Why Bitcoin Mining is Still a Very Lucrative Venture

An extensive guide for cashing out bitcoin and cryptocurrencies into private banks

Hey guys.
Merry Xmas !
I am coming back to you with a follow up post, as I have helped many people cash out this year and I have streamlined the process. After my original post, I received many requests to be more specific and provide more details. I thought that after the amazing rally we have been attending over the last few months, and the volatility of the last few days, it would be interesting to revisit more extensively.
The attitude of banks around crypto is changing slowly, but it is still a tough stance. For the first partial cash out I operated around a year ago for a client, it took me months to find a bank. They wouldn’t want to even consider the case and we had to knock at each and every door. Despite all my contacts it was very difficult back in the days. This has changed now, and banks have started to open their doors, but there is a process, a set of best practices and codes one has to follow.
I often get requests from crypto guys who are very privacy-oriented, and it takes me months to have them understand that I am bound by Swiss law on banking secrecy, and I am their ally in this onboarding process. It’s funny how I have to convince people that banks are legit, while on the other side, banks ask me to show that crypto millionaires are legit. I have a solid background in both banking and in crypto so I manage to make the bridge, but yeah sometimes it is tough to reconcile the two worlds. I am a crypto enthusiast myself and I can say that after years of work in the banking industry I have grown disillusioned towards banks as well, like many of you. Still an account in a Private bank is convenient and powerful. So let’s get started.
There are two different aspects to your onboarding in a Swiss Private bank, compliance-wise.
*The origin of your crypto wealth
*Your background (residence, citizenship and probity)
These two aspects must be documented in-depth.
How to document your crypto wealth. Each new crypto millionaire has a different story. I may detail a few fun stories later in this post, but at the end of the day, most of crypto rich I have met can be categorized within the following profiles: the miner, the early adopter, the trader, the corporate entity, the black market, the libertarian/OTC buyer. The real question is how you prove your wealth is legit.
1. Context around the original amount/investment Generally speaking, your first crypto purchase may not be documented. But the context around this acquisition can be. I have had many cases where the original amount was bought through Mtgox, and no proof of purchase could be provided, nor could be documented any Mtgox claim. That’s perfectly fine. At some point Mtgox amounted 70% of the bitcoin transactions globally, and people who bought there and managed to withdraw and keep hold of their bitcoins do not have any Mtgox claim. This is absolutely fine. However, if you can show me the record of a wire from your bank to Tisbane (Mtgox's parent company) it's a great way to start.
Otherwise, what I am trying to document here is the following: I need context. If you made your first purchase by saving from summer jobs, show me a payroll. Even if it was USD 2k. If you acquired your first bitcoins from mining, show me the bills of your mining equipment from 2012 or if it was through a pool mine, give me your slushpool account ref for instance. If you were given bitcoin against a service you charged, show me an invoice.
2. Tracking your wealth until today and making sense of it. What I have been doing over the last few months was basically educating compliance officers. Thanks God, the blockchain is a global digital ledger! I have been telling my auditors and compliance officers they have the best tool at their disposal to lead a proper investigation. Whether you like it or not, your wealth can be tracked, from address to address. You may have thought all along this was a bad feature, but I am telling you, if you want to cash out, in the context of Private Banking onboarding, tracking your wealth through the block explorer is a boon. We can see the inflows, outflows. We can see the age behind an address. An early adopter who bought 1000 BTC in 2010, and let his bitcoin behind one address and held thus far is legit, whether or not he has a proof of purchase to show. That’s just common sense. My job is to explain that to the banks in a language they understand.
Let’s have a look at a few examples and how to document the few profiles I mentioned earlier.
The trader. I love traders. These are easy cases. I have a ton of respect for them. Being a trader myself in investment banks for a decade earlier in my career has taught me that controlling one’s emotions and having the discipline to impose oneself some proper risk management system is really really hard. Further, being able to avoid the exchange bankruptcy and hacks throughout crypto history is outstanding. It shows real survival instinct, or just plain blissed ignorance. In any cases traders at exchange are easy cases to corroborate since their whole track record is potentially available. Some traders I have met have automated their trading and have shown me more than 500k trades done over the span of 4 years. Obviously in this kind of scenario I don’t show everything to the bank to avoid information overload, and prefer to do some snacking here and there. My strategy is to show the early trades, the most profitable ones, explain the trading strategy and (partially expose) the situation as of now with id pages of the exchanges and current balance. Many traders have become insensitive to the risk of parking their crypto at exchange as they want to be able to trade or to grasp an occasion any minute, so they generally do not secure a substantial portion on the blockchain which tends to make me very nervous.
The early adopter. Provided that he has not mixed his coin, the early adopter or “hodler” is not a difficult case either. Who cares how you bought your first 10k btc if you bought them below 3$ ? Even if you do not have a purchase proof, I would generally manage to find ways. We just have to corroborate the original 30’000 USD investment in this case. I mainly focus on three things here:
*proof of early adoption I have managed to educate some banks on a few evidences specifically related to crypto markets. For instance with me, an old bitcointalk account can serve as a proof of early adoption. Even an old reddit post from a few years ago where you say how much you despise this Ripple premined scam can prove to be a treasure readily available to show you were early.
*story telling Compliance officers like to know when, why and how. They are human being looking for simple answers to simple questions and they don’t want like to be played fool. Telling the truth, even without a proof can do wonders, and even though bluffing might still work because banks don’t fully understand bitcoin yet, it is a risky strategy that is less and less likely to pay off as they are getting more sophisticated by the day.
*micro transaction from an old address you control This is the killer feature. Send a $20 worth transaction from an old address to my company wallet and to one of my partner bank’s wallet and you are all set ! This is gold and considered a very solid piece of evidence. You can also do a microtransaction to your own wallet, but banks generally prefer transfer to their own wallet. Patience with them please. they are still learning.
*signature message Why do a micro transaction when you can sign a message and avoid potentially tainting your coins ?
*ICO millionaire Some clients made their wealth participating in ETH crowdsale or IOTA ICO. They were very easy to deal with obviously and the account opening was very smooth since we could evidence the GENESIS TxHash flow.
The miner Not so easy to proof the wealth is legit in that case. Most early miners never took screenshot of the blocks on bitcoin core, nor did they note down the block number of each block they mined. Until the the Slashdot article from August 2010 anyone could mine on his laptop, let his computer run overnight and wake up to a freshly minted block containing 50 bitcoins back in the days. Not many people were structured enough to store and secure these coins, avoid malwares while syncing the blockchain continuously, let alone document the mined blocks in the process. What was 50 BTC worth really for the early miners ? dust of dollars, games and magic cards… Even miners post 2010 are generally difficult to deal with in terms of compliance onboarding. Many pool mining are long dead. Deepbit is down for instance and the founders are MIA. So my strategy to proof mining activity is as follow:
*Focusing on IT background whenever possible. An IT background does help a lot to bring some substance to the fact you had the technical ability to operate a mining rig.
*Showing mining equipment receipts. If you mined on your own you must have bought the hardware to do so. For instance mining equipment receipts from butterfly lab from 2012-2013 could help document your case. Similarly, high electricity bill from your household on a consistent basis back in the day could help. I have already unlocked a tricky case in the past with such documents when the bank was doubtful.
*Wallet.dat files with block mining transactions from 2011 thereafter This obviously is a fantastic piece of evidence for both you and me if you have an old wallet and if you control an address that received original mined blocks, (even if the wallet is now empty). I will make sure compliance officers understand what it means, and as for the early adopter, you can prove your control over these wallet through a microtransaction. With these kind of addresses, I can show on the block explorer the mined block rewards hitting at regular time interval, and I can even spot when difficulty level increased or when halvening process happened.
*Poolmining account. Here again I have educated my partner bank to understand that a slush account opened in 2013 or an OnionTip presence was enough to corroborate mining activity. The block explorer then helps me to do the bridge with your current wallet.
*Describing your set up and putting it in context In the history of mining we had CPU, GPU, FPG and ASICs mining. I will describe your technical set up and explain why and how your set up was competitive at that time.
The corporate entity Remember 2012 when we were all convinced bitcoin would take over the world, and soon everyone would pay his coffee in bitcoin? How naïve we were to think transaction fees would remain low forever. I don’t blame bitcoin cash supporters; I once shared this dream as well. Remember when we thought global adoption was right around the corner and some brick and mortar would soon accept bitcoin transaction as a common mean of payment? Well, some shop actually did accept payment and held. I had a few cases as such of shops holders, who made it to the multi million mark holding and had invoices or receipts to proof the transactions. If you are organized enough to keep a record for these trades and are willing to cooperate for the documentation, you are making your life easy. The digital advertising business is also a big market for the bitcoin industry, and affiliates partner compensated in btc are common. It is good to show an invoice, it is better to show a contract. If you do not have a contract (which is common since all advertising deals are about ticking a check box on the website to accept terms and conditions), there are ways around that. If you are in that case, pm me.
The black market Sorry guys, I can’t do much for you officially. Not that I am judging you. I am a libertarian myself. It’s just already very difficult to onboard legit btc adopters, so the black market is a market I cannot afford to consider. My company is regulated so KYC and compliance are key for me if I want to stay in business. Behind each case I push forward I am risking the credibility and reputation I have built over the years. So I am sorry guys I am not risking it to make an extra buck. Your best hope is that crypto will eventually take over the world and you won’t need to cash out anyway. Or go find a Lithuanian bank that is light on compliance and cooperative.
The OTC buyer and the libertarian. Generally a very difficult case. If you bought your stack during your journey in Japan 5 years ago to a guy you never met again; or if you accumulated on https://localbitcoins.com/ and kept no record or lost your account, it is going to be difficult. Not impossible but difficult. We will try to build a case with everything else we have, and I may be able to onboard you. However I am risking a lot here so I need to be 100% confident you are legit, before I defend you. Come & see me in Geneva, and we will talk. I will run forensic services like elliptic, chainalysis, or scorechain on an extract of your wallet. If this scan does not raise too many red flags, then maybe we can work together ! If you mixed your coins all along your crypto history, and shredded your seeds because you were paranoid, or if you made your wealth mining professionally monero over the last 3 years but never opened an account at an exchange. ¯_(ツ)_/¯ I am not a magician and don’t get me wrong, I love monero, it’s not the point.
Cashing out ICOs Private companies or foundations who have ran an ICO generally have a very hard time opening a bank account. The few banks that accept such projects would generally look at 4 criteria:
*Seriousness of the project Extensive study of the whitepaper to limit the reputation risk
*AML of the onboarding process ICOs 1.0 have no chance basically if a background check of the investors has not been conducted
*Structure of the moral entity List of signatories, certificate of incumbency, work contract, premises...
*Fiscal conformity Did the company informed the authorities and seek a fiscal ruling.
For the record, I am not into the tax avoidance business, so people come to me with a set up and I see if I can make it work within the legal framework imposed to me.
First, stop thinking Switzerland is a “offshore heaven” Swiss banks have made deals with many governments for the exchange of fiscal information. If you are a French citizen, resident in France and want to open an account in a Private Bank in Switzerland to cash out your bitcoins, you will get slaughtered (>60%). There are ways around that, and I could refer you to good tax specialists for fiscal optimization, but I cannot organize it myself. It would be illegal for me. Swiss private banks makes it easy for you to keep a good your relation with your retail bank and continue paying your bills without headaches. They are integrated to SEPA, provide ebanking and credit cards.
For information, these are the kind of set up some of my clients came up with. It’s all legal; obviously I do not onboard clients that are not tax compliant. Further disclaimer: I did not contribute myself to these set up. Do not ask me to organize it for you. I won’t.
EU tricks
Swiss lump sum taxation Foreign nationals resident in Switzerland can be taxed on a lump-sum basis if they are not gainfully employed in our country. Under the lump-sum tax regime, foreign nationals taking residence in Switzerland may choose to pay an expense-based tax instead of ordinary income and wealth tax. Attractive cantons for the lump sum taxation are Zug, Vaud, Valais, Grisons, Lucerne and Berne. To make it short, you will be paying somewhere between 200 and 400k a year and all expenses will be deductible.
