(The Political and Demographic Survey for Lovers of the Global Poor was fielded periodically in five waves from mid-August 2019 through mid-January 2020. It was made possible with a generous grant from the Open Society Foundations, a philanthropic venture founded by George Soros.)submitted by IncoherentEntity to u/IncoherentEntity [link] [comments]
This unscientific survey and its modest samples are by no means a definitive account of this community's attitudes or demography, and I've identified at least a few methodological shortcomings. Two of them — namely, the limited answer selection for favorability questions and the wording of one option in the religious affiliation query — are described below.
More significantly, however, my decision to prioritize insights about the demographic makeup of this subreddit (wherein I limited each respondent to one wave to prevent duplicates) necessarily came at the expense of revelations about its political opinions. As a result, it is impossible to exclude the possibility that apparent trends between one wave and the next are not due at least in part to a response pool whose politics are systematically different from previous ones.
But with the above caveats laid out, I present to you — at long last — the topline findings and corresponding analyses from my personal contribution to the Neoliberal Project!
💎 Joe Biden 💎 🥀 Bernie Sanders 🥀 👵🏼 Elizabeth Warren 👵🏼 👮🏾♀️ Kamala Harris 👮🏾♀️ 🏳️🌈 Pete Buttigieg 🏳️🌈 🍦 Michael Bloomberg 🍦 📒 Amy Klobuchar 📒 🧮 Andrew Yang 🧮 🛹 Beto O'Rourke 🛹 📖 Cory Booker 📖 💪 John Delaney 💪
🍊 Donald Trump 🤴 👩⚖️ Nancy Pelosi 👩⚖️ 🌹 Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 🌹
🐎 Democratic Party 🐎 🐘 Republican Party 🐘 🌿 Libertarianism 🌿
Wave 1 (N=222 | August 11–13, 2019)https://preview.redd.it/9e9bkuw54do41.png?width=894&format=png&auto=webp&s=3628e55ac8dd64a419517951eb5ad771ae96703e
🏳️🌈 (36.9%) earns a large plurality, with 🛹 (19.8%) taking second place. 💎 (10.8%) and 💪 (9.0%) follow up in third and fourth, while the fiercely progressive 👵🏼 (5.9%) earns a fair share as well. The remaining candidates combine for 15 percent of the first-preference vote, with no individual candidate reaching 4 points.
Opinions of 🏳️🌈 (91.6) soar sky-high, with nearly 9 in 10 expressing a favorable view. In a not-so-close second is 👩⚖️ (84.2) for whom close to 8 in 10 have a positive opinion. 💎 (80.9) is the second-placed Democratic candidate, with nearly 3 in 4 offering a positive view, with nobody else even remotely close.
👵🏼 (46.1) finds herself slightly underwater, with a –7.7% net rating, and 👮🏾♀️ (43.2) is close behind. Of the five highest-polling candidates at the time of the survey, 🥀 (12.1) finds himself in an ignominious last, with just under a mere 1 in 10 giving a favorable view.
However, nobody on the left side of the aisle can come close to 🍊🤴 (1.4), who lands just a hair above being universally despised.
Wave 2 (N=140 | October 11–15, 2019)https://preview.redd.it/ckpx1vo94do41.png?width=894&format=png&auto=webp&s=f3e5d3ecac7f85c3d64cc5c20979027d0e4456e6
🏳️🌈 (38.6%) once again lands on top, more than tripling niche-favorite 💪's (12.1%) share, who is in a tight cluster for runner-up with 🛹 (11.4%) — who suffered a steep decline — 💎 (11.4%), and 👵🏼 (10.7%), who nearly doubled her vote. The rest take a little under 1/7th of the vote, with nobody breaking 4 percent.
🏳️🌈 (92.8) hurdles the 9 in 10 threshold for favorability. 👩⚖️ (89.6) sees her already stellar standing improve substantially, while 💎 (83.1) trades places with his party.
👵🏼 (55.4) surges into positive territory, while 👮🏾♀️ (33.9) takes a big hit. 🥀 (14.9) is once again dead last.
