[HALVING MEGATHREAD] Block 630000 has been mined. Mining subsidy is now 6.25 BTC per block. The third Bitcoin Halving is now complete!
As of now, 630,000 blocks have been mined on the Bitcoin network, and the block reward has successfully halved for the secondTHIRD time. The previous block reward was 12.5 BTC, and the new block reward is now 6.25 BTC. Since the previous halving at Block 420000, monetary inflation decreased from 4.17%% to 3.57%. Block 630000 signals an immediate 50% reduction to 1.79%. The next halving will occur at Block 840000 in approximately four years. Godspeed, Bitcoin! Here's Block 630000 in all its glory!
In the last 24 hours, Bitcoin's Nakamoto Coefficient (a measure of decentralization) has dropped to TWO. Bitmain and F2Pool now control 62% of the hashrate
Is anyone else watching the mining pool charts? It seems like the large pools are slowly killing off the smaller pools. BTC.com and AntPool are both Bitmain: https://btc.com/stats/pool?pool_mode=day From the Bitcoin wiki:
Note that in the reality of bitcoin mining today, more than 6 confirmations are required. (60 confirmations to have <1% odds of succeeding against an entity with 40% hash power). See Section 11 of the (https://bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf bitcoin whitepaper) for the AttackerSuccessProbability formula.
Compared to Bitcoin, How Decentralized is Bitcoin Cash?
I guess the ultimate gauge for any cryptocurrency would be the degree of permissionlessness that exists within the original platform and continuing protocal. Would anyone here attempt to argue that Bitcoin cash is as decentralized as Bitcoin? Is that even important to most investors? Is/can Bitcoin cash moving/move towards a greater degree of decentralization?
The Mysterious Entity that Caused the Bitcoin Network fees to Jump 146% in May
The Mysterious Entity that Caused the Bitcoin Network fees to Jump 146% in May May 25, 2020 SHARE0 Bitcoin price has yet again taken a dive to $8,800, recording a drop of 4%. Meanwhile, Network Demand Score which is a metric incorporating network velocity, transaction value, fees, and miner’s rolling inventory, climbed to 6/6 following the bitcoin halving meaning the network is growing stronger which could also be a sign that “we’re in a longer-term bull market.” Since March 12th, just before the massive sell-off, this score has remained above a 3/6 reflecting growing strength in network activity and instilling confidence in the ongoing uptrend for the bitcoin price. 3 Reasons why fees skyrocketed One component of this indicator, bitcoin on-chain fees has been surging like crazy. Last week, Bitcoin average transaction fee climbed to $7, last seen in February 2018. This has the miner revenues from fees rising to the levels not seen for more than 2 years. But this week, it also dropped 55% to $3.13. The increase in transaction fees, which is increasingly becoming more important for Bitcoin network security, has been because of the unconfirmed transactions piling on in mempool. A decline in hash rate following halving caused fewer blocks to be found and will continue until the next difficulty adjustment has been one of the reasons behind this jump in fees. The other reason is the large fluctuations in bitcoin price which has traders sending coins between exchanges. Ather reason is a “mysterious entity which has been consolidating outputs at the highest fee rates, driving up fees for everyone,” pointed out Serrrgej Kotliar, CEO Bitrefill. Who is this “Crazy1o1”? Over the weekend Kotliar shared how, for the past 14 days, this mysterious entity has consolidated a lower-bound of 720 thousand outputs, 5 MB per day, more than BitMEX. Since May 1st, this entity named “Crazy1o1” has spent around 804k UTXOs and has paid more than 104BTC in mining fees during this time, noted Laurent. “On some days, these fees are equivalent to 10-12% of all the fees received by miners,” he said. Laurent along with others suspect this entity to be the cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase. Earlier this month, it was also found that crypto derivatives exchange BitMEX is making the bitcoin network expensive for everyone and its own users are paying 6.8% of total daily transaction fees. Prepare for the next bull market All of this a “decent fire drill for what might happen if we see another bull market,” said Kotliar. Grubles from Blockstream said, “ON-CHAIN FEES AND BTC PRICE MOVEMENTS CHART. YOU CAN SEE THAT BIG MOVEMENTS RESULT IN PEOPLE RUSHING TO TRANSACT (ALMOST CERTAINLY TO/FROM EXCHANGES), PUSHING FEES UP FOR OTHER NON-TRADER USERS WHO NEED UNCENSORABLE / IRREVERSIBLE TRANSACTIONS.” The fees reached its all-time high at over $55 during the peak of the bull market in December 2017. As such in the next bull market, a 5x growth in on-chain transactions should be expected. But given that batching, one of the many ways the network has been scaled is here, it will prevent the pressure on the network from getting worse than 2017. But exchanges will need to be prepared for this.