Switzerland has adopted a very friendly attitude towards crypto currency in general. There is a whole crypto valley in Zug now. 30% of ICOs are operated in Switzerland. The reason is that Switzerland has thrived for centuries on banking secrecy, and today with FATCA and exchange of fiscal info with EU, banking secrecy is dead. Regulators in Switzerland have understood that digital ledger technologies were a way to roll over this competitive advantage for the generations to come. Switzerland does not tax capital gains on crypto profits. The Finma has a very pragmatic approach. They have issued guidance- updated guidelines here. They let the business get organized and operate their analysis on a case per case basis. Only after getting a deep understanding of the market will they issue a global fintech license in 2019. This approach is much more realistic than legislations which try to regulate everything beforehand.
Italy new tax exemption. It’s a brand new fiscal exemption. Go to Aoste, get residency and you could be taxed a 100k/year for 10years. Yes, really.
Portugal What’s crazy in Europe is the lack of fiscal harmonization. Even if no one in Brussels dares admit it, every other country is doing fiscal dumping. Portugal is such a country and has proved very friendly fiscally speaking. I personally have a hard time trusting Europe. I have witnessed what happened in Greece over the last few years. Some of our ultra high net worth clients got stuck with capital controls. I mean no way you got out of crypto to have your funds confiscated at the next financial crisis! Anyway. FYI
Malta Generally speaking, if you get a residence somewhere you have to live there for a certain period of time. Being stuck in Italy is no big deal with Schengen Agreement, but in Malta it is a different story. In Malta, the ordinary residence scheme is more attractive than the HNWI residence scheme. Being an individual, you can hold a residence permit under this scheme and pay zero income tax in Malta in a completely legal way.
Monaco Not suitable for French citizens, but for other Ultra High Net worth individual, Monaco is worth considering. You need an account at a local bank as a proof of fortune, and this account generally has to be seeded with at least EUR500k. You also need a proof of residence. I do mean UHNI because if you don’t cash out minimum 30m it’s not interesting. Everything is expensive in Monaco. Real Estate is EUR 50k per square meter. A breakfast at Monte Carlo Bay hotel is 70 EUR. Monaco is sunny but sometimes it feels like a golden jail. Do you really want that for your kids?
Dubaï
  1. Set up a company in Dubaï, get your resident card.
  2. Spend one day every 6 month there
  3. ???
  4. Be tax free
US tricks Some Private banks in Geneva do have the license to manage the assets of US persons and U.S citizens. However, do not think it is a way to avoid paying taxes in the US. Opening an account at an authorized Swiss Private banks is literally the same tax-wise as opening an account at Fidelity or at Bank of America in the US. The only difference is that you will avoid all the horror stories. Horror stories are all real by the way. In Switzerland, if you build a decent case and answer all the questions and corroborate your case in depth, you will manage to convince compliance officers beforehand. When the money eventually hits your account, it is actually available and not frozen.
The IRS and FATCA require to file FBAR if an offshore account is open. However FBAR is a reporting requirement and does not have taxes related to holding an account outside the US. The taxes would be the same if the account was in the US. However penalties for non compliance with FBAR are very large. The tax liability management is actually performed through the management of the assets ( for exemple by maximizing long term capital gains and minimizing short term gains).
The case for Porto Rico. Full disclaimer here. I am not encouraging this. Have not collaborated on such tax avoidance schemes. if you are interested I strongly encourage you to seek a tax advisor and get a legal opinion. I am not responsible for anything written below. I am not going to say much because I am so afraid of uncle Sam that I prefer to humbly pass the hot potato to pwc From here all it takes is a good advisor and some creativity to be tax free on your crypto wealth if you are a US person apparently. Please, please please don’t ask me more. And read the disclaimer again.
Trust tricks Generally speaking I do not accept fringe fiscal situation because it puts me in a difficult situation to the banks I work with, and it is already difficult enough to defend a legit crypto case. Trust might be a way to optimize your fiscal situation. Belize. Bahamas. Seychelles. Panama, You name it. At the end of the day, what matters for Swiss Banks are the beneficial owner and the settlor. Get a legal opinion, get it done, and when you eventually knock at a private bank’s door, don’t say it was for fiscal avoidance you stupid ! You will get the door smashed upon you. Be smarter. It will work. My advice is just to have it done by a great tax specialist lawyer, even if it costs you some money, as the entity itself needs to be structured in a professional way. Remember that with trust you are dispossessing yourself off your wealth. Not something to be taken lightly.
“Anonymous” cash out. Right. I think I am not going into this topic, neither expose the ways to get it done. Pm me for details. I already feel a bit uncomfortable with all the info I have provided. I am just going to mention many people fear that crypto exchange might become reporting entities soon, and rightly so. This might happen anyday. You have been warned. FYI, this only works for non-US and large cash out.
The difference between traders an investors. Danmark, Holland and Germany all make a huge difference if you are a passive investor or if you are a trader. ICO is considered investing for instance and is not taxed, while trading might be considered as income and charged aggressively. I would try my best to protect you and put a focus on your investor profile whenever possible, so you don't have to pay 52% tax if you do not have to :D
Full cash out or partial cash out? People who have been sitting on crypto for long have grown an emotional and irrational link with their coins. They come to me and say, look, I have 50m in crypto but I would like to cash out 500k only. So first let me tell you that as a wealth manager my advice to you is to take some off the table. Doing a partial cash out is absolutely fine. The market is bullish. We are witnessing a redistribution of wealth at a global scale. Bitcoin is the real #occupywallstreet, and every one will discuss crypto at Xmas eve which will make the market even more supportive beginning 2018, especially with all hedge funds entering the scene. If you want to stay exposed to bitcoin and altcoins, and believe these techs will change the world, it’s just natural you want to keep some coins. In the meantime, if you have lived off pizzas over the last years, and have the means to now buy yourself an nice house and have an account at a private bank, then f***ing do it mate ! Buy physical gold with this account, buy real estate, have some cash at hands. Even though US dollar is worthless to your eyes, it’s good and convenient to have some. Also remember your wife deserves it ! And if you have no wife yet and you are socially awkward like the rest of us, then maybe cashing out partially will help your situation ;)
What the Private Banks expect. Joke aside, it is important you understand something. If you come around in Zurich to open a bank account and partially cash out, just don’t expect Private Banks will make an exception for you if you are small. You can’t ask them to facilitate your cash out, buy a 1m apartment with the proceeds of the sale, and not leave anything on your current account. It won’t work. Sadly, under 5m you are considered small in private banking. The bank is ok to let you open an account, provided that your kyc and compliance file are validated, but they will also want you to become a client and leave some money there to invest. This might me despicable, but I am just explaining you their rules. If you want to cash out, you should sell enough to be comfortable and have some left. Also expect the account opening to last at least 3-4 week if everything goes well. You can't just open an account overnight.
The cash out logistics. Cashing out 1m USD a day in bitcoin or more is not so hard.
Let me just tell you this: Even if you get a Tier 4 account with Kraken and ask Alejandro there to raise your limit over $100k per day, Even if you have a bitfinex account and you are willing to expose your wealth there, Even if you have managed to pass all the crazy due diligence at Bitstamp,
The amount should be fractioned to avoid risking your full wealth on exchange and getting slaughtered on the price by trading big quantities. Cashing out involves significant risks at all time. There is a security risk of compromising your keys, a counterparty risk, a fat finger risk. Let it be done by professionals. It is worth every single penny.
Most importantly, there is a major difference between trading on an exchange and trading OTC. Even though it’s not publicly disclosed some exchange like Kraken do have OTC desks. Trading on an exchange for a large amount will weight on the prices. Bitcoin is a thin market. In my opinion over 30% of the coins are lost in translation forever. Selling $10m on an exchange in a day can weight on the prices more than you’d think. And if you trade on a exchange, everything is shown on record, and you might wipe out the prices because on exchanges like bitstamp or kraken ultimately your counterparties are retail investors and the market depth is not huge. It is a bit better on Bitfinex. It is way better to trade OTC. Accessing the institutional OTC market is not easy, and that is also the reason why you should ask a regulated financial intermediary if we are talking about huge amounts.
Last point, always chose EUR as opposed to USD. EU correspondent banks won’t generally block institutional amounts. However we had the cases of USD funds frozen or delayed by weeks.
Most well-known OTC desks are Cumberlandmining (ask for Lucas), Genesis (ask for Martin), Bitcoin Suisse AG (ask for Niklas), circletrade, B2C2, or Altcoinomy (ask for Olivier)
Very very large whales can also set up escrow accounts for massive block trades. This world, where blocks over 30k BTC are exchanged between 2 parties would deserve a reddit thread of its own. Crazyness all around.
Your options: DIY or going through a regulated financial intermediary.
Execution trading is a job in itself. You have to be patient, be careful not to wipe out the order book and place limit orders, monitor the market intraday for spikes or opportunities. At big levels, for a large cash out that may take weeks, these kind of details will save you hundred thousands of dollars. I understand crypto holders are suspicious and may prefer to do it by themselves, but there are regulated entities who now offer the services. Besides, being a crypto millionaire is not a guarantee you will get institutional daily withdrawal limits at exchange. You might, but it will take you another round of KYC with them, and surprisingly this round might be even more aggressive that the ones at Private banks since exchange have gone under intense scrutiny by regulators lately.
The fees for cashing out through a regulated financial intermediary to help you with your cash out should be around 1-2% flat on the nominal, not more. And for this price you should get the full package: execution/monitoring of the trades AND onboarding in a private bank. If you are asked more, you are being abused.
Of course, you also have the option to do it yourself. It is a way more tedious and risky process. Compliance with the exchange, compliance with the private bank, trading BTC/fiat, monitoring the transfers…You will save some money but it will take you some time and stress. Further, if you approach a private bank directly, it will trigger a series of red flag to the banks. As I said in my previous post, they call a direct approach a “walk-in”. They will be more suspicious than if you were introduced by someone and won’t hesitate to show you high fees and load your portfolio with in-house products that earn more money to the banks than to you. Remember also most banks still do not understand crypto so you will have a lot of explanations to provide and you will have to start form scratch with them!
The paradox of crypto millionaires Most of my clients who made their wealth through crypto all took massive amount of risks to end up where they are. However, most of them want their bank account to be managed with a low volatility fixed income capital preservation risk profile. This is a paradox I have a hard time to explain and I think it is mainly due to the fact that most are distrustful towards banks and financial markets in general. Many clients who have sold their crypto also have a cash-out blues in the first few months. This is a classic situation. The emotions involved in hodling for so long, the relief that everything has eventually gone well, the life-changing dynamics, the difficulties to find a new motivation in life…All these elements may trigger a post cash-out depression. It is another paradox of the crypto rich who has every card in his hand to be happy, but often feel a bit sad and lonely. Sometimes, even though it’s not my job, I had to do some psychological support. A lot of clients have also become my friends, because we have the same age and went through the same “ordeal”. First world problem I know… Remember, cashing out is not the end. It’s actually the beginning. Don’t look back, don’t regret. Cash out partially, because it does not make sense to cash out in full, regret it and want back in. relax.
The race to cash out crypto billionaire and the concept of late exiter. The Winklevoss brothers are obviously the first of a series. There will be crypto billionaires. Many of them. At a certain level you can have a whole family office working for you to manage your assets and take care of your needs . However, let me tell you it’s is not because you made it so big that you should think you are a genius and know everything better than anyone. You should hire professionals to help you. Managing assets require some education around the investment vehicles and risk management strategies. Sorry guys but with all the respect I have for wallstreebet, AMD and YOLO stock picking, some discipline is necessary. The investors who have made money through crypto are generally early adopters. However I have started to see another profile popping up. They are not early adopters. They are late exiters. It is another way but just as efficient. Last week I met the first crypto millionaire I know who first bough bitcoin over 1000$. 55k invested at the beginning of this year. Late adopter & late exiter is a route that can lead to the million.
Last remarks. I know banks, bankers, and FIAT currencies are so last century. I know some of you despise them and would like to have them burn to the ground. With compliance officers taking over the business, I would like to start the fire myself sometimes. I hope this extensive guide has helped some of you. I am around if you need more details. I love my job despite all my frustration towards the banking industry because it makes me meet interesting people on a daily basis. I am a crypto enthusiast myself, and I do think this tech is here to stay and will change the world. Banks will have to adapt big time. Things have started to change already; they understand the threat is real. I can feel the generational gap in Geneva, with all these old bankers who don’t get what’s going on. They glaze at the bitcoin chart on CNBC in disbelief and they start to get it. This bitcoin thing is not a joke. Deep inside, as an early adopter who also intends to be a late exiter, as a libertarian myself, it makes me smile with satisfaction.
Cheers. @swisspb on telegram
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Looking back 18 months.