Wave 3 (N=165 | November 11–14, 2019)https://preview.redd.it/0bqavm8d4do41.png?width=894&format=png&auto=webp&s=4b4bec0be0a8849f120826f063de028bb2ab935a
Pulling a clear majority of the vote, 🏳️🌈 (54.5%) obliterates the field. 💎 (18.8%) substantially increases his share, while 👵🏼 (5.5%) has her percentage halved and 💪 (4.2%) cut by a brutal two-thirds. The remaining candidates take 14 percent, with no individual candidate surpassing the 4-point threshold.
🏳️🌈 (93.9) inches still closer to the mathematical limit, as 👩⚖️ (84.2) recedes and 💎 (83.0) replicates his previous robust showing.
👵🏼 (38.5) nosedives, and 👮🏾♀️ (38.1) recoups some of her losses. 🥀 (12.1) returns to his abysmal rating in the first wave.
🍊🤴 (2.7) climbs further, doubling his Wave 1 standing in an impressive show of newfound popularity.
Wave 4 (N=150 | December 23–26, 2019)https://preview.redd.it/7ozcxrue4do41.png?width=894&format=png&auto=webp&s=1546d0102b91dab50da987d272bfe96873ecb243
🏳️🌈 (54.0%) repeats his dominating performance, while 💎 (22.0%) earns twice his initial share. A meaningful minority contingent selects the otherwise broadly reviled 🥀 (4.7%), and late-entrant 🍦 (4.7%) matches. 🧮 (4.0%) earns his mention with a number of votes, 👵🏼 (2.7%) loses another half off her support, and 💪 (1.3%) fades into the background.
🏳️🌈 (91.3) loses a bit of his still-vibrant luster, and 👩⚖️ (91.3) draws right even with him as her skeptics are slashed by no less than half. 💎 (87.6) significantly improves his already excellent numbers.
The now-departed 👮🏾♀️ (48.3) surges to near-even favorability, while 👵🏼 (34.0) is further depressed. 🥀 (17.3) rises somewhat from the abyss.
Wave 5 (N=187 | January 12–14, 2020)https://preview.redd.it/va1ly13i4do41.png?width=894&format=png&auto=webp&s=e5d6a87273fa6eafc4f19409f2762020942f3aeb
🏳️🌈 (45.5%) loses his outright majority as 💎 (28.9%) significantly increases his vote share for the fourth consecutive wave. 📒 (4.8%) rises to the top of the second tier, with 📖 (4.3%) just behind.
💎's (91.2) unrelenting rise is mirrored in favorability as he dethrones 🏳️🌈 (90.3) for the first place in the metric.
👮🏾♀️ (55.8) rides cleanly into positive territory, and 👵🏼 (45.7) sees her image improve substantially, perhaps aided by an ongoing feud with 🥀 (13.8), who falls from his personal high.
🍊🤴 (1.0), for his part, kisses the floor.
Bernie Sanders vs. Donald Trumphttps://preview.redd.it/mve7hnyfodo41.png?width=427&format=png&auto=webp&s=6dc3f26f3106411133c5e830746f1e9aab1fc7be
The overwhelming majority — 8 in 10 — of neoliberal are willing to hold their noses and vote for 🥀 were he the nominee, but the percentage shrunk by just over 1 percent in every successive wave but one, while the number of defectors reached a high of 8 percent in the fourth before receding somewhat. This is perhaps due to the increasingly bitter nature of the primary.
A similarly overwhelming 82 percent majority across all five waves oppose allowing businesses to deny service to LGBT+ customers on the basis of their orientation, while just 1 in 8 expressed support.
By a 72–15 margin, neoliberals support changing the individual income tax schedule in the United States to add 40 and 45 percent brackets for respective annual incomes over $1,000,000 and $2,500,000. (The difference between the waves with highest and lowest margins in favor are statistically significant, although the reason behind this is unclear.)
An incredible 3 in 4 respondents offer support for the politically suicidal stance of no government restrictions on abortion rights, with just 1 in 6 opposed — yet more evidence that neoliberal's moderation applies only to economics and not social and cultural issues, where its orientation is solidly leftist.
On the flipside, significantly raising tax rates on higher corporate income brackets while cutting them for lower ones receives a cool reception: just under 1 in 3 expressed support for the proposed change. Many (1 in 5) were unsure, however, and the percentage of opponents falls short of majority level.
Notably, following an initial dip, approval of the proposition increased significantly from Wave 2 to Wave 5. Again, it is not clear what was behind this shift.