Below are notable difficulty adjustments when hash rate fell and block times become slower for Bitcoin.
26 Mar 2020 [difficulty adjustment -15.95%, avg block time 11min 54secs]. On the 28th price crashed from $6674 to $6138 ( -8%).
8 Nov 2019 [difficulty adjustment -7.1%, avg block time 10min 46secs]. On the same day price crashed from $9234 to $8783 ( -4.88%).
The next big adjustment was around Nov to Dec 2018 and there were 3 big adjustments with high block times.
19 Dec 2018 [-9.56%, avg block time 11min 3secs]
3 Dec 2018 [-15.13%, avg block time 11min 47secs]
17 Nov 2018 [-7.39%, avg block time 10min 48secs]
There was huge drop off starting on 14th Nov all the way to a bottom on 14-15th Dec ($6351 to $3288 around -48%).
Current situation: We are 1 day 10 hours from the next difficulty adjustment. Projected difficulty adjustment is -5.61% (https://fork.lol/pow/retarget), which could indicate a small dip. However, take note that the date of last adjustment was the 5th and the 3rd halving was on the 11th, between the 5th to the 11th there was increased hashrate from miners trying to mine the final week of 12.5btc that offset the really slow block times after the halving. Therefore it will be the next difficulty adjustment after the one on the 20th that will completely reflect the slower block times after the halving. Currently the median block time taken on the 17th was around 14min (-28.5% difficulty adjustment). For people who do not understand blockchain, basically with the Bitcoin 3rd halving, mining profitability fell for a lot of miners and they probably turned off their miners therefore the blockchain mining time became considerably slower which is reflected with slow transaction speed and higher fees as seen currently. Bitcoin sellers moving their BTC from wallet to an exchange are faced with slow transaction speed and therefore the sell pressure of BTC fell considerably which will attribute to the current price increase. There is a correlation between sell pressure and blockchain congestion (the size of the correlation is undetermined). There is going to be a race. A race between BTC price hiking high enough to attract more miners to reduce avg block times versus the closing window of roughly 2 weeks before the next difficulty adjustment. If the price does not jump high enough, the next difficulty adjustment in the first week of June could signal a huge dip. I am not an expert. I just did some research on the above and wanted to share with fellow Bitcoin compatriots so that we can tread with caution and not lose our shirts. I do not plan to short BTC but I will exit my BTC positions if I expect double digit negative difficulty adjustment in early June. Please visit the original post here https://www.reddit.com/Bitcoin/comments/gm23pe/warning_blockchain_difficulty_adjustment/ There are pictures in the original post as well as 2nd halving evidence with pics. I could not post pics here. If possible please upvote the original post, a lot of people downvote it. Not sure why people downvote it, maybe veterans attempting to hide information from newcomers to fleece them of their shirt. Update 1:>! As of writing, I have opened a small short position on Bitcoin. Stop loss around 10k, estimated take profit around 8500. The reason is because the difficulty adjustment in the next 20 hours, even though is just -5% roughly is still significant. I direct you to look into all the difficulty adjustments in the last 2 years and you will know how rare it is. The ones I caught were all listed at the very top of the post. Since it is my first time shorting BTC, I take this as a learning opportunity so that I will have some experience to face the bigger difficulty adjustment in the first week of June. Analysis into execution, even in failure I am happy.!< Update 2: The difficulty adjustment (DA) happened roughly 6 hours ago and the sell pressure from -6% DA did not seem to be affecting the market much. However, please take a look now at the estimation for the next DA. On https://bitcoin.clarkmoody.com/dashboard/ it is estimated to be -25%. On https://fork.lol/pow/retarget estimated to be -18%. On https://www.blockchain.com/charts/median-confirmation-time the median block time for the last day was 16.8min. My original proposition that the true DA of the halving can only be realized in the next DA stands and that it will be considerable. The increased sell pressure from that DA will be highly significant. That is why there is a race by current miners to get the BTC price up high enough to attract more miners to not have the DA drop too much. Update 3: Current BTC price at $9100 ( ~39 hours after DA). Then again BTC could have dropped from all sorts of reason. However the coincidence with the DA and with all the past DA is just too high to simply shrug off as irrelevant. Anyways past result cannot predict future ones, stay safe with the trading. Will no longer check on this post. References: Difficulty adjustment dates taken from https://btc.com/stats/diff Bitcoin graph history for price movement taken from coinmarketcap. Median confirmation time (block time) taken from https://www.blockchain.com/charts/median-confirmation-time Credits to people who assisted the analysis: kairepaire for pointing out faster block times between 5th-11th. babies_eater for https://fork.lol/pow/retarget moes_tavern_wifi for https://bitcoin.clarkmoody.com/dashboard/ Pantamis for https://diff.cryptothis.com/
Firstly, let me say, I hate how energy-intensive Bitcoin is and would never support the market for mining it in the long-term. However, below are what I believe to be a series of perceived catalysts for MARA as a swing play. Yes, some are more compelling than others. And yes, some should never even be graced with the name 'catalyst', but in the era of Lambos and rocketships, they will very much (unfortunately) be taken as such by those more naive to the space. What does MARA do? MARA mines Bitcoin. What is Bitcoin? In essence, a digital currency. A form of value not governed by any government or centralized institution. Hopefully this isn't news to you, but if not, here is a good place to start. What is mining? In essence, the process that is required to generate new bitcoins (better explanation here). Much like mining for gold or drilling for oil, you need to follow a process in order to generate more Bitcoin. Much like other commodities too, the price that they are selling for has a big impact on how profitable miners are. Why MARA, why now? Bitcoin has been flirting with the $10,000 mark for some time now. $10k for Bitcoin is a bit like $1 for a penny stock. It's tough to break, but once you do, a lot of heads start to turn. If Bitcoin moves, MARA is more than probably going to follow suit. Catalysts
Last time Bitcoin broke $10k price on 2nd June, MARA jumped from 0.72 to 0.91 (26% up) at the opening and ended the day at 0.82 (14% up). Bitcoin chart & MARA Chart
Companies with exact same business model are up 100-200% in the past month (DPW & NETE)
Message volume is up 40% on MARA StockTwits ("change in social interest or social momentum.")
