Ethereum 2.0 update is just around the corner: plans and opinions
Recently, Ethereum (ETH) has shown a rise and managed to bypass Bitcoin in terms of the price increase. This is due to the upcoming technical update, which should increase the value of both the Ethereum network and cryptocurrency.
Buterin: plans and forecasts
Vitalik Buterin claimed the Ethereum 2.0 protocol update, which will change the Ethereum consensus mechanism to Proof-of-stake (PoS), is still planned to be introduced in July. The update, also referred to as Serenity, has been delayed several times. Initially, the launch of Ethereum 2.0 was scheduled for January 3, 2020 – the day of the 11th anniversary of Bitcoin, but the developers decided to postpone it to the middle of 2020. Later the developers said that the update would be deployed on July 30, 2020 – the day of the fifth anniversary of the launch of Ethereum. At the Consensus: Distributed conference, the father founder of Ethereum said that the Ethereum 2.0 test network had been already launched, and the first stages of implementation began in early May 2020. Buterin also noted that many Ethereum development groups were working on scaling initiatives that would be implemented shortly after a successful release of PoS. These include well-known methods, such as sharding, which splits the nodes of the global network into segments, so that each group of nodes has the same bandwidth as the current network of Ethereum. Buterin additionally mentioned new scaling solutions that are currently being tested. One of them is the Optimistic Rollup second-stage solution, which “theoretically may be scaled to more than 1,000 transactions per second” even inside the current Ethereum network.
Ethereum blockchain expansion
The founder of the Ethereum ecosystem hints that the update will significantly affect the price. In one of the Reddit threads, Buterin stated the Ethereum Classic blockchain could merge with the Etherium 2.0. This would add approximately $975 million to capitalization, which would certainly have a positive effect on price increases. The price of Ethereum shows stable growth, it reached $245 on June 24, 2020. Summary in “Technicals” for a 1-month period shows strong Ethereum BUY action. Also, the planned ETH burning mechanism will further reduce the supply of coins in the market. Accordingly, the rate of the second cryptocurrency will grow. The increase of the ETH rate should also be facilitated by the fact that now it has become much easier for retail beginner investors to use fiat currencies to purchase cryptocurrencies.
The forecasts of the crypto community experts contribute a lot into the opinion “Ethereum is a good investment”: “From a developer’s perspective, Ethereum is the most famous blockchain in which most smart contracts and decentralized applications are deployed,” – said Damien Brener, founder, and CEO of OpenZeppelin. According to the co-founder and head of Kenetic Capital, Jehan Chu, even though the update has been developed for 5 years, during this time not a single cryptocurrency was able to take the position of Ethereum. “Ether continues to be the second-largest cryptocurrency, and its recent price spike demonstrates the long-term confidence of traders in its market position,” – Chu stated.
In every 210K mined blocks a planned (programmed) event takes place. This event is called halving. It is a regular reduction of miners’ fee (reward) for a produced block. Bitcoin creator put these halvings in software to keep inflation in check. Most commonly one block is being mined in 9 minutes and 20 seconds. According to this, halving occurs every four years. The Bitcoin network had two halvings: first in 2012 and then in 2016. If we look back and remember how much coins miners could earn in the early history of Bitcoin, it was 50 BTC for one block. Later on, after the first halving, the fee was equal to 25 BTC and the same happened four years after, then the reward was cut down to 12.5 BTC. The next (third) halving may be expected in May 2020. The payoff then will be reduced to 6.25 BTC. This will actually continue till there’s no award left (this will approximately happen in 2140). So why is there a need for halving? If coins are produced very fast or the amount of emitted BTC is not limited, there will be so many Bitcoins in circulation that they will have limited value. Vitalik Buterin once said in his interview with Bitcoin Magazine: «The main reason why this is done is to keep inflation under control.»
What will happen with BTC price after Bitcoin halving?
Like any other cryptocurrency price prediction, the Bitcoin price prediction is always hard to make, so we can just guess looking at a combination of factors. Opinions are divided as follows: some think that the BTC price will go up and others think nothing will generally change and the price will stay the same. There are also skeptics that see the halving as bad luck. They believe that if even 10 percent of miners quit, it might scare away the investors and make them move out their assets. As a result, the Bitcoin price will go down. After the first Bitcoin halving the BTC price grew almost two hundredfold, the second time it grew sevenfold. Both times BTC had increased volatility. But no one can guarantee the same events nowadays. As far as we can see from the previous halvings, they had the same dynamics: the Bitcoin price grew up. This gives some people hope that it will repeat after the next BTC halving in May 2020. What are people’s opinions and predictions regarding the next Bitcoin halving? Let’s have a look. The CEO of Pantera Capital Dan Morehead predicts the rise of BTC after the coming halving:
“It’s right on the trend line, and I think it’s a good shot that by the end of the year, we hit that, and then if you just extrapolate that line out for another year, it’s $122,000 per Bitcoin and in one more year $356,000.”
