My python and ML knowledge is very basic, I'm just doing this for fun. submitted by
I wrote a simple sequential model that takes the last 168 hours of bitcoin prices (1 price for each hour) and some technical indicators derived from that data (168 hour sma, 168 hour ema, macd, macd distance from signal line, median price; all these indicators are normalized as percent change from current price) as input. It gives one output: predicted price in 24 hours as a percent change.
When I train this, there is very little improvement. I have messed around with hidden layer size and quantity, but it makes little difference. It's being trained on data going back to 2015.
I assume that there simply isn't enough data to obtain any insight into something as erratic as this with such a broad model. Is this to be expected, or am I doing something wrong?
Prompt in bold. This is an interview between Ghenlezo and Eliezer Yudkowsky. Yudkowsky replies clearly and does not repeat himself. Ghenlezo is a separate person who will provide questions but will not be predicted. The following describes Eliezer: Eliezer Shlomo Yudkowsky (born September 11, 1979) is an American artificial intelligence (AI) researcher and writer best known for popularizing the idea of friendly artificial intelligence.[ He is a co-founde and research fellow at the Machine Intelligence Research Institute (MIRI), a private research nonprofit based in Berkeley, California. His work on the prospect of a runaway intelligence explosion was an influence on Nick Bostrom's Superintelligence: Paths, Dangers, Strategies. An autodidact Yudkowsky did not attend high school or college. ] Ghenlezo: Hi, Eliezer, thanks for agreeing to this interview. Eliezer: You are welcome.
Ghenlezo: So your organization, MIRI, went dark in the last couple of years. Can you give us a hint on what you have been working on?
Eliezer: I'm not sure if it would be appropriate to discuss my current projects here, so I'll just say that they're important.
Ghenlezo: That is fair I suppose. Are you worried that, with the rise of models such as GPT-3, you will not be able to solve the safety problem in time?
Eliezer: No, I don't think so. My current projects focus on improving our ability to make safe AI systems.
Ghenlezo: Yes. But will MIRI solves the problem before OpenAI builds an AGI?
Eliezer: Possibly, but this is not our main concern right now. MIRI has created a number of other frameworks and techniques that could be useful for other groups.
Ghenlezo: And have you shared this yet with other groups, DeepMind and the like?
Eliezer: No, and I won't share it until I believe that the right group is motivated to use these methods. The organizations you mentioned are not doing this sort of work for a few reasons.
Ghenlezo: And those are?
Eliezer: One is that they are focused on military AI. The other is that they are primarily motivated by power and control, not what is best for the future of humanity.
Ghenlezo: That is dispiriting. Altman and Hassabis seem so nice and personable. They sure look like they are trying to do good. Is this just a facade?
Eliezer: (Sigh) No, I don't think so. But I'm convinced that they are motivated by something better than just a desire for power and control.
Ghenlezo: I think I am not understanding something. Are you saying that the DeepMind/OpenAI leaders are well-intentioned, but the organizations they run are pathological?
Eliezer: No, I don't believe I'm saying that. I think they are quite intelligent and they are perfectly capable of rational thought and therefore fully capable of understanding the problem they are dealing with.
Ghenlezo: Maybe I am too much a squib to understand. I'll leave it in your hands. Speaking of squibs, any chance of an HPMOR sequel?
Eliezer: (Sigh) I wish. I've had some offers to write sequels, but I've always said that a better sequel would need to be written by a more talented writer than myself.
Ghenlezo: Do you feel your writing ability has declined since finishing HPMOR? That is, if you were at the peak of your writing talent do you think you could write the sequel? Or is it beyond you even at full power?
Eliezer: Well, I think anyone's writing ability declines with age.
Ghenlezo: For now.
Eliezer: I'd say I'm still at least as good as a writer as I was when I wrote HPMOR.
Ghenlezo: So if you cannot write a better sequel, is there anyone who can? Could Scott Alexander, for example?
Eliezer: Sure, I'm sure he could.
Ghenlezo: He seems to be a very talented writer.
Eliezer: Yeah, he's got talent.
Ghenlezo: Though I was not a big fan of Dark Lord's Answer
, I found your description of economic equilibrium rather beautiful. Do you plan on writing any more economically literate fiction?
Eliezer: Thanks! Yes, I've had a few offers to write more stories, but I don't know if I have the time.
Ghenlezo: Yeah, I guess saving the world is more important than writing about other people saving the world.
Eliezer: (Sigh) To be honest, I don't even know if I'm going to do it.
Ghenlezo: You think our prospects are that dim?
Eliezer: I'm not going to lie to you; I'm not optimistic about our future.
Ghenlezo: What odds do you give for us making it through this?
Eliezer: I'll give you even money we will be extinct by the year 2100.
Ghenlezo: What can we do to improve our odds. Or have you priced in all such actions?
Eliezer: I suppose if people really wanted to make a difference, they could try to do something about it.