A narrow 2-point plurality favored outlawing semiautomatic rifles and magazines carrying over 10 rounds over the entire survey period, but this masks the sharp drop in support from the first wave to the second.
There is an explanation that likely accounts for this precipitous change: 🛹's politically risky proposal for a mandatory buyback of AR–15s, as well as perhaps prior preference for sub-favorite 🏳️🌈, who was its most vocal opponent.
No policy proposal saw a greater consensus than the introduction of a public option for Medicare, with an impressive 7 in 8 in support. The unequivocal figure is emblematic of the observation that the disagreement between the center-left and the hard-left is typically over the means — not the end.
neoliberal is a downright fraternity, with over 9 in 10 respondents identifying themselves as male and just 6 percent as female. The remaining 1 in 40 or so identified beyond the gender binary.
(I did not try to break out transgender males and females specifically, fearing that the small figures might convey more noise than signal.)
An alternate tagline for this community could be "Zoomer Nation," as a 3 in 5 majority are too young to be included in the Census Bureau's calculation of the percentage of Americans with a college degree. The pattern in the remainder of the sample was scarcely any less stark: 1 in 3 were between the ages of 25 and 34. A vanishing 1 percent — 9 respondents — were 45 or older.
Limited to the 40 percent of respondents aged at least 25, this subsample offers yet another indication of how vastly different the userbase of neoliberal is from the general population. With nearly 6 in 7 seniors harboring a bachelor's degree — and 3 in 8 having at taken courses further beyond — the community comprises an elite stock. (As of 2018, 35 percent of Americans in the same age range have graduated college.)
Somewhat over 3 in 4 of the sample identified their ethnic background as white — likely a few Taylor Swifts short of what the community has seemed to envision as a battle against a polar bear in a snowstorm at the 90° parallel.
Considering the proportion of respondents from the United States ⬇️, Asian neoliberals (8.4%) were overrepresented and users of mixed ancestry (7.0%) even more so, while Hispanic (4.5%) and Black (3.2%) members fell far short of their representation in the general population.
neoliberal is a highly secular community, with 2 in 3 stating their irreligiosity, while about 23 percent identified as Christians and 10 percent professed their affiliation with another religion.
(It's worth pointing out that these numbers are meaningfully out of line with a survey conducted of this subreddit two years ago, wherein a full 80 percent selected one of the religiously unaffiliated options and just 5 percent reported identification with another religion. It is possible that the use of "Unaffiliated" instead of "No religion" as the third selection confused certain respondents.)
Perhaps a sign of the generational times, right between 1/5 and 1/4 of respondents identified as a sexual minority. This is far higher than surveys of the public report for the youngest generation, however, so other major factors are certainly at play.
In an attempt to limit the sample to those for which the questionnaire would be most relevant, I discouraged non-Americans from taking the survey, so these figures are not intended to be representative. (A follow-up poll strongly suggests that few heeded the request.)
However, I have included it to contextualize the rest of the data.
~ ~ ~ ~ ~
All Graphical Representations
Detailed Responses by Individual (useful for those who would like to do analyses of their own)
¹ I discovered in a poll following up my wave survey that the lack of options for different intensities of positive/negative opinion omitted critical nuance in the data. Relatively speaking, 🏳️🌈 suffered most because of this, while 💎 benefitted a fair bit.
² Favorable = 100 | Neither = 50 | Unfavorable = 0
Been hammering away at the timeline of the ExoSquad universe. We now have a decently comprehensive timeline spanning from the year 1999 up through 2109.submitted by TorroesPrime to exosquad [link] [comments]
July 24, 1969 - Apollo 11 conducts the first Moon landing on Luna
July 8, 1999 - the existence of a 10th planet beyond the orbit of Pluto is postulated. Despite numerous efforts to confirm the existence of such a planet over the next 100 years, no such planet is identified.
March 10, 2005 - The Sun’s binary sister star, NEMESIS, is discovered. Its elliptical orbit takes it closest to earth every 60 million years. During its last pass, it wiped out the dinosaurs.
August 2, 2009 - First permanent industrial and mining colonies are established on the Moon. Astronauts begin detailed exploration of the other planets.