I was going through old emails today and came across this one I sent out to family on January 4, 2018. It was a reflection on the 2017 crypto bull market and where I saw it heading, as well as some general advice on crypto, investment, and being safe about how you handle yourself in cryptoland.
I feel that we are on the cusp of a new bull market right now, so I thought that I would put this out for at least a few people to see *before* the next bull run, not after. While the details have changed, I don't see a thing in this email that I fundamentally wouldn't say again, although I'd also probably insist that people get a Yubikey and use that for all 2FA where it is supported.
Happy reading, and sorry for some of the formatting weirdness -- I cleaned it up pretty well from the original email formatting, but I love lists and indents and Reddit has limitations... :-/
Also, don't laught at my token picks from January 2018! It was a long time ago and (luckliy) I took my own advice about moving a bunch into USD shortly after I sent this. I didn't hit the top, and I came back in too early in the summer of 2018, but I got lucky in many respects.
----------------------------------------------------------------------- Jan-4, 2018
Hey all!
I woke up this morning to ETH at a solid $1000 and decided to put some thoughts together on what I think crypto has done and what I think it will do. *******, if you could share this to your kids I’d appreciate it -- I don’t have e-mail addresses, and it’s a bit unwieldy for FB Messenger… Hopefully they’ll at least find it thought-provoking. If not, they can use it as further evidence that I’m a nutjob. 😉
Some history before I head into the future.
I first mined some BTC in 2011 or 2012 (Can’t remember exactly, but it was around the Christmas holidays when I started because I had time off from work to get it set up and running.) I kept it up through the start of summer in 2012, but stopped because it made my PC run hot and as it was no longer winter, ********** didn’t appreciate the sound of the fans blowing that hot air into the room any more. I’ve always said that the first BTC I mined was at $1, but looking back at it now, that’s not true – It was around $2. Here’s a link to BTC price history.
In the summer of 2013 I got a new PC and moved my programs and files over before scrapping the old one. I hadn’t touched my BTC mining folder for a year then, and I didn’t even think about salvaging those wallet files. They are now gone forever, including the 9-10BTC that were in them. While I can intellectually justify the loss, it was sloppy and underlines a key thing about cryptocurrency that I believe will limit its widespread adoption by the general public until it is addressed and solved: In cryptoland, you are your own bank, and if you lose your password or account number, there is no person or organization that can help you reset it so that you can get access back. Your money is gone forever.
On April 12, 2014 I bought my first BTC through Coinbase. BTC had spiked to $1000 and been in the news, at least in Japan. This made me remember my old wallet and freak out for a couple of months trying to find it and reclaim the coins. I then FOMO’d (Fear Of Missing Out”) and bought $100 worth of BTC. I was actually very lucky in my timing and bought at around $430. Even so, except for a brief 50% swing up almost immediately afterwards that made me check prices 5 times a day, BTC fell below my purchase price by the end of September and I didn’t get back to even until the end of 2015.
In May 2015 I bought my first ETH at around $1. I sent some guy on bitcointalk ~$100 worth of BTC and he sent me 100 ETH – all on trust because the amounts were small and this was a small group of people. BTC was down in the $250 range at that point, so I had lost 30-40% of my initial investment. This was of the $100 invested, so not that much in real terms, but huge in percentages. It also meant that I had to buy another $100 of BTC on Coinbase to send to this guy. A few months after I purchased my ETH, BTC had doubled and ETH had gone down to $0.50, halving the value of my ETH holdings. I was even on the first BTC purchase finally, but was now down 50% on the ETH I had bought.
The good news was that this made me start to look at things more seriously. Where I had skimmed white papers and gotten a superficial understanding of the technology before FOMO’ing, I started to act as an investor, not a speculator. Let me define how I see those two different types of activity:
So what has been my experience as an investor? After sitting out the rest of 2015 because I needed to understand the market better, I bought into ETH quite heavily, with my initial big purchases being in March-April of 2016. Those purchases were in the $11-$14 range. ETH, of course, dropped immediately to under $10, then came back and bounced around my purchase range for a while until December of 2016, when I purchased a lot more at around $8.
I also purchased my first ICO in August of 2016, HEAT. I bought 25ETH worth. Those tokens are now worth about half of their ICO price, so about 12.5ETH or $12500 instead of the $25000 they would be worth if I had just kept ETH. There are some other things with HEAT that mean I’ve done quite a bit better than those numbers would suggest, but the fact is that the single best thing I could have done is to hold ETH and not spend the effort/time/cost of working with HEAT. That holds true for about every top-25 token on the market when compared to ETH. It certainly holds true for the many, many tokens I tried to trade in Q1-Q2 of 2017. In almost every single case I would have done better and slept better had I just held ETH instead of trying to be smarter than Mr. Market.
But, I made money on all of them except one because the crypto market went up more in USD terms than any individual coin went down in ETH or BTC terms. This underlines something that I read somewhere and that I take to heart: A rising market makes everyone seem like a genius. A monkey throwing darts at a list of the top 100 cryptocurrencies last year would have doubled his money. Here’s a chart from September that shows 2017 year-to-date returns for the top 10 cryptocurrencies, and all of them went up a *lot* more between then and December. A monkey throwing darts at this list there would have quintupled his money.
When evaluating performance, then, you have to beat the monkey, and preferably you should try to beat a Wall Street monkey. I couldn’t, so I stopped trying around July 2017. My benchmark was the BLX, a DAA (Digital Asset Array – think fund like a Fidelity fund) created by ICONOMI. I wasn’t even close to beating the BLX returns, so I did several things.
  1. I went from holding about 25 different tokens to holding 10 now. More on that in a bit.
  2. I used those funds to buy ETH and BLX. ETH has done crazy-good since then and BLX has beaten BTC handily, although it hasn’t done as well as ETH.
  3. I used some of those funds to set up an arbitrage operation.
The arbitrage operation is why I kept the 11 tokens that I have now. All but a couple are used in an ETH/token pair for arbitrage, and each one of them except for one special case is part of BLX. Why did I do that? I did that because ICONOMI did a better job of picking long-term holds than I did, and in arbitrage the only speculative thing you must do is pick the pairs to trade. My pairs are (No particular order):
I also hold PLU, PLBT, and ART. These two are multi-year holds for me. I have not purchased BTC once since my initial $200, except for a few cases where BTC was the only way to go to/from an altcoin that didn’t trade against ETH yet. Right now I hold about the same 0.3BTC that I held after my first $100 purchase, so I don’t really count it.
Looking forward to this year, I am positioning myself as follows:
Looking at my notes, I have two other things that I wanted to work into this email that I didn’t get to, so here they are:
  1. Just like with free apps and other software, if you are getting something of value and you didn’t pay anything for it, you need to ask why this is. With apps, the phrase is “If you didn’t pay for the product, you are the product”, and this works for things such as pump groups, tips, and even technical analysis. Here’s how I see it.
    1. People don’t give tips on stocks or crypto that they don’t already own that stock or token. Why would they, since if they convince anyone to buy it, the price only goes up as a result, making it more expensive for them to buy in? Sure, you will have friends and family that may do this, but people in a crypto club, your local cryptocurrency meetup, or online are generally not your friends. They are there to make money, and if they can get you to help them make money, they will do it. Pump groups are the worst of these, and no matter how enticing it may look, stay as far away as possible from these scams. I even go so far as to report them when I see them advertise on FB or Twitter, because they are violating the terms of use.
    2. Technical analysis (TA) is something that has been argued about for longer than I’ve been alive, but I think that it falls into the same boat. In short, TA argues that there are patterns in trading that can be read and acted upon to signal when one must buy or sell. It has been used forever in the stock and foreign exchange markets, and people use it in crypto as well. Let’s break down these assumptions a bit.
i. First, if crypto were like the stock or forex markets we’d all be happy with 5-7% gains per year rather than easily seeing that in a day. For TA to work the same way in crypto as it does in stocks and foreign exchange, the signals would have to be *much* stronger and faster-reacting than they work in the traditional market, but people use them in exactly the same way.
ii. Another area where crypto is very different than the stock and forex markets centers around market efficiency theory. This theory says that markets are efficient and that the price reflects all the available information at any given time. This is why gold in New York is similar in price to gold in London or Shanghai, and why arbitrage margins are easily <0.1% in those markets compared to cryptoland where I can easily get 10x that. Crypto simply has too much speculation and not enough professional traders in it yet to operate as an efficient market. That fundamentally changes the way that the market behaves and should make any TA patterns from traditional markets irrelevant in crypto.
iii. There are services, both free and paid that claim to put out signals based on TA for when one should buy and sell. If you think for even a second that they are not front-running (Placing orders ahead of yours to profit.) you and the other people using the service, you’re naïve.
iv. Likewise, if you don’t think that there are people that have but together computerized systems to get ahead of people doing manual TA, you’re naïve. The guys that I have programming my arbitrage bots have offered to build me a TA bot and set up a service to sell signals once our position is taken. I said no, but I am sure that they will do it themselves or sell that to someone else. Basically they look at TA as a tip machine where when a certain pattern is seen, people act on that “tip”. They use software to see that “tip” faster and take a position on it so that when slower participants come in they either have to sell lower or buy higher than the TA bot did. Remember, if you are getting a tip for free, you’re the product. In TA I see a system when people are all acting on free preset “tips” and getting played by the more sophisticated market participants. Again, you have to beat that Wall Street monkey.
  1. If you still don’t agree that TA is bogus, think about it this way: If TA was real, Wall Street would have figured it out decades ago and we would have TA funds that would be beating the market. We don’t.
  2. If you still don’t agree that TA is bogus and that its real and well, proven, then you must think that all smart traders use them. Now follow that logic forward and think about what would happen if every smart trader pushing big money followed TA. The signals would only last for a split second and would then be overwhelmed by people acting on them, making them impossible to leverage. This is essentially what the efficient market theory postulates for all information, including TA.
OK, the one last item. Read this weekly newsletter – You can sign up at the bottom. It is free, so they’re selling something, right? 😉 From what I can tell, though, Evan is a straight-up guy who posts links and almost zero editorial comments.
Happy 2018.
submitted by uetani to CryptoCurrency [link] [comments]

Clearing up some confusion about cryptocurrencies, mining and when prices will go down.