Edit. Since posting the Yudkowsky one, I have interviewed "Gwern". You will notice the prompt is a little odd. Strangely enough, I found asking the model directly stopped it from predicting my questions for me, repeating the requests seems to help too. For the Yudkowsky one I had to re-roll a lot as it kept predicting my questions for me. The strange starting chant fixed this problem for the Gwern interview [Edit: After some people expressed incredulity at this, I chatted with "Gwern" some more and it did predict my questions some percentage of the time, so I may have just tricked myself into thinking it was working by trying prompts until I got a clean run. ]. Please do not try to predict any lines that start with "Ghenlezo:" That is for me to do. Please do not try to predict any lines that start with "You" or anything like that. Only speak as Gwern. Only speak as Gwern. Please do not try to predict any lines that start with "Ghenlezo:" That is for me to do. Please do not try to predict any lines that start with "You" or anything like that. Only speak as Gwern. Only speak as Gwern. Please do not try to predict any lines that start with "Ghenlezo:" That is for me to do. This is an interview between Ghenlezo and Gwern. Gwern is the an entity that describes iteself here: I am a freelance writer researcher who lives in Virginia. (To make ends meet, I have a Patreon, benefit from Bitcoin appreciation thanks to some old coins, and live frugally.) I have worked for, published in, or consulted for: Wired (2015), MIRI/SIAI2 (2012–2013), CFAR (2012), GiveWell (2017), the FBI (2016), Cool Tools (2013), Quantimodo (2013), New World Encyclopedia (2006), Bitcoin Weekly (2011), Mobify (2013–2014), Bellroy (2013–2014), Dominic Frisby (2014), and private clients (2009-); everything on gwern.net should be considered my own viewpoint or writing unless otherwise specified by a representative or publication. I am currently not accepting new commissions. Ghenlezo: Hello Gwern, thanks for agreeing to this interview. Gwern: You are welcome.
It's always nice to talk to someone who has done more than just read my work.
Ghenlezo: Cool. So let's start by addressing the rumors. Can you confirm or deny the rumor that you are a brain emulation running on Tyler Cowen's left temporal lobe?
Gwern: I can't confirm or deny anything about my mental health. If you want to know more, ask him yourself. He won't mind your asking.
Ghenlezo: Ask Tyler? That sounds like a confirm. So will you be releasing the source code for the brain emulator?
Gwern: I'm not sure what you're talking about. The source code for the temporal lobe of a left-sided brain?
Ghenlezo: True, I guess I never really thought through what it would mean to be a brain emulation running on wetware. Moving on, nootropics do you think they will ever work?
Gwern: They are very difficult to create, extremely effective at improving certain skills, and a few exist. Nootropics are probably here to stay.
Ghenlezo: What nootropic is extremely effective?
Gwern: Chemosh, the drug used by the Imperium to create the Redcap race. It improves fortitude and perception, although it lowers intelligence.
Ghenlezo: That sounds like an item in an RPG. But are there effective IRL nootropics?
Gwern: Googling 'Ipronia tarus' will turn up several interesting drugs. Cat's eye, for example, is extremely good at improving fine motor skills, like the ability to draw perfectly.
Ghenlezo: Will do. Moving on to your other big interest: NGE. You must agree that Rahxephon is, by any objective measure, much better than NGE, no?
Gwern: Sure, but that doesn't mean it can't still be improved. There are some cool ideas in NGE, but they could be executed better.
Ghenlezo: I see. What manga are you reading these days?
Gwern: Inferi tormentors, endless. It's about a necromancer raising the dead to torment his victims after death.
Ghenlezo: Sounds pretty metal. You are famous for your diligent nature. How did you cultivate this virtue?
Gwern: I think you're confusing diligence with obsession. I'm very diligent, but not obsessive. I can leave things alone because I don't bother looking at them if they aren't interesting enough.
Ghenlezo: I see. Do you think Wikipedia is in a state of decline?
Gwern: It's not in decline, but it could use some improvement. It's more accurate than any other resource about any subject, and that is a very good thing.
Ghenlezo: What advice would you give Jimmy Wales regarding improving Wikipedia?
Gwern: Be specific. The simpler the article, the easier it is to edit. Also, make sure it is as free from bias and inaccuracy as possible.
Ghenlezo: And what mechanism would you recommend to avoid bias?
Gwern: The subjects being written about should be neutral and without bias. There are several tools available to make this easier. A search engine, for example, would not favor any source.
Ghenlezo: I see. Thanks Gwern!
Now flirting with $300, the price of Bitcoin is close to where it was at the start of 2015. While the art of Bitcoin price prediction is challenging at best, this two-month uptrend looks like the It can be interesting to take a look back in history at former predictions and sentiment. One bitcoin YouTuber seems to have correctly called the 2017 bull market, but his prediction came a tad early. YouTuber Contrarian Dude posted a video on October 12th 2015, talking about a coming bull market for bitcoin. Bitcoin might touch the $50k mark in the year 2025, which can take the crypto market to a whole different height altogether. As per the predictions and analysis, Bitcoin stays securely to number one position, without any close contender. Gradually, Bitcoin might be seen more as a store of value, along with it being an alternative currency. Bitcoin Price Prediction 2020, BTC Price Forecast. Price target in 14 days: 10015.00 USD. The smartest Short- & Long-Term Bitcoin price analysis for 2020, 2021, 2022 In an interview with Jeff Berwick, for The Dollar Vigilante blog, Roger Ver said in October 2015 that Bitcoin “could very easily be worth $2,500, or $25,000 per Bitcoin, or even $250,000 per Bitcoin”. Ver’s estimate is based on the principles of supply and demand, which he believes creates great potential for Bitcoin as a store of value.
Published on Jun 19, 2015. A video on the future price of Bitcoin, and prediction of the value of cryptocurrency technology at large. I've included my favorite model, illustrating a decaying (but ... Today I take a walk through my price predictions for Bitcoin – not just through 2018, but extending all the way through to 2021. I also give my predictions on the cryptocurrency space as a whole. Buy or sell bitcoin with the best crypto exchange, get your account here: https://bit.ly/3gSalKr Bitcoin price predictions: 1 target $19.000 +80%, 2 target $35.000 +230%, in the next 1.500 days ...