December 30, 2010 - The year marks several advances in artificial intelligence and biology. The earliest methods of communication between computers and the human brain are developed.
September 27, 2011 - Deep space probes in Neptune orbit detect the first proven transmissions of intelligent life outside of our solar system. Tracking studies indicate that the signals are from a source moving towards earth space.
October 10, 2012 – The first ‘industrial scale’ orbital platform is placed into orbit around earth. Used for a combination of scientific experimentation, energy collection, and interplanetary communication, the platform is designated as “Tinia”.
May 4, 2015 - Large space platforms placed in orbit around Venus and Mars. These platforms are intended to be early precursors to proposed terraforming processes as well as scientific platforms.
June 22, 2019 - Exceptionally rich mineral deposits discovered on Mars - including minerals never before seen.
October 10, 2019 - The Marcus-Vainmoore Enterprises mining branch attempts to short change the Martian mining efforts by launching mining operations in the Asteroid belt.
July 17, 2020 - Exotechnology (Exo-tech) developed. The technology is put to work in large scale industrial projects.
December 10, 2010 - Exo-tech is utilized for Martian excavation.
Dec 2, 2023 - Full-scale terraforming of Venus begins, making extensive use of Exo-tech.
Feb. 14, 2017 - Semi-permanent settlements begin appearing on Venus. Problems are encountered with Martian Terraforming, due to the thin atmosphere and low gravity - early colonists die while support resources, intended to allow colonies to be self-sufficient, have significant difficulty in being maintained in the lower gravity of the planet. The Manned orbital stations, that were previously placed in orbit over Venus and Mars are expanded to support more robust operations with additional resources being put into the Martian platforms in the hopes of augmenting the colonization and terra-forming process. Additional platforms are put into orbit around Mercury.
January 8, 2028 - The Outer Planet Mining Corporation (OPM) is formed for the purpose of harvesting the valuable minerals from the moons of Saturn, and Jupiter. As a “humanitarian effort” the Earth Congress authorizes the usage of convicts as a labor pool in exchange for reduced sentences.
March 15, 2032 - Genetic engineering breakthrough allows manipulation of life forms. “Designer” animals and plant life appear. Serious attempts to begin to develop ‘augmented’ human beings that can endure the rigors of life on Mars and off-world.
April 2, 2032 - The first (OPM) mission is launched to Saturn’s moon Tethys. It is designated as “Charon”.
September 10, 2032 - Charon makes planetfall on Tethys. Over the next year, the mining complex “Charon” is established and built up to support a population of nearly 3,000 convict laborers.
April 5, 2034 - OPM Establishes the mining complex “Cocytus” on Tethys.
May 14, 2036 - OPM mining complex “Elysium” is established on Dione.
June 24, 2036 - Larger deposits are discovered on Tethys. Expansions for the Charon mining complex are set in motion that will be carried out over the next 5 years intended to expand its mining capacity. Its support capacity would ultimately be increased to 5,500 convicts making it the largest of the Saturn Mining complexes.
June 20, 2038 - OPM Mining complex “Phlegethon” is established on Enceladus.
June 2, 2040 - Scientists succeed in creating a new strain of evolutionarily advanced humans known as “Neosapians”.
June 19, 2040 - OPM Mining complex “Lethe” is established on Titan.
December 25, 2042 - OPM Mining complex “Erebus” is established on Tethys.
December 9, 2044 - OPM establishes the last of 7 mining complexes in the Saturn planetary system. This last complex is established on the moon of Dione and is designated “Agensader”. Between the 7 mining complexes, a total population of over 23,000 people is present for mining.
May 5, 2045 - Earth and Venus form the “Home World Senate”. Humans from these two planets become known as ‘TERRANS’. “Zeus Reborn”, a 2-year project to repurpose the Tinia Platform is drafted and put into operation. Its purpose is to re-configure the platform to house the Home World Senate central complex. In the interim, the Senate is housed in Sidney.
June 1, 2047 – “Zeus Reborn” is completed. The Home World Senate officially moves from Sidney Australia to the Tinia Platform.
Jan 4, 2048 - Cloned Neosapiens begin mining and terraforming operations on Mars.
October 4, 2048 – Jeremiah Winfield is born.