I spend my last 6 months in a lot of cryptocurrency Reddits and informed myself about the topic. I read a lot of misinformation in the non crypto Reddits every day and because of that I am making this post to clear some things up and explain everything. Sorry for the wall of text, there will be a tldr; at the end
The Ethereum network pays out people who mine for them in Ethereum. The total daily amount of Ethereum giving out is more or less constant for now which means that if only a single person mines he gets everything, if a million person mine with the same hash power behind them everyone gets 1/1,000,000 of the reward, the reward itself does NOT increase, only the price of the ETH can increase.
Normally people would buy more GPUs until they reach a point of only a small profit compared to the energy costs and it would a reach a point of balance between total network hashrate and profit in USD (like it was in the last 3-4 years). The problem is that the price spiked multiple times way too fast and GPU manufacturing can't keep up which causes GPU prices to spike and delays this point of balance which results in MASSIVE profits for everyone who mines because the hashing power "supply" is capped. We are talking about 100$ a month with a SINGLE RX 480 right now (80$+ with power cost included).
Actually quite soon (yay). This is sadly a truth that not many miners know of (not to mention some are delusional... you will find them in the comments) and very few people think about. Even the popular Youtube channels have no idea about this. Before I come to the end of GPU mining first there are some numbers.
The current network hashrate is about 191TH/s and a total daily reward paid of 31,239,969$ in the last 24 hours. Because a single RX 480 gets about 28MH/s (pretty much average), we have about 6,821,428 GPUs mining ONLY Ethereum right now. If you every wondered how much money you need for a global GPU shortage the answer is about 30 million dollar daily.
Ok ok... the thing is the Ethereum network doesn't need your GPU power. It only uses it as a spam filter to make it harder to manipulate the network. You would need over 50% of the total hashrate to reliably fake transactions, think of it as a giant google captcha. You can easily replace that captcha with another one and this is exactly what Ethereum does in the near future. Proof of stake means instead of wasting GPU power you just stake your Ethereum and the more of your Ethereum you invest the more voting rights and rewards you get. If you are caught trying to cheat your whole money gets confiscated and donated to everyone else depending on their voting rights. Full proof of stake will probably be implemented late 2018 but just to be fair it already got delayed multiple times so there is no clear 100% date for it yet.
This is where the misconception starts. There is actually a second point of balance in all of this. All cryptocurrencies will always divide all the hashing power between them until they all reach about the same profit (people always switch to what gives the most profit). It may seem like there are a lot of profitable cryptocurrencies to mine but that is actually an illusion. Many of the smaller coins would be unprofitable after a few thousand GPUs because their total $ reward giving out daily is pretty small. The thing is nobody mines something that gives less profit so they switch. To sum it up Ethereum is basically the minimum payment job and everyone who goes below that wont find anyone willing to do the job until they get more profitable than Ethereum.
Now what happens if 6.8 MILLION RX 480 are jobless after a single update? They will all start mining something else. The problem is Ethereum has a GIANT majority in hashrate and all other mineable cryptocurrencies combined can't be profitable after Ethereum switches even if their prices spike by 10x.
OH HELL YEAH IT IS THAT BAD! Every heard of Monero? It is the cryptocurrency that caused the RX Vega shortage. Any idea on how much daily rewards they give out? A giant 1,504,249$ in the last 24 hours. Yes that is 20.7 times less and we are talking about the second biggest mineable coin out there. As soon as Ethereum fires all the miners everything will collapse and profit will turn NEGATIVE for a while unless you have free power. Q4 2018 is the end of mining for probably ever. Because the Ethereum code is open source and everyone can use it there will most likely be more coins that follow proof of stake after that (there already are some that already have it) so mining will most likely never come back.
There are many benefits. It consumes A LOT less power, it is most likely faster and people who hodl Ethereum get more Ethereum for just having it. Free interest rate hype! But the most important thing about this is that miners control the currency and every update to it. Sadly they don't have the same interests as people who want the crypto to succeed and improve. For example Bitcoin's block size is kept at 1mb even though increasing it was always the plan since 2009. Why? It's very simple. You can only fit X amount of transactions in 1mb and if it gets more than that only people who pay more get their transactions in faster which means more fews are being paid to the miners. While they make a fortune the currency suffers with spikes to 50$ for a SINGLE transaction (currently it's 18$). If the power goes to the ones having the currency they are directly interested in the well being of the currency which is better for everyone.
We will get the biggest GPU mass sell off in the history of the technology itself. I wouldn't be surprised to find a RX 480 for 100$ in December. Miners already made the price of the GPU back multiple times, they don't care about the price if they get at least something. This will be a GREAT time for buying GPUs. It already happened once in 2013? when ASIC miners got introduced for Bitcoin mining and all R9 290(x) got dumped on the market because they went from awesome miners to completely useless overnight. This time will be much bigger though because of the sheer amount of GPUs used for mining.
AMD did ramp up production last time with the r9 290(x) and got completely rekt. They couldn't sell the GPUs anymore and the used r9 290(x) were way too cheap to compete with. This time they are smarter and they just make as much as they can without investing too much while basically selling everything they produce for almost a whole year. Nvidia is about the same right now, they are just making bank without risking much. If you ever wondered why the 1070ti exists, it is basically a mining only GPU. The 1080 is horrible for Ethereum mining because of GDDR5X timings but the 1070ti has the same GPU power with GDDR5 non x. They only made this for more profit when selling to miners.... yet no reviewer called them out for this to my knowledge.
GPU prices will crash hard and the used market will have laughable low prices. These GPUs actually run undervolted, underclocked and at a low temperature the whole time because the bottleneck is the memory speed which means they are in EXCELLENT condition. Maybe their BIOS got flashed for better memory timing but you can just switch to the second BIOS or flash it back to normals. These will the GREAT to buy. Note that r9 290(x) and 390(x) GPUs should be avoided because they have such an overkill memory setup that their GPU core is the bottleneck (-> overclocked, overvolted and run at 90c+).
Well they will have a problem. Nobody will buy a 1180 if they can get a GTX 1080 for 200$ compared to something like 600$. Especially if Nvidia releases the 1180 while mining is still a thing. I guess they will wait with the 1180 or release a 1280 shortly after mining died with a really competitive price (if AMD can't compete they will just compete with themself...). Just think of the GTX 970 which got released with a 299$ MSRP and got actually sold at that price!
This got way longer than expected... well I hope you learned something. Just comment if you want to correct something or have a question. Most of these are assumptions based on thinking so none of this has to happen but is in my opinion very likely to happen.
tldr; Because Ethereum has almost all of the GPU power behind it and will fire all the miners in around Q4 2018 with the switch to proof of stake there will be a huge excess of GPU power and prices will crash hard.
edit: if you only care about numbers and facts and want a better distinction between assumptions and facts read my other comment https://www.reddit.com/pcmasterrace/comments/7rqkmo/clearing_up_some_confusion_about_cryptocurrencies/dsyzg6b/
submitted by Karavusk to pcmasterrace [link] [comments]

/r/Bitcoin FAQ - Newcomers please read

This posts explains some dos and don'ts about what to post on /Bitcoin .
First lets start with...
Messaging mods
Modmail is for:
Modmail is not for:
Frequent requests:
Submissions
Please don't post:
Take heed when posting:
  • Memes - memes are allowed, but some people may not like you for posting them. Be sure to use /Bitcoinmemes as well
  • Information about all-time-highs, price spikes, crashes and so forth - 90% of the time, someone has already posted about it. Check /bitcoin/new first before posting.
  • Questions about help with a particular website or business - /Bitcoin is not tech support for any business, you're better off contacting the support of the business in question through their forums or ticket system
What to do if you see...
  • Spam - click "report" underneath the submission, vote accordingly. Don't message mods unless the spam is subtle or needs context
  • Repost - vote accordingly, click "report"
  • A post from the "don't" list above - direct the posted to a proper subreddit if applicable (for questions and newbie posts), vote and report accordingly otherwise
  • A post that is allowed on this subreddit but you don't like it being here - vote accordingly, don't report it. If it is allowed, the mods will not remove the post. Your votes shape what submissions get the most exposure - upvote the posts you want to see more of, downvote the ones you want to see less of.
Some good guides you should look into:
Please do
  • Read the sidebar for community rules - following them will make everyone's day better.
  • Be sceptical of any news without credible sources - a lot of bad people are trying to play on your emotions by fabricating fake stories. Be sceptical of any story without a credible citation, especially when it is related to economic or legal side of things.
Thank you for your attention. Post responsibly, vote on all submissions, live and let live, have fun.
submitted by ThePiachu to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

Bitcoin mining as a form of energy storage?

I had an idea but I'm certain that there are pitfalls that I'm not seeing. What I'm wondering is if bitcoin could be used as a form of "energy storage" to give balance to the grid when renewable energy production spikes. I live in Ontario, Canada, and we often produce too much electricity and end up paying to dump excess electricity What would prevent a grid operator from setting up a bitcoin mining operation that generates revenue when too much electricity is being produced? I know that there is a significant cost in keeping miners up to date, but if the cost of the electricity is $0, would it not be profitable? I see it as being a form of energy storage in that you are converting excess electricity into currency which could potentially be used to buy energy when it's needed.
submitted by chendiggler to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

What's Holding Bitcoin Back

I've previously posted some of my writings here and garnered a positive response. Since then I've abandoned steemit and created a dedicated website dubbed graspbitcoin.tech that ventures to explain how bitcoin will change the world. Included below is the full text of the 3rd article in this series, but there are already a number of other post on my site that go further. This information is geared towards the general public and may seem largely like review to this community.

What’s Holding Bitcoin Back

Money should be a good store of value, medium of exchange, and unit of account. There are a lot of barriers preventing bitcoin’s widespread use by the aforementioned criteria, let’s take a look and see how they might be solved.

Lack of Understanding

Bitcoin is complicated and unfamiliar. This is a huge barrier to entry because people distrust what they don’t understand, and ease-of-use and simplicity is what usually sells a new technology. If you have read this series from the beginning though, you may now see some potential upsides to such a drastically different system than what we are used to. Many resisted smartphones for a time (and a few still do). The benefits have to outweigh the costs of adoption, so we may see niche cases being the early adopters (like citizens of Venezuela or remittances payments). Also, when a new complicated technology rolls around, it sometimes takes a generation before it becomes widespread; young people are particularly adept at adopting new tech.

Volatility

The tendency of bitcoin’s price to change rapidly or unpredictably is what comprises volatility.
When you search for bitcoin you may find that most of the results you get (and the discussions happening on forums) are about it’s price. This is understandable, it has seen some crazy moves both up and down over the years facilitating the potential for huge gains (and huge losses). Still, over time the price certainly is increasing. Unless you bought in a single 2 month period in 2013, holding bitcoin for longer than 2 years at any point in its history would land you in a better position than when you started. And, when viewed on a logarithmic scale (used in long-term stock charts), the trend is quite clear:
(Bitcoin Price 2012-2018, Logarithmic Scale (bitcoincharts.com))
There is a risk/reward to adopting new tech, and this is no exception. But, my goal is absolutely not to “sell” it to you as an investment by any means.

This is not financial advice. We’re simply looking at the pros and cons of this space, and I encourage everyone to do their own research and come to their own conclusions. Never invest anything you aren’t prepared to lose.

This meteoric rising (and crashing) of the “price” (which, I’ll point out, might just as well be considered an exchange rate) understandably makes it pretty difficult to use bitcoin as a currency. If it moves a few percent in a day, and can move a few hundred percent in a month, purchasing a car or a house could cost you significantly more by the time your finished closing. That’s just not viable, and certainly not a good unit of account.
However, I see the volatility in price simply as growing pains. It is the market that dictates the price of bitcoin, quite literally, it’s traded like a stock. This is referred to as speculation (“the purchase of an asset with the hope that it will become more valuable at a future date”). Speculation happens between national currencies already, but they are generally stable in comparison so it’s not lucrative. People are unsure of how this whole bitcoin thing is going to play out. It’s not like anything we’ve ever seen, it’s difficult to understand (and use), and it’s not accepted at every corner store or online business. Many in the space are just here for a quick buck, and they sell it when the price rises to get back “real” money we are used to, that is “stable” in price against other currencies, and can predictably buy goods and services.
The way I see it, all of these will concerns diminish in time.
Though Amazon or Target don’t yet accept bitcoin, Microsoft and Overstock.com do. Some cities and towns across the world are embracing it a lot more than others. It’s not surprising to see San Francisco accommodating the new technology. But, other cities like Portsmouth in New Hampshire with numerous cafes and shops accepting bitcoin (and “Dash coin”) might surprise you. There are maps available to see where crypto-currencies are accepted at locations near you, and the amount of them are increasing, albeit slowly. It’s a bit of a chicken-and-egg situation, but that hasn’t stopped revolutions from happening before.
Consider when cars first came about, roads were dirt and mud which cars didn’t do well with. It took building massive infrastructure before cars could ever become mass-adopted, but we spent the time, money, and effort because we saw the potential advantages. It will be trivial for businesses to accept bitcoin compared with pouring hundreds of millions of dollars in asphalt to connect our world. Other parallels include train tracks, phone lines, electricity lines, communication satellites, etc. Each of these replaced or iterated on previous functional technologies, and required massive upfront costs before the benefits were available. It’s clear now that we made some good choices there but there were doubts at the time.
Despite some pretty major setbacks, bitcoin’s trend is up. Interest is growing and more businesses and individuals are actually using it. But due to the trading mentality, the uncertainty with regulations, uncertainty in the technology itself, uncertainty that the price will not drop, and other factors, emotion and greed encourages people to sell in flocks if the price climbs high enough.
Furthermore, right now with a large enough stack of money one can influence this market in drastic ways, and cries of manipulation of the price are not unfounded. So-called “whales” can buy and sell huge amounts of coins and the price can jump a bit each time. Coupled with uncertainty in the space, and so many “investors” trying to time the markets, we end up with a pretty volatile landscape where the price is not stable. My argument is that this is diminishing as it gains in popularity, and it is gaining value because its utility is growing (see the network effect”) and the utility itself is slowly becoming more apparent.

Volatility is actually decreasing.

Bitcoin Volatility Over Time(bitvol.info)
In the period from 2011 to 2014 bitcoin’s volatility often spikes into the 15% range. But from 2014 to the present, volatility has only just spiked above 7% twice, spending most of it’s time below 5%. Even the large boom and bust in price at the end of 2018 seems tame compared to the early years.
The trends show the price going up over time, and volatility going down. The more actual use the coin has (people saving and buying with bitcoin), the percentage of people entering the space to use it the way it was intended increases, the percentage of “stock traders” declines. And as more capital enters the space, the less influence whales have (because the current against which they swim is getting stronger). And as the price stabilizes, traders will become less interested.
There is a critical point where this becomes a negative feedback loop. I could be wrong, but the idea is at least founded in reality, and it would solve the unit of account issue if the price could stabilize to within a few percent per year.
Similarly, as a store of value, bitcoin becomes more viable in this scenario. This is coupled with the fact that although bitcoin is somewhat inflationary now as the supply is increasing (bitcoins are “discovered” as rewards for mined blocks), the amount of discovered coins are cut in half every few years. This “halving” is logarithmic, meaning eventually the amount of coins discovered is infinitesimally small, and total supply will asymptotically approach 21 million coins (the maximum supply that we will ever see).
This model of supply is actually meant to mimic gold because it’s a well-known store of value and monetary device throughout history (though it is not easily divisible, and not as portable as bitcoin). In both bitcoin and gold, mining is more fruitful in the beginning, and as we extract the low-hanging-fruit, mining requires greater effort and yields less return.
World population is increasing which leads to bitcoin becoming deflationary in the future if demand continues (the supply won’t increase beyond 21 million). And, I argue that it will become more valuable in time due to the network effect as bitcoin use becomes more widespread (the value of being able to exchange with more people anywhere, any time, and without permission from anyone).
This is a positive feedback loop, and shows how bitcoin is deflationary long-term. While deflation is generally considered negative by economists, the main reason is based around debt which isn’t possible in the same way with bitcoin because bitcoins cannot be created out of thin air like fiat currency.
The discussion of deflation vs inflation is an important one, and bitcoin’s monetary policy is an outlier compared with national currencies which are typically inflationary. The US dollar for example averaged 3% inflation since the year 1900. That means that over the last 100 years, a dollar has lost over 95% of its purchasing power. You could buy 95% more stuff with $1,000 last century, or, saving $1,000 from 100 years ago would buy you 95% less stuff at present. Put another way, purchasing power is cut in half after about 25 years, a concern for anyone retiring for over 20 years with a fixed retirement sum.
Some other national currencies have higher inflation rates, and there are numerous cases of inflationary spirals over the years. A few examples include Germany 1923, Hungary 1945, China 1947, Vietnam 1988, Peru 1990, Yugoslavia 1992, Zimbabwe 2008, and right now in Venezuela 2018. Entire countries of people have lost essentially all of their money, and it keeps happening over and over. A wise man would tell you it’s dangerous to say “it could never happen here”.
*UPDATE: Turkey is also now in financial crisis. This is our money with which we hold and exchange value, our earnings, our savings, our livelihoods. Maybe it’s time we had, at least, another option outside of government control. An option that governments can’t destroy through mismanagement. A neutral option that ignores all borders, is open to everyone, and can be accessed anytime from anywhere.

The Fear of “Hacks”

It’s a very real threat to have all your money stolen, if your bank was robbed you are protected by FDIC (in most cases only up to $100,000). The vast majority of coins that have been stolen have come from hackers attacking “exchanges” and getting away with millions. These exchanges are websites where you can trade bitcoin for other crypto-currencies (or “alt-coins”). You can also buy and sell bitcoin on them, and subsequently people end up storing a lot of coins on these exchanges, and the exchanges hold the “private keys” so they can execute trades.
Cryptographic private keys are analogous to a key that opens a door, or, a key that locks a message in a box before it is sent to the recipient. In our case the door opened allows you to sign your message and spend coins, and the message is your transaction on the bitcoin network. Anyone with your private keys can spend your coins. Exchanges are a honey pot of thousands of private keys that represent a lot of money. If a hacker can break into the exchange and steal the keys all at once, their work will pay off.
This is why any crypto guru will advise you not to store large amounts of coins on exchanges, and rather transfer them in your own wallets where you hold the private keys. The mantra is “your keys, your money; not your keys, NOT YOUR MONEY!” Of course your own computer can be hacked, but you are not as big a target as an exchange which may hold vast sums of money. There are also some pretty safe ways to store your coins if done right.
Centralized exchanges are a necessary evil for many people because they facilitate acquiring and trading coins easily. But decentralized exchanges are becoming more common because they allow you to trade while keeping your coins in your control at all times. They need some work and more users, but it’s a promising solution to this problem. Summarizing the above, the big hacks you read about are virtually eliminated if your keys are in your control and you keep them safe.

Fees

Transaction fees are generally negligible in a bitcoin transaction, but in many ways “fees” are holding us back. Interestingly, this is a symptom of being in the very early days.
Firstly, there is a lot of work on “scaling” crypto-currencies (making fees even lower than they already are and increasing transaction speeds). This is just an engineering problem, and many people are working on solving it in many different ways. Other currencies like NANO or IOTA have different underlying tech and have zero fees and instantaneous transactions.
In fact, most fees people encounter aren’t fees from bitcoin transactions; instead, they get hit with fees when exchanging between national currencies and bitcoins. In order to electronically trade USD($), EUR(€), or YEN(¥) with bitcoin, we need to hook into the closed-off for-profit banking network and we need third-parties to do so (and they take their cut).
But even these fees could be avoided in time. For example, you can buy bitcoins with cash directly from a person (localbitoins.com). And, it might seem distant, but in the future you may end up receiving bitcoins as your salary, from a friend, or from accepting them in your place of business. Likewise you can spend your bitcoins directly to other bitcoin users. Getting coins directly eliminates all the exchanging and associated fees because once your money is on the bitcoin network, fees will be negligible (especially as these networks evolve).

Usability

Right now it’s easier than ever to acquire some bitcoin. People can download “Coinbase” or “Square App” on their smartphone and purchase some using a credit card in a few minutes. Depending on which service you use and how much you want to buy, you may need to send a picture of your license for KYC regulations. However, as I mentioned above, there are risks to storing all your coins on exchanges, especially with large amounts. I always recommend transferring them to a wallet where you control the private keys.
But using wallets and storing private keys (and “seeds”) securely, is not as straightforward as we would like. This is a major factor holding back adoption, because if it’s not easy to use, people will consider it too much effort.
The next post in this series digs into wallets and storing your coins.
submitted by mrcoolbp to CryptoTechnology [link] [comments]

Reversal may finally be here :) **\_ . . ..._/**$$

Well boys, it's been a slice watching all this in real time. I got out of IOTA three times to ride other runs as it's been dropping so I can accumulate more and not just sit on the sidelines with my stoplosses hit.. (HIGH RISK - NOT RECOMMENDED). Finally stopping accumulation, here's why:
Just some loose thoughts, if I were to try to actually call it - I'll say we're back to nearing $4 within 24hrs, and climbing. Of course now that I've typed this the opposite is going to happen lol.. Naww I'm on standby from here and feeling confident.
You?
submitted by CryptoBoomer to IOTAmarkets [link] [comments]

A few thoughts - Wednesday, June 25, 2014

A few thoughts for lunch today:

An incorrect prediction and a correct one

Last week, I made two predictions: that there was no way the price could remain stable past this week, and I believed that the rise would begin on Wednesday as the insiders started trading based on what they knew. By now, it appears clear that the insiders know the exact opposite of what I predicted: that the bids are not going to be astronomical, so one of those predictions may be incorrect, assuming that there isn't a huge rally by the evening.
Many people say that markets in bitcoins are random. On the contrary, I believe that everything can be predicted, given enough information. Things only seem random when one does not have enough information to determine why they work that way. This maybe goes all the way down to the quantum level as well; scientists used to think that things like quarks randomly appear and disappear, but many now suspect there is probably a lower level which we do not yet understand.
When the price starts to fall without any news, there has to be a reason for that. The last time it happened, we later discovered that some people knew of the auction before it was announced to the public. This time, we don't yet know what we don't know.
You should always be concerned when something is happening and there does not appear to be a cause for it. There are definitely people who know more than we do and who are acting upon it. There is a guy in /bitcoin who is going to buy $90k in bitcoins. I wish him luck, but there is no way I would be buying today. There is plenty of money to be made after either the big crash, or once there is confirmation this is temporary.

A crisis moment approaching

I commented on this issue yesterday, but I think it is worth discussing again because it is important enough. What is approaching is a crisis moment for bitcoins, and for cryptocurrencies in general.
For as long as I can remember, which is years, all the bitcoin crashes have been associated with external events that did not affect the underlying fundamentals. For example, Mt Gox's incompetence caused several crashes. The Chinese government made laws and took actions to try to kill bitcoins (and failed). The US government issued the initial FinCEN regulations 15 months ago and there was a lot of consternation. Before that, there were high-profile thefts of bitcoins from poorly-designed wallet services, and so on. The only event affecting the fundamentals was the unintentional hard fork in March 2013, but the fork was corrected in hours and was a one-off event that people knew would not repeat.
Now, however, there are a lot of danger signs with the acutal protocol and user behavior that are converging, and there are things that people should actually take notice of. First, we have the issue of transaction volume stalling out. I don't agree with those who say that we can chalk it up to Coinbase. Even if Coinbase was processing transactions off-chain, the reason they are doing that is because the 1MB transaction limit is forcing them to because of the fees. Second, we see thousands of merchants adopting bitcoins, and the number of consumers spending them is very low by orders of magnitude (and there are many wallet services, including Coinbase, that make it easy to spend bitcoins now).
Third, as I said yesterday, people are still going to Western Union and paying 10% extra, which is a lot of money. We are talking about the same market as the extreme couponers who are willing to spend a day cutting out coupons and searching websites to save $30 on their grocery bill. Yet, these people obviously have no qualm about paying $50 for a $500 money transfer. You can't argue that the reason is "it's too difficult" to use bitcoins - while the bitcoin experience can be made simpler, people who have lots of time, and the will to save money will figure out a way to cut out a few bucks from bills wherever they can. They are not doing that. Other issues that can be examined include the low number of Google searches for bitcoins (the tiny spike the last few days doesn't indicate a recovery).
Finally, look at the devastating revelation in /bitcoin that gavinandressen is the only developer actively working on protocol upgrades at the moment. This means more than any of the other reasons to be concerned. It shows that the big payment processors are not willing to significantly invest in protocol development, and it also shows that there could be beauacracy involved that is preventing development from moving forward. Remember, people problems kill projects, not technical ones. There are many pressing issues and bitcoin risks falling behind to another project like NXT, which as I said before, could cause cryptocurrencies to be viewed as a "flavor of the month" instead of a world currency.

Exponential growth is required for the success of bitcoins

Now that I've made the case that we are approaching a crisis moment, let's examine the scenario that could unfold if the auction turns out to have below-market prices. This would turn into a negative feedback loop. Every day the price falls below the auction, the asks in the market fall, and therefore the bids at the auction are going to be even lower. Then, the low price at the auction would signal that Wall Street is not that faithful in bitcoins, and there would obviously be a crash. I believe such a crash would break below the bubble cycle, signaling an end to the traditional pattern of exponential growth (at least for the short-term).
Because this crash would be caused by the fundamentals (lack of rapid adoption), rather than some temporary issue like the Chinese government futilely trying to stop free expression, recovery would be slow.
The problem is that, unlike several years ago, there is a lot of money invested in the system. When bitcoins were worth $2, nobody was working full-time on them and it was a hobby. These people could afford to continue developing services regardless of the price. Now, there are corporations like Coinbase that have large staffs and million-dollar budgets. These companies could not sustain a prolonged downturn in price and usage. There are also many companies that are developing products that require a higher price, and the VC money will only last for so long.
If there is a period where exponential growth stops, then the danger is that companies that were previously expanding suddenly find themselves overstaffed and unable to meet their bills. Layoffs would cause experienced people to move to other industries and never come back, such that if there is a recovery later, new developers need to be hired and they need to learn the protocol from scratch. At the current time, bitcoins cannot sustain a period of prices at levels of the previous cycle.

