to find out.
And remember if you need to exchange your coins StealthEX is here for you. We provide a selection of more than 250 coins and constantly updating the list so that our customers will find a suitable option. Just go to StealthEX and follow these easy steps:
✔ Choose the pair and the amount for your exchange. For example ETH to BTC.
✔ Press the “Start exchange” button.
✔ Provide the recipient address to which the coins will be transferred.
✔ Move your cryptocurrency for the exchange.
✔ Receive your coins.
Follow us on Medium, Twitter, Facebook, and Reddit to get StealthEX.io updates and the latest news about the crypto world. For all requests message us via [email protected].
Original article was posted on https://stealthex.io/blog/2020/07/07/bitcoins-mainstream-adoption/
submitted by Stealthex_io to StealthEX [link] [comments]

Why should bitcoin cost $18,000 today and why can it fall down to $6,900 towards autumn?

Why should bitcoin cost $18,000 today and why can it fall down to $6,900 towards autumn?

https://preview.redd.it/nj9f1jkfvv551.png?width=1828&format=png&auto=webp&s=6fa64d596132b28e8ebc21a1ef7cc2d048552ae9

Bitcoin should cost $18,000 today

Analyst PlanB writes. According to his estimates, the correlation between the S&P 500 index and bitcoin is 95% and the cryptocurrency is underestimated today.
With the current index, BTC should cost $18,000, the analyst points out.
PlanB also notes that the charts of both equities fit into the S2F model — according to the forecast, the next peak of bitcoin will occur at the level of $288,000 and S&P 500 will rise up to $4,300 in this case.

The BTC price will continue to fall

Popular trader CryptoCapo posted a series of tweets where he compared the current bitcoin chart with historical data.
The detected "fractals" presuppose that the bitcoin exchange rate will continue to go down. According to the analyst, the price is ready to break through the support trend line. If the rate goes below $9,200, the next goal will be the level of $8,550, the breakthrough of which will definitely confirm the bear trend.
CryptoCapo earlier posted the Wyckoff method estimate according to which the current accumulation would trigger the price movement to the point of $1,600.

Bitcoin will go down to $6,900 towards autumn

Crypto analyst Dave the Wave points out. According to his conclusions, the bitcoin exchange rate should drop down to the lower side of the global triangle where there is also the Fibonacci correction level of 0.382.
The analyst points out that indicators confirm the bearish attitude and "the last but one chance" to buy at a low price will be near the level of $6,900.
submitted by bestchange_pr to bestchange [link] [comments]

History of Bitcoin (BTC) Exchange Rates Live BTC, ETC, XRP, BCH, ADA, BSV, LTC, CRO ... Bitcoins - YouTube How to Buy Bitcoin for ETH  Best Rates for Bitcoin Exchanges on SwapSpace.co How to Use Bitcoin Exchange Rate Charts

I'm looking for historical exchange rate data for Bitcoins/USD beginning in 2010, but I haven't been successful. This is for academic research. I tried bitchart.org. I don't know how to access the MtGox API either. Can you help me with a step-by-step procedure to download the data in CSV format (or any other format)? The Bitcoin price chart provides historical price values and exchange rate values for the last 6 months. When Bitcoin’s network first began, Bitcoin’s block reward was 50 BTC per block mined. This was halved in 2012, at block #210,000, where the block reward became 25 BTC. The second halving was in 2016, at block #420,000, and the block reward became 12.5 BTC. 1 Bitcoin Exchange Rate 1 Bitcoin Currency Converter 1ExchangeRate.com provides currency converter from Bitcoin currency to any other currency rate. Bitcoin exchange conversions are also available for inverse. Investing.com Bitcoin Index Historical Data Get free historical data for Investing.com BTC Index. You'll find the closing price, open, high, low, change and %change for the selected range of dates.

[index] [12754] [6104] [14303] [18266] [29774] [22710] [22038] [6034] [20525] [3167]

History of Bitcoin (BTC)

Cryptocurrency Licensed Exchange - https://bit.ly/32bqBlF Hide chat Show chat Autoplay When autoplay is enabled, a suggested video will automatically play next. This video contains BTC-USD exchange rates up from 1st September 2010 to 11th July 2020 How much will it go up? And, how much more will it fall? Tag: #BTC #Bitcoin #History_of_Bitcoin #Bitcoin ... Glassnode analytic service unveiled a new weekly report, which noted the continued stability Bitcoin (BTC) exchange rate while improving the fundamental picture. In the considered segment ... See the Bitcoin exchange rate i.e. the current value of one bitcoin. Convert any amount to or from your preferred currency. Download: Password File:neo This video represent history of BTC-USD exchange rate until 2017.12.07. Bitcoin price is like crazy right now. How much will rising up? and, How much will falling down? Datasource: https://www ...

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