November 10, 2048 - With Neosapians mining on Mars, the cost of the various materials drops significantly to the point that OPM is facing bankruptcy. In an effort to maintain itself, OPM cancels all further supply runs and operations of the Saturn mining network. A cover story about “Saturn Madness” is fabricated and spread, convincing the public at large that the convicts have all gone mad, thus no effort to rescue them is made or suggested.
January 1, 2049 - The convicts realize that they have been abandoned. In retaliation, they form the Pirate Clans of Saturn.
January 6, 2055 - the first raids by the Pirate Clans are conducted just outside the Martian orbit. Several Marcus-Vainmoore ships are attacked and their cargo stolen. The crews are left alive but are disfigured. The raids grow in frequency over the next several years.
January 15, 2055 – OPM is re-organized into Outer Planetary Freight, primarily a shipping company. Abandoning much of their mining background and ambitions.
January 30, 2060 – Exo-tech is tested for use in military applications.
January 1, 2061 – The Home Worlds Senate passes the Extra-Terrestrial Armed Services decree, formally establishing a unified military force that supersedes the authority of individual armies and is under the direct authority of the Home Worlds Senate. This military is colloquially known as ‘ETAS’. The Extra-Terrestrial Operations Network (ETON) is established and integrated into the Home Worlds senates communications hub. This advent gives ETAS access to all the satellite data available to the Home Worlds Senate itself and allows the Senate to more directly control ETAS.
May 1, 2061 – The Exo-Tech development for military applications shows progress. The first star fighters to be fitted with the cyber-link data processing system giving the pilots greater depth of input to the fighter itself. The XAF-221 Badger becomes the first ‘exo-fighter’.
October 10, 2061 – The Great Neosapians Birthing Complex is completed on Mars. Accelerated growth and intra-cranial organo-educated implants produce 25,000 Neosapien adults each Martian month, totaling 300,000 per year.
December 10, 2061 – Neosapian brood Sci-Alpha-Tau 21699 is completed. This brood includes Phaeton and Marsala.
January 19, 2062 – Marsala is appointed as the Production Coordinator for the 3rd Sector of Martian Mining operations, the single largest on Mars.
August 25 2065 - Population of Neosapiens increase rapidly. Mars is predominantly populated by these advanced humans.
December 2, 2065 - Unrest begins on Mars in the wake of Home World Senate’s decision that ‘artificial’ life forms don’t have the rights of other “natural” humans. Neosapiens demand home rule.
January 10, 2068 – Jeremiah Winfield enlists with ETAS.
October 10, 2070 – Inspired by Marsala, the great Neosapian rebellion begins. Systematic sabotage slows Martian mining as Marsala calls for negotiations with the Home Worlds congress. The majority of these transmissions go unanswered only serving to further fuel the rebellion. Marcus-Vainmoore Communications is harshly criticized for it’s maintaining of the communications network leading some to believe that the ‘lack of communications’ from the Neosapians is deliberate.
October 18, 2070 - Marcus-Vainmoore mining attempts to capitalize on the crisis by upping their mining efforts in the asteroid belt. They establish permanent supply stations and support centers on several of the largest asteroids including Ceras, Vesta, Eros, Bennu, and Juno. Utilizing their political influences, they successfully lobby to have the ETAS’ patrol routes set to include the Asteroid field in order to protect their assets. It is widely suggested that this is done with the ulterior motive of allowing the Neosapian rebellion to continue.
February 11, 2071 – Matthew Marcus is born.
April 12, 2071 – The Neosapians rebellion intensifies, bringing all mining on mars to a halt. Even with the increased mining from the Asteroid belt, the Home Worlds economy begins to collapse.
June 10, 2071 – The Exo-Tech development program brings the concepts of cyber-links and exo-skeletons together, allowing the designers to create vehicles with the fire power of a tank, but the control options and benefits that had made the XAF-221 Badger so popular. These are the direct precursors to the “Exo-Frames”. Jeremiah Winfield becomes the leader of one of the first ‘E-frame Squads’ designated “Blue Alpha”.
August 1, 2071 – the ETAS puts in a substantial order for the new “Exo-Frames” as works to modernize its forces. The “E-frame” becomes so synonymous with the ETAS, that the organization comes to be known as the “Exo-Fleet”. As the Exo-Fleet develops, more and more state-based militaries are either absorbed into it, or simply dissolved as they are viewed as being redundant and unneeded.