Mining is also at a crisis point, independently

Miners are coming online at the highest rate ever, with the difficulty expected to approach 18b by the end of the week. That would be the single largest difficulty increase in history.
Why people are turning on mining equipment at current prices doesn't make much sense to me, as there is simply no way that all of this equipment is profitable. This is clearly a "mining bubble," where many people spent millions on mining equipment that is not profitable even before it is turned on. I suspect that, even if the auction turns out in the positive, there is going to be a mining crash soon.
The difficulty rises are simply not sustainable, even if the price were to rise a lot overnight. We already see a lot of mining companies being sued and under investigation; the next phase of this mining bubble unwinding will be farm operators who overinvested and who declare bankruptcy as the difficulty continues to increase 40% every two weeks.
This isn't really relevant to the network's usefulness or to its future, but it is bad news for people who are invested in mining. If I had a cloud hashing contract or owned equipment, I would be selling it immediately, regardless of what I thought was going to happen at the auction.

Other

submitted by quintin3265 to BitcoinThoughts [link] [comments]

How to Pick & Trade the Next Profitable Altcoin: An Insight into What Goes Through my Mind

Abstracted from my blog post. Read the Full Post at: http://alunacrypto.blogspot.nl/2014/02/how-to-pick-trade-next-profitable-altcoin-bitcoin-daytrading.html. And follow me for my latest Bitcoin/Altcoin trading advice on Twitter @onemanatatime (https://twitter.com/onemanatatime).
Introduction
Congratulations on owning some Bitcoins and being a part of this Global Revolution! If you don't already own one, buy one easily from an exchange like Bitstamp.net, Coinbase.com, or from someone near you at Localbitcoins.com. Once you own Bitcoins, you can easily trade them for any available Alternative Cryptocurrency from an altcoin exchange like Cryptsy. I like to use Cryptsy because they have so many available coins, and I also find them to be quite reliable.
So you've been seeing tons of people making money trading Altcoins, while you've been losing tons of Bitcoins buying high and selling low? Whether you're simply frustrated with your "bad luck", or just want to learn more & make more Bitcoins daytrading, I'm here to help! So here's an easy-to-understand guide to picking and trading Bitcoin and Altcoins profitably, and of course, more essential daytrading tips to help us all become profitable cryptocurrency traders.
I know you're all eager to make money, but keep in mind that nothing comes for free and I can only help you so much. Just because you've made 5 good trades doesn't make you a profitable trader, and neither does making 5 bad trades necessarily mean you're a lousy trader. Anyone can flip a coin and see 'heads' 5 times in a row. What we want to look for is consistency, and to do that you'll have to start forming Your Own trading strategy. Before I go on, keep these following points in mind when building up your personal Trading Strategy:
How to Find new Altcoins?
So the first thing is to actually find new altcoins and to read up more about what it has to offer. To begin with, I always browse through the Alternative Currency announcements page on Bitcointalk to see what's popular. All new coins are definitely posted here so you shouldn't miss anything, and since threads with the newest post always appear on top, you usually don't have to look further than 2 pages. Things to look out for include the added value a coin brings (as I'll explain more in the next section), as well as the popularity and virality of the altcoin (i.e. high number of pages in a short time).
Another place to look at is Cryptocointalk where you can find a long list of altcoins available, sorted according to new coins or by algorithm. This list is not completely updated, but is organized much better if you want to find out more about a particular coin.
Secondly, you also want to cross-check your information about these coins on social media sources such as Reddit and Twitter. Start off on...
Read more on my blog at: http://alunacrypto.blogspot.nl/2014/02/how-to-pick-trade-next-profitable-altcoin-bitcoin-daytrading.html
Other topics covered in this post include:
What to Look Out For?
With so many alternatives out there, we really need to be picky when choosing the next altcoin because you don't want to spread yourself too thinly. Firstly, clones of existing ideas/coins are mostly not worth holding for anything more than the short-term. In this sense, there's a few different kinds of coins with their respective leaders in each category, each with their own pros & cons:...
Where to Buy?
When/What's a Good Price to Buy/Sell?
For new altcoins, and especially clones, all you'll need is to find a good price to buy, since there's no charts for you to do any TA yet. I found a pretty useful formula for calculating a fair price, and have found it to be pretty accurate. Use it, let me know what you think about it, and how we can improve it to apply to different coin types etc. by Tweeting me or leaving a comment below.
Here's the Secret Formula to calculate a Fair Price for new altcoins: (Maximum BTC Supply ÷ Maximum Altcoin Supply) ÷ 5000to10000. #crystalball
How to Trade?
Obviously, the most important rule in trading is to "buy low sell high". Unfortunately, that's usually harder to execute than it sounds because of panic and greed. Haven't you learn enough from bubbles? Whatever goes up must come down. Markets will always look for a correction after a big spike. Don't chase the bubble! EVERY parabolic curve/rise is a bubble, and a chance for you to sell your altcoins for a profit. Just wait for it and always set sell positions ready to eat up those buys.
https://twitter.com/onemanatatime/status/432542011410104321
Trading Tips
#0: Don't join Pump & Dumps, period. For someone to make money, someone else has to lose. Don't be the one caught with the short end of the stick.
#1: Always trade with a plan. Before entering a trade, plan not only your entry but also your exit. Don't fall into the trap of panic buying/selling. Once you get over that, everything will start to come together.
#2: Discipline. Be patient and wait for good setups. Plenty of opportunity everyday, don't spread too thin. On a side note, I can't wait for a margin platform for altcoins to be built. If you're building one, hit me up and let see how we can work together (I'm a Business Development and Online Marketing Major).
#3: Money management. Don't spend more than 5-10% of your entire BTC portfolio on a single Altcoin, unless you're damn sure it's gonna be profitable in the mid-long term.
#4: Understand human psychology. Here's a good 5 part series to get you started: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xEcZQdCEiKE
Most Common Pitfalls
1) Placing too much importance on:
2) Overtrading. I'll let the guy whom I learnt all my Bitcoin trading fundamentals from speak about this: Bitcoin Trading Webinar - How To Make Money Trading Bitcoin (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oJ-xROFn0zg). Follow him on Twitter @ChrisDunnTV (https://twitter.com/ChrisDunnTV). Long video, but worth it especially for beginners.
3) Not having a plan beforehand. I can't emphasize this enough. Many people jump into buying an altcoin without thinking about their exit plan. What is your target, when you do sell and take profit, when do you sell and cut losses, or do you have more funds/positions ready to buy more if it continues to dip? Are you holding this for the short term or long term? These are all important questions to ask yourself before making a trade. If you don't have a sound and comfortable strategy before entering trades, more likely than not, you're going to end up losing Bitcoins over the (not so) long run.
4) Trying to predict a bottom/top. Nobody can predict exactly where the price is going next, only a better and more informed guess. I personally think this is the toughest problem to tackle, because when greed takes over, you always think "I could have made so much more if only I sold higher or bought lower".
5) Chasing the bubble. What goes up must come down. https://twitter.com/onemanatatime/statuses/432546827196305408
6) Getting emotionally attached to a particular altcoin. I have to admit this is still a problem for me, and I'm still holding onto bags of WDC, ZET, EAC, MSC, that are currently unprofitable. I bought them earlier on, and didn't take profits from the bubbles. But most important thing is that we learn from our mistakes, and that's why I now like to sell some positions to get into a position to "freeroll".
7) Using Technical Analysis as the sole determinant for making trades. Every indicator is useless - by itself. The market is not stagnant, and prices are affected by everything we can, and cannot think of. Don't be bound by one system of analysis; use every single piece of information you can find, and objectively analyze the markets with a bird's eye view.
My Cryptocurrency Trading Strategy
Firstly, I must emphasize that I'm VERY Bullish on Bitcoin for the Long Term. I've invested every single FIAT dollar I have into Cryptocurrencies since November 2013, and I literally have to start selling Bitcoins 2 months later to pay my rent (or wait for a Bitcoin ATM to appear here). Because of this, I spend a ton of time & effort researching Bitcoin and Altcoins to constantly look for ways to grow my number of Bitcoins. I also have a high risk propensity and so not all my trades will be comfortable for you. My point basically is that nobody's situation is exactly the same, so keep in mind that you'll have to build your own strategy to suit your personal needs, risk preference, available resources, and environment...
My Current Altcoin Watchlist
Long Term:
Mid Term:
Others (Not so impressive but still watching):
Cryptocoinchart.info recently launched a new Social Trading feature; Investment Club. Pretty cool. Check it out: http://www.cryptocoincharts.info/v2/investment_club. Don't forget to stop by periodically and bookmark my Cryptocoinchart Investment Club profile (http://www.cryptocoincharts.info/v2/investment_club/trade12) for updates on which coins I'm eyeing/buying.
Frequently Asked Questions
1. How do you feel about XYZ coin?
First of all, there are over 100 altcoins out there, so don't expect me to know about every coin. If it's an exactly clone of Bitcoin, Litecoin, or anything already available, chances are, it's not worth either of our time.
Secondly, read my tweets and do your own research (lazy = poor). If its worth mentioning, I probably did mention it. If you can't find it on my timeline because its too cluttered, again, do a Twitter search for the Altcoin and find out what the World has to say about it.
Thirdly, there's 100s of altcoins out there for you to choose from. Don't spread yourself too thin and buy into every possible bottom. Leave the shitcoins to die, and stick to altcoins with a stronger fundamentals.
2. If I'm holding a bag of XYZ coin, should I just wait or sell for a loss now?
Rule #1 of the game: Buy Low Sell High. But obviously easier said than done.
If you think the coin isn't going make it to the mid-term, and want to liquidate them, you have two options. Sell now and take the loss; that's the hardest thing to do, but also what every good traders knows he needs to do. Or if you think the coin has potential, buy more at where you think is a low, so your average buy price drops, and you can liquidate some/all as soon as it bounces back up. Think Martingale (doubling) strategy.
P.S. This post took 5 months of hard work and research, and one full work day (with overtime) to write. Feel free to donate some coins my way or send some altcoins to my Cryptsy Trade Key: 9c1e289981a685bf0b8a4e48bc00b35eb1380afa.
BTC: 16ka98tnhs9fAjWEXRmEWVrPfTEwmr9orV LTC: LW4qr8aSfgTwGuU6uvEjnhNKRyJJR9iUbR
Read the full post on: http://alunacrypto.blogspot.nl/2014/02/how-to-pick-trade-next-profitable-altcoin-bitcoin-daytrading.html
P.P.S. I recently came across an idea of a Cryptocurrency Hedge Fund; form a network/team of crypto traders to synergistically work together and achieve profitable returns. Different teams mining, selling altcoins, buying altcoins, looking for potential entry positions, trading bitcoin etc. If you'd like to discuss the idea, feel free to email me at alvinlee133(at)gmail.com or hit me up on twitter @onemanatatime.
submitted by bakedric3 to CryptoMarkets [link] [comments]

New rule! Also are cryptocurrencies an investment, will there be a crash? Everything answered here!

This is going to be the only crypto post for now and an announcement:
Rule 6: Bitcoins & cryptocurrenies should be discussed in CryptoCurrency. Posts regarding this topic will be automatically removed.
If there's a stock correlated with cryptocurrencies, like coinbase going IPO, then that's fine, you might have to message the mods after posting to have it approved, no big deal.
Also if you're questioning whether something is an investment or not, just search for it on personalfinance. For general currency trading strategies, see forex .
If you're wondering if bitcoins are an investment or if there will be a crash, read on.

Are cryptocurrencies an investment?

This post is going to deal with bitcoins & cryptocurrencies as an investment... they're more speculative. All currencies are speculative mostly due to how the forex market works, but more because of exchange rates between countries keep currencies balanced (including inflation, country debt, interest rates, political & economic stability, etc), so you can only profit in price fluctuations.
Sure you could buy the currency of a depressed country, like Mexico decades ago, and then hold in the hopes it'll go up (which it did for Mexico), but that's also speculation (no one knew Mexico would pay off so much debt).
Bitcoins are also affected by other countries' currency values, but more so by the future expectation of legitimacy, world wide adoption, limited gains from mining, and eventual limit in supply. But at any given moment the United States could pay off more debt, raise interest rates to reduce inflation (or cause deflation), grow GDP, or even reduce the supply of USD all of which would increase the value of USD (keep in mind bitcoins can't do any of these things).
Far too many people are treating cryptocoins as an investment because currently (June 5th 2017) a lot of crypto investors are worth a lot of money, god bless you people, so this post will also help you determine if we're headed for a crypto crash and maybe you can keep those profits.

Should I invest in cryptocurrencies?

Understand that an investment is something you hope will go up in the future or provide income, both of which for the long term vs speculation which profits on short term inefficiencies.
Speculative securities are typically commodities, options, bonds, and currencies, but also stocks that are volatile enough to give you extreme returns or extreme loses.

Examples of investments:

Examples of speculation:

Reducing the risk of speculation

Typically for speculation you reduce risk by reducing your trade size and timeframe, but since you're trying to invest into something that is speculative, you can try:
Asset allocation, a strategy that reduces risk.. If you're 80% stocks, 15% bonds, 4% gold, and 1% bitcoins, if something were to happen to bitcoins, you still have 99% of your money.
But even very aggressive long term portfolios leave speculation out completely and just go 100% stocks because stocks benefit from growth while speculative securities like gold benefit from global turmoil in the short term. Only mid risk & mid term portfolios can take advantage of gold's speculative returns.
I also mention asset allocation because many crypto investors have been using this strategy on a portfolio of 100% crypto coins, but that doesn't help you reduce the overall risk of crypto coins, you're just reducing the risk of 1 speculative asset with another speculative asset. 100% crypto portfolio would face the same risks such as being made illegal, IRS aggressively hunting down crypto profits, a drop in correlated coin markets, or just a loss of popularity would all cause a sell off. Even the USD or Chinese currencies becoming more valuable would reduce the value of crypto coins.

Should I buy coins right now?

Cryptocoins are a better investment after a period of consolidation when volatility has stabilized:

Bitcoin 2013/2014 speculation, chart

Bitcoin 2015 consolidation, chart

Source Bitstamp exchange, while the volume is #2 to GDAX, Bitstamp is better to look at for historical price/data, more charts here.

RSI & MACD key for above charts and primer

Analyzing overbought signals

So the first chart above have RSI & MACD screaming that bitcoin is overbought and you shouldn't invest in 2013/2014.
The black squares in the 2nd chart show consolidation and reduced volatility, a "better" time to invest. If you were trading short term, it would be a whole different story, and there would be opportunities to buy & short, but since this is written for investing, the small overbought signals are ignored, so if you were to buy Bitcoin at $300 inside the first blacksquare (2nd chart) and then it suddenly drops to 25%, it's okay because the volatility is much lower compared to previous price movements (nothing compared to 80% loss in the 1st chart). Any investor would tell you a 25% drop is terrible, but bitcoins are speculative and that kind of drop is pretty damn good for this level of volatility.

Nothing goes straight up forever

and anything that comes near this vertical incline will eventually lose 80% to near 100%, always happens, it's usually preceded by emotions (price euphoria), attention, and increased volume, all classic signs that something is becoming riskier.
Other speculative securities gaining multiples and then losing 80% to near 100% of value:

Notable comments on reddit:

*This is just to get you guys looking at different subs on this topic, and yeah it's mostly anti-crypto, but don't let that discourage you.

Is Bitcoin going to crash?

Maybe, the signals are getting louder, you tell me: The only chart you wanted to see this entire time.
So based on the above chart, is bitcoin overbought? MACD levels are the same as 2013's crash, but the increased in value is around 4.3x or 2.4x (depending on which you look at), so maybe we'll see another spike before a crash, I don't know, it's up to interpretation right now. There's the emotional price levels of 3000 and 4000 that we might have no problem getting to in an overbought environment before a correction. And how big will the correction be? I think 80%, but it very well could be around 50% down to $1200, the previous level of resistance which would become support.
I put everything above in its own wiki here.
Well I hope that helps everyone. Sorry to anyone that may feel butthurt on classifying cryptocoins as speculation, I hope you understand the facts. Feel free to argue or agree with this. If I made any mistakes and you point them out, I'll correct them and give you credit for it in an update to this post and the wiki.
Also the automod will is just going to blanket remove posts (not comments) with the following keywords {crypto, bitcoin, btc, etherium, altcoin} (see update 4 below) (this will eventually get relaxed if Coinbase ever IPOs) and then it'll send the user this message:
"Sorry your post[link] was removed in stocks because of rule 6: Bitcoins & cryptocurrenies should be discussed in CryptoCurrency. You can find more information in our are-cryptocurrencies-investments wiki. If you're trying to discuss a non-OTC stock related to cryptocoins like Coinbase IPO, or this was just a mistake, message the mods and they'll approve your post, thanks."
Update: Created wiki, added relevant websites and sub reddits. Also turned on automod reply.
Update2: those relavant websites and subreddits I put into the wiki, thanks u/dross99 for recommending ethereum

Relevant websites/wikis

Relevant subreddits

  • CryptoCurrency - main sub to learn about all bit & altcoins
  • ethtrader - trading eth
  • ethereum - for more eth information
  • btc - the place to have bitcoin discussions or r/CryptoCurrency; while Bitcoin does have a lot of information on Bitcoins in general, you'll find many reddit subs completely opposed to Bitcoin for heavy censorship of discussions, especially those critical of bitcoins, so you're better off reading the sub's wikis and discussing bitcoins in btc & r/CryptoCurrency
  • personalfinance
Update3: Shoutout to the mods on CryptoCurrency
Update4: Updated auto mod keywords, it's not a blanket catch all, a little completed to understand if you don't know regex but it looks like this
"crypto ?(trading|investing)","(should(| I)|could(| I)|can(| I)|how to|is it worth) (buy|sell|mine|min)(|ing) (btc|btcs|bitcoin|ether|etherium|eth|litecoin|ripple|altcoin)" 
submitted by provoko to stocks [link] [comments]

The BCH Halvening will happen seven-weeks before the BTC Halvening, will there be any investment money left for BTC after the BCH frenzy?

BTC is expected to halven on May 29th, 2020. In actuality, any bull-run between then and now will likely lead to increased hashing power that moves the Halvening date up by a few weeks up to a month.
When will BCH halven?
According to this site, the expected date is 4/6/2020, a month and a halve sooner than BTC.
It will happen sooner because early in BCH's history miners would switch back and forth between BCH and BTW whenever the difficulty targets made it more profitable to mine on one or the other chain.
This led to some difficulty on both chains early on in BCH's life, and this was solved by the adoption of the DAA, difficulty adjustment algorithm, which solved the problem by rapidly increasing/decreasing the difficulty when new hashing power arrives or leaves.
One side-benefit to this is that BCH is much less vulnerable to network slow-down if lots of hash-power suddenly leaves the network, whereas BTC has a difficulty-adjustment every 2016 blocks no matter what, with a cap on how much it can change each time, and if they lost half their hash-power suddenly it could take them weeks or months to get back to where the network is working smoothly again.
Because lots of hash power back then was switching to mining BCH when the difficulty was low, resulting in blocks being found very quickly compared to BTC, the BCH blockchain is ahead of the BTC blockchain by about seven weeks, and is likely to remain in that position.
We've had two halvenings in bitcoin history, the first in November 2012 shortly before the price spiked from $12 to $230 and then ran the rest of 2013 up to $1000, the last being in July 2016 where the price doubled around this time from about $400 to $700+ and kept climbing throughout 2017, peaking at $19,000.
It would not be an exagerration to say that 2017 brought crypto-investing into the mainstream. And the fact that crypto's prices did not absolutely collapse in the last six months means a lot.
Because of this, the next Halvening will bring an absolute FRENZY of investment speculation.
Likely many traders are already salivating and preparing their strategies.
But it occurs to me that BCH will halven six weeks before BTC halvens, this creates a significant dilemma for investors.
We could very well see a situation where investors are forced to choose between BTC and BCH. And since BCH halvens first, we may see most investors dropping deep pockets into BCH to see where it goes.
And you can't exactly just jump right out after a Halvening, you need to ride it until the peak. So, what are the chances people will just jump out of BCH and buy into the BTC Halvening soon after? Pretty low, I'm guessing.
Sure many BTC stalwarts will avoid BCH and buy BTC, but those people will have their passions tempered thereafter when they do the math and figure out they could've earned a lot more by being in BCH, assuming that's what goes down at that time, as I expect.
Dunno what's going to happen, but this will be the most exciting Halvening of our lives, and I am really curious to see how the market approaches this one. It may become the point when BCH surpasses BTC in price, and that will be the single most exciting moment in BCH history, and a solid base to launch the future of crypto with.
I'm sure a lot of you will say that BCH will surely have surpassed BTC in price by then, but I think that is too optimistic to hope for. In my experience, such moves take longer to start than you expect, then happen far more rapidly than you would expect.
The good news is that the next halvening is not too close for BCH to differentiate itself and prove its quality by the time people must begin making the choice of where to put their money.
And to those who think the market will price-in the Halvening ahead of time--you guys said the same thing at the 2016 Halvening on the run-up to $400, and the price still doubled afterwards--the price can never be completely priced-in ahead of time due to uncertainty about the future.
So, we shall see, but it certainly looks like timing and circumstance are in our favor.
(If you want a Halvening reminder, here's the ones I'm using that will remind us 15 days ahead of time, which will account somewhat for the Halvening date moving up in time, as it tends to do when new hashpower is added. Note: the "RemindMe!" command is case-sensitive.)
BTC:
RemindMe! 747 days "Bitcoin (BTC) Halvening expected on May 29th 2020"
BCH:
RemindMe! 695 days "Bitcoin Cash (BCH) Halvening expected on April 6th 2020"
submitted by Anenome5 to btc [link] [comments]