Tom Lee from Fundstrat Global Advisors posted a part of the report regarding crypto outlook 2020. Here what is said regarding the BTC price in that report:
“For 2020, we see several positive convergences that enhance the use case and also the economic model for crypto and Bitcoin – thus, we believe Bitcoin and crypto total return should exceed that of 2019. In other words, we see strong probability that Bitcoin gains >100% in 2020.”
Bobby Lee (co-founder and CEO of BTC China) also expressed his opinion via twit saying:
“After next #BlockRewardHalving in Spring of 2020, new #Bitcoin output will drop again, to just 900 BTC/day. I predict #HashPower will continue to grow, with ever higher amounts of investment in mining (electricity costs). If that amount reaches $54m/day, we‘ll have $BTC at $60k.”
Jason A. Williams had an “unpopular opinion”:
“Unpopular Opinion – Bitcoin halving in May 2020 won’t do anything to the price. It will be a non-event.”
John McAfee is insanely positive as usual when speaking about the Bitcoin price prediction:
“When I predicted Bitcoin at $500,000 by the end of 2020, it used a model that predicted $5,000 at the end of 2017. BTC has accelerated much faster than my model assumptions. I now predict Bitcoin at $1 million by the end of 2020. I will still eat my d\ck if wrong.”*
Paolo Ardoino (Bitfinex & Tether Chief Technology Officer) said the following in his interview to U.Today:
“The halving is expected to occur next year, and I think it’s reasonable to expect an increase in the price of Bitcoin. I won’t do any price predictions myself and this is not financial or other advice from me or from Bitfinex or Tether, but I don’t see any reason for Bitcoin not hitting $100,000 within the next few years. That would already be an amazing goal for such technology.”
Tone Vays (Financial analyst) is less ambitious. That’s what he thinks:
“Technically, everything is in play until end of 2020, after that sub $5,000 is not likely. Worst Case Scenario: prices drop to $5k into the halving, then after halving 70% of miners shut down due to negative revenue, #Bitcoin spirals down in price but then rises from the dead!”
Petros Anagnostou, the founder of Crypto Solutions declares:
“My prediction: Bitcoin will reach $12,000 before the end of this year. And will reach a price of $50,000 – $100,000 by the end of 2020.”
To summarize, the forthcoming BTC halving 2020 will be a kind of guarantee that there will be no inflation, and investments will be profitable. At the same time, it is being one of the key factors responsible for the growth of the Bitcoin price. When it comes to miners, they usually feel stressed about it as to keep their income at the same level they will need to invest in new technical equipment. As for those who don’t mine but just buy Bitcoin to keep BTC as a cryptocurrency investment, the BTC halving will barely have any effect on them. No one can predict what exactly will happen after the upcoming BTC halving. It is always up to you either be on the optimistic side or be one of the doubters. This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You are the only one responsible for making investment decisions.
Vitalik Buterin, co-founder of Ethereum, suggests that the current DeFi hype surrounding the COMP token is basically a promotional tool, and that ultimately, it is unsustainable. Recently, Buterin joined the Bankless podcast; hosted by Ryan Sean Adams the founder of Mythos Capital, to discuss the past, present, and future of Ethereum. — vitalik.eth (@VitalikButerin) July 21, 2020. While this may not be a security issue today, the higher fees versus block rewards can pose a threat to the network in the long-term. This potential risk has been analyzed in a research paper from Princeton, which actually discussed Bitcoin. Vitalik urges EIP-1559 adoption. Buterin’s post cites the 2016 paper titled On the Instability of Bitcoin Without the Block Reward that was authored by four researchers from Princeton University, outlining the risks associated with increasing transaction fees. Buterin and some analysts have judged the stock-to-flow model to be defective. In contrast to popular opinions, Ethereum’s co-founder Vitalik Buterin believes that the movement of Bitcoin price cannot be determined by factors such as price models or the occurrence of certain events. Vitalik Buterin, the co-founder of Ethereum, doesn’t think much of quant analyst PlanB’s “stock-to-flow” model, which holds that Bitcoin’s price will shoot up to $288,000 by 2024. The stock-to-flow model argues that the price of Bitcoin will rise post-halving because there’s a small supply shock to the market.
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