November 1, 2071 – Exo-Fleet is called on to quell the Martian Rebellion.
November 6, 2071 – The Exo-Fleet moves into controlling orbit of Mars and begins conducting lightning raids against Neosapain held locations. The newly formed “E-frame Squads” prove devastatingly effective.
November 13, 2071 – Marsala is captured by Blue Alpha and the rebellion is broken. Calls for Marsala to be tried for leading the rebellion are made. Legal counsel offers a motion that because Marsala is not a “Natural Born” he is not entitled to a trial for his actions, but likewise cannot be held accountable for them any more than a dog that is beaten by its owner can be held accountable when it attacks someone. The Companies that had financed and controlled the mining operations on Mars are put on trial for the Rebellion.
December 1, 2071 – with the recent success of the E-frame tactics, previous plans for the Exo-fleet are scrapped. Ship orders are canceled in favor of some form of not yet designed ‘Exo carrier’ and more emphasis is placed on the utilization of E-frames.
January 10, 2074 – The trials of the Martian mining companies are completed. There are numerous fines and jail sentences passed down as it is determined that the business practices and operations of the Martian Mining companies lead directly to the rebellion and the effects on the Home Worlds’ economy that caused. The Neosapians are granted custodial control of Mars.
March 5, 2074 – Several groups begin campaigning for Neosapians to be allowed to join the Exo-Fleet. These demands are presently ignored.
Sept 2, 2076 - Neosapiens allowed to sit on the Home World Senate primarily as observers only. For matters of official status, their delegate is given a ‘non-voting’ seat.
February 28, 2086 - Despite Neosapian protest, approval is given to build another massive Excavation project in the southern hemisphere of Mars.
March 12, 2089 - Homeworld Senate rejects Neosapien bid for complete autonomy.
March 14, 2089 – The Home Worlds Senate approves the “Exo-Carrier Construction program”, a combination development, test-bed, and construction program intended to modernize the Exo-Fleet, cut down on costs by developing purpose built ships, and to replace the currently 60 year old ship designs presently utilized by the Exo-Fleet.
April 4, 2092 - The Neosapien leader Phaeton becomes spokesman for the Neosapien population of mars in their disputes with the Terrans.
April 12, 2092 – The Home Worlds Senate approves the Yumoto class Exo-cruiser. Ships to come out of this class include the Bismarck, and Sakura.
May 20, 2093 – The Home Worlds Senate approves the Kuznetsov-class Exo-carrier. Ships to come out of this class include the Borealis.
October 10, 2094 – The Home Worlds Senate approves the Helgoland-class Exo-carrier. Ships to come out of this class include the Coronado.
June 1, 2099 – The Home Worlds Senate approves the Resolve-class Exo-carrier. Ships to come out of this class include the Dominion, and Sovereign.
May 15, 2100 – The HWS Bismarck is launched
October 30, 2100 – the HWS Sakura is launched.
December 1, 2100 – The Home Worlds Senate Approves the Resolute variant of the Resolve class of Exo-carriers and orders one to become the new flagship of the Exo-fleet.
May 15, 2016 – The HWS Dominion is launched. It is temporarily named the Exo-fleet flagship.
May 15, 2107 – The HWS Borealis is launched.
October 30, 2107 – the HWS Coronado is launched.
May 10, 2108 – The Home Worlds Senate passes the ETAS Militarization prioritization decree cutting back on weapons and military-type hardware that can be possessed by non-military operations. The Neosapiens are very specifically mentioned as not being permitted to possess any form of military hardware.
October 19, 2108 - Neosapiens protest the ETAS Militarization prioritization decree as it is being applied to include industrial-scale transport systems under the idea of “military hardware”. This forces the Neosapians to rely on the transport options provided by the likes of Marcus-Vainmoore, Outer Planetary Freight, and the Martian Mining Conglomerate.
November 18, 2109 – In an effort to appease the Neosapian and lessen tensions, the Home Worlds Senate passes the ETAS Combined Arms decree, permitting a limited number of Neosapians to enlist with the Exo-Fleet. Marsala immediately enlists and it is permitted, both for political reasons and for the belief that if he’s kept isolated from the Neosapiens at large, it’s less likely that the could start a second rebellion.
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