On the Behavior of Crypto Securities

I've watched the crypto-securities space a while, and in trying to understand my own thoughts and observations, I wrote this long essay. I'd like to share my thoughts, challenge my own assumptions and hear some differing opinions, what-if's, etc. So, for your reading pleasure...
Preface: I'm long crypto-securities in general. I think there's major innovation coming in this space, and we'll see awesome new business models in the coming years, disruptive ideas that haven't been possible or profitable until now. That said, the current space has some challenges to overcome.
I. General Comments and Challenges
1) Challenge of Valuation.
All this has lead me to price out securities based on a range of Bitcoin prices, a wide range (at the present time) from $2000 to $100 per coin. This outputs as a matrix of BTC prices on one axis, and the target asset's price on the other, and forces me to think of where BTC price is going within the next 3 months (at least), and consider the trade-off for coin / security. I don't always get my target prices in the matrix, but the idea is to provide some analysis and restraint, and try to think long-term.
2) Challenge with IPOs.
So, not rocket science exactly, but a concise business plan and the company's approach to the IPO should point the way to a decent business model worth investment. Risk, both possible good and bad, must be included.
3) Challenge of making an informed, semi-rational decision, based on the above. For extra fun and unpredictability:
These further complicate the task of trying to act rationally in exposing your investment to risk.
II. Observations on assets classes, and risk/reward.
1) Mining
A company buys racks of hardware and configures to mine coins. The SHA-256 proof of work coins require a high capital investment in ASIC mining that ultimately result in diminishing returns due to the fierce competition and increasing difficulty. The next generation of hardware released to market erases differences between mining groups, so the only advantage is temporary, assuming your new hashing hardware even ships at all. Other advantages, such as lower operating overhead, seem short-lived. Many of these mining securities show a quick spike, and then fall flat, as would be expected in an industry where competition is mostly neck-and-neck tied. ASICMINER basically did this, along with the added salt in the wound when the BTC price exploded, share price, as denominated in BTC, collapsed. So, with regret, I don't see crypto-mining as a good long-term investment.
2) Fiat-gateway industries
This is perhaps the most promising sector. People are taking notice of BTC and altcoins, and fiat-for-coin exchanges are popping up all over. Great possibility for attractive profits because they set their own fees for a product in demand and short supply, and can hedge against both fiat and coins. The success of these companies will much depend on how their home jurisdiction acts towards cryptocurrency. China and India seem to hate BTC right now, but these are also states infamous for capital controls. Look for a friendly regulatory environment, good legal counsel, good technical/security expertise, smooth money transfers and a good marketing plan. Then cross your fingers and hope they don't delist.
3) Security exchanges
Rough times for these guys lately. Bitfunder and BCTO shut down a while ago, and some people still have value locked up in limbo. Havelock, CryptoStocks and a few others are still out there, but longterm I think the future belongs to a decentralized exchange system. A single point of attack or failure in this day and age is… unfashionable. These exist in early forms, Ripple, OpenTransactions and colored coins but it's hard to say what's going to catch on and dominate. Everyone seems to have a favorite…
4) Vice industries
Gambling sites like Satoshi dice and variants offer an obvious business model: the house always wins. Then there's CANNABIT, which could be lucrative, but I cannot imagine this going well long-term. There will likely be more innovation in this sector, and more ability for these services to operate outside the bounds of the authorities to quash them, but the risk to investment, the risk of de-anonymization and criminal charges under RICO? No thanks. Vice is nice but not necessarily in the portfolio.
III. Exciting, gamechanging stuff
Interesting thought: What if this innovation is unstoppable? What then?
If you got this far, I hope this was an interesting read and food for thought. So: What do you like/hate in your portfolio? What risk exposures do you like, and which do you think are poisonous? What gamechangers on the horizon do you like/hate? Is it, in fact, nobler in the mind to suffer the slings and arrows of outrageous fortune? :)
submitted by BewareOfGod to BitcoinStocks [link] [comments]

Of Wolves and Weasels - Day 49 - Such Memories

Hey all! GoodShibe here!
So, yesterday I started putting this thing together and WOW did you come out in droves to help! Thank you so much for sharing your ideas and memories. And thank you kindly to the mods for stickying that post!
In one day we reached 60% completion on a list of top 100 Memories and Achievements of Dogecoin! That's amazing! So many fantastic memories and accomplishments!
Which leads me to share some developments.
The title of this endeavor is now - unless someone comes up with something better:
Such Memories: The First 100 Days of Dogecoin
I'm going to be putting this together as a 100-ish paged commemorative book - for free in PDF, probably with some cost as a fancy, printed book (Sold as close to 'at cost' as I can get it -- slipstream- has recommended selling it at a small profit, with profits going toward charities or Dogecoin Foundation for charities, etc - thoughts?).
Artists, if you've got Dogecoin-themed artwork you want to see in this, please, put forward some links to hi-res CMYK copies and I'll do my best to fit it in.
Also! Let's find the funniest, best Dogecoin-related memes that we have put together so far and include them as well! :D)
We're also going to need a cover.
Any artists out there care to try their hand at designing a cover for this?
We'll put it to the community to vote for the one they like the most, and we'll include the others in the book somewhere :D) If you're an artist who submits to the project, you'll get full credit and promotion for your site inside the book (probably in a credits section at the back).
I also want to hear from the community - think up some interesting stories, maybe what got you into Dogecoin. What your fondest memories of Dogecoin are. These first 100 days have been an exciting rollercoaster of adventure... let's make that we never forget all the fun memories we've had together. If you have personal, fun pictures you'd like to share, fun, personal stories you want to see get into the book, then start working on them now, put them into the comments, keep them on hand!.
Here's the list that I have right now - in no particular order:
MOMENTS/ACHIEVEMENTS:
  1. ummjackson's first 'joke' on Twitter about Dogecoin being 'the next big thing'
  2. The original bitcointalk Dogecoin forum page
  3. Dogewallet Hacked
  4. The first Dogecoin paperwallet design
  5. Save Dogemas is put together by the community, to help out victims of the hack. (News articles?)
  6. 15 Million doge raised by the community to save dogemas
  7. SilentShibe's first tip (not sure when that was)
  8. Ophrahshibe's mass-tippings
  9. The forming of the Dogecoin Foundation
  10. Vault of Satoshi adds the first DOGE->USD/CAD exchange
  11. Dogesled - Helping to fund the Jamaican Bobsled team - NPR article
  12. Shibes actually getting to meet with the Jamaican Bobsled team after funding! (pics?)
  13. Olympics Funding: Shibes raise funds to send Indian Lugers to Sochi in a matter of hours
  14. Strange Donuts - The very first brick-and-mortar food purchase with DOGE!
  15. NYC Dogeparty
  16. Doge 4 kids
  17. Doge is now accepted at experiment.com
  18. DOGE bought pizza for the homeless
  19. DOGE's first fork. Scary! slipstream- has found the exact time and date of our first fork: 2014-01-05 00:09:17 (UTC). That's Day 28
  20. The first time a /dogecoin post reached the top of /all (Thanks 42points for the link!)
  21. The first News article to cover Dogecoin - (http://wwwh.eavy.com/tech/2013/12/dogecoin-what-is-shibe-cryptocurrenc/) on Heavy.com dated Dec 9th, 2013, but not sure if it counts as 'News'. Thoughts?|
  22. The first-ever Of Wolves and Weasels post
  23. the creation of Dogec0in.com - a popular Dogecoin waterbowl/chat room
  24. the Christmas Day Dust Fix
  25. Kabosu's owner started accepting dogecoin for charity
  26. Reddit freaked out because they didn't realize it was an online wallet and thought that tiny withdrawals were indicative of hacking
  27. The first Halvening
  28. Our massive jump up from 25 Satoshis
  29. Dogecoin mentioned in the Australian senate (official Transcript here!)
  30. Payment systems for online shops: Moolah.ch, Coinpayments.net, Dogeapi.com
  31. PoS systems for brick and mortar: dogePoS, moolah (still in beta)
  32. Markets to sell product in dogecoin: shibemart.com, muchmarket.com
  33. Classifieds: suchlist.com
  34. Micro jobs network: dogerr.com
  35. The birth of Dogetipbot v1 - Went Live on 12/15/2013 - First ever dogetip!
  36. Rise of the tipbots: Youtube, Facebook, Twitter, Imgur, etc.
  37. Fork #2
  38. The "inflationary" characteristic of Dogecoin announcement from devs
  39. DogeTEL. The first cryptocurrency phone service!
  40. Fido.pw - sending DOGE via SMS anywhere in the world!
  41. Stuffcoins.com - created by stuffcoins an eBay for Dogecoins
  42. alwaysgeeky, Indie dev sells his game VOX for DOGE.
  43. triverske and friends over at /dogecrafters teach our DOGEs how to play Minecraft! with us - and share our DOGEs on any Minecraft Server
  44. vBulletin Forums Integration! daveaite has created a free plugin for vBulletin, allowing users to directly tip one another in Dogecoin!
  45. 'Universal' DOGE Tippers: DogeTip.co, built by woowdoge and Altcend, created by altcy. Send (password protected) tips - both the sender and the receiver have to sign up.
  46. DogeBucket.com is a Crowd Funding/Crowd Tipping website created by Goldiepurps and their team!
  47. Doge Lodge in Tehran, Iran - created by lincoln_lava - is a homestay if you happen to be in the area (or want to visit) for 10K DOGE per night.
  48. ÐTunes, created by hjras is a great place to sell and buy independent music for Dogecoins. Very cool!
  49. Stat-checkers: DogePulse, created by shibeous and Dogedump, created by cryptogaz
  50. Armstrong Steel - A Steel Building OEM Manufacturer is now accepting Dogecoin! Thanks to SekcRokStallion for their efforts to bring their workplace on board! That's most-definitely a first!
  51. Corinthian Transportation is now allowing you to pay for Limo services with Dogecoin!
  52. Buying homemade bbq/marinade sauce with DOGE - dogesauce.com
  53. @Adult's record-setting DOGE-tip on Twitter
  54. (http://www.reddit.com/dogecoin/comments/1yfnrx/looks_like_kraken_got_doge/) that the exchange [Kraken.com](http://www.kraken.com] is now accepting Dogecoin!
  55. The UniverseProject will be using Dogecoin as the main currency for their game VoidSpace.
  56. The "SnowDoge" Competition! Check it out HERE
  57. MultiDoge - First altcoin light wallet.
  58. Treats.io - The first place to buy giftcards with DOGE
  59. Buygold.io - The first place to buy Reddit Gold with DOGE
Added today:
TOTAL: 100/100
Also: I was thinking we might have a pour-one-out for all the Orphans - a page dedicated to all the blocks we lost along the way... thoughts?
What have I missed?! Let me know in the comments!
It's 8:29AM EST and we're at 53.95% of DOGEs found. Our Global Hashrate is spiking from ~61 to ~98 Gigahashes per second and our Difficulty is down slightly from ~1024 to ~1014.
Lots of fantastic things in store, let's keep this list growing!
As always, I appreciate your support!
GoodShibe
TL;DR: 100/100!!!
submitted by GoodShibe to dogecoin [link] [comments]

GPU MINING 2020 PROFIT SPIKE - February Update! Cara Mining Dogecoin, Bitcoin Pakai VPS untuk Pemula - Gratis Bitcoin Mining BITCOIN tanpa deposit Tutorial Trading untuk awalan pemula di market Bityard Mining Profitability 2019  Earnings Spike

BTC mining, on the other hand, has had a much smoother ride in recent years. Cumulative Bitcoin Mining Revenue Tops $16 Billion. The epic bull run of 2017 created a number of major changes to the crypto landscape. Before then very few people had knowledge of bitcoin, and even fewer on all of the altcoins out there. Bitcoin (BTC) is back baby. And it seems to be back with a vengeance… against bears. As reported by Blockonomi previously, the leading cryptocurrency suddenly broke past $4,200 after a slow and steady uptrend that lasted for weeks, pushing $4,400, $4,600, $4,800, and even $5,000 in rapid succession. However, BTC pulled back following that event, falling to $4,600 as buyers failed to maintain Bitcoin Mining Landscape. “However, given the recent spike in coin market capitalization, it seems unlikely that the space is dead. Since 2013, bitcoin has outperformed the S&P 500. Litecoin mining profitability. With the recent price spike of Bitcoin and Litecoin, the digital currencies are moving out of the nerdy shadows and onto the pages of Forbes and Vice.. If you are not familiar with Litecoin yet, it is a decentralized digital peer-to-peer currency used over internet based off the concepts of the ever growing Bitcoin. If you plan on seriously mining bitcoin the answer is yes. During bitcoin's first major spike in 2013 — when prices rose from $15 to more than $140 — there was a huge boom in graphics card sales. New companies were set up to sell a type of specially built computer known as an ASIC, or application-specific integrated circuit.

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GPU MINING 2020 PROFIT SPIKE - February Update!

Tutorial Mining Mirco Bitcoin dengan VPS Profit 100 ribu Perhari - Gratis bitcoin - Duration: 11:16. Mining Trading Bitcoin Indo 634 views. ... vip spike 733 Recommended for you. Judul : mining bitcoin tanpa deposit Assalamu'alaikum gays kembali lagi sama saya di Chanel ARJUNA GB semoga kalian yg nonton selalu diberikan kesehatan yg sedang bekerja juga diberikan keselamatan. Hari saya bagi informasi untuk mining micro bitcoin dan untuk profit bisa 150 -200 ribu tergantung worker kalian semakin banyak makin banyak coin yang bisa di tambang MicroBitcoin site: https ... mining profitability 2019, gpu mining 2019, bitcoin mining 2019, profitability, mining 2019, crypto, gpu mining farm, best mining rig, btc, proof of work, 1660 mining, eth mining, ethereum mining ... Free Bitcoin mining site 2020 ... Non-profit, educational or personal use ... NYC police union president blasts city's liberal leaders over spike in crime - Duration: 4:54.

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