Convertible Note Fully Converted to Equity reducing long term debt reduced to zero in May (here)
The sector is heating up due to Bitcoin price increases recently. MARA have managed to secure additional mining capacity despite it becoming increasingly hard to do so.
"The company now has additional mining capacity scheduled to arrive in May, July, and August of this year. Only one NASDAQ listed company has announced more hashing power coming online this summer than Marathon". (here)
"With the recent price increase of Bitcoin, the forward months of each batch of production capacity of Bitcoin miners has been selling out. The company has worked very aggressively to acquire miners with the nearest delivery dates so the miners may be put into production as soon as possible." (here)
Company Estimates 280% Increase in Operating Hashrate to 129 PH/s when miners are received and deployed in July (here)
Q2 revenue should show a significant jump given the additional capacity and rise in Bitcoin price.
Reported revenues of $592,487 during the three months ended March 31, 2020 - up 157% from the same period year before.
This was with far less mining capacity and a Bitcoin price sitting far lower at between $7,000-8,500. (here)
Bitcoin Vault price today is $406.41 with a 24-hour trading volume of $25,640,044. BTCV price is up 1.4% in the last 24 hours. It has a circulating supply of 0 coins and a max supply of 21 Million coins. BKEX is the current most active market trading it. Because the Hash Rate requires real world computing power and resource investment that cannot be faked, this chart also represents technical and monetary investment in the infrastructure of Bitcoin Core (BTC). A cryptographic hash function takes digital data of any size as input and produces a random (but fixed-size) string of digital data as Bitcoin Average hashrate (hash/s) per day chart. Transactions Block Size Sent from addresses Difficulty Hashrate Price in USD Mining Profitability Sent in USD Avg. Transaction Fee Median Transaction Fee Block Time Market Capitalization Avg. Transaction Value Median Transaction Value Tweets GTrends Active Addresses Top100ToTotal Fee in Reward Because the Hash Rate requires real world computing power and resource investment that cannot be faked, this chart also represents technical and monetary investment in the infrastructure of Bitcoin Cash (BCH). A cryptographic hash function takes digital data of any size as input and produces a random (but fixed-size) string of digital data as Bitcoin Incognito is an anonymous and fast cryptocurrency which sticks to the original standards of Bitcoin; keeping the user base incognito. By implementing Zerocoin Protocol and Proof-of-Stake technology they believe they are the closest thing to Satoshi's vision since Bitcoin itself.
China Controls 50% of Bitcoin Mining While US Hits 14% — New Survey
Recently, RT host Max Keiser said he was convinced that a “global hash war” in Bitcoin would see the U. S. corner increasing amounts of hash rate as part of a three-way tussle — not with ... We discuss the hash ribbons indicator which has flashed the buy signal on the bitcoin chart. We talk about the previous times it flashed in bitcoin's price h... Bitcoin 7-day average hash rate 1-year chart. Source: BlockchainHash rate is an estimate of how much computing power miners are devoting to processing Bitcoin transactions. A higher average ... The Hash Ribbon indicator with the 3-day chart of Bitcoin. Source: Cole Garner , TradingView.comThe basic theory of the Hash Ribbon indicator is that the Bitcoin market tends to reach a bottom ... Last time bitcoin hash rate took a nosedive to a new low, bitcoin price turned bullish. This is what btc price charts tell us! #Bitcoin #btc Headlines: