What Happened to Bitcoin and What Happens Next?

Today in History 02/08





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[Table] IAmA: Hi I'm Marc Chaikin a stock market analyst who has 45 years of Wall Street experience and built the Chaikin Power Gauge rating as a GPS for investors and traders AMA!

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Date: 2014-06-02
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Questions Answers
I am not a smart man, so I have never really understood the purpose of Wall Street. Why does it exist? What do investors/stockbrokers/all those guys do? Can you recommend some reading material that may ease me towards understanding the complicated world you live in? You are avery smart man because you asked a good question. Wall Street exists to raise capital for companys to startup, grow and expand...what complicates this is when WS veers away from that role and gets into crazy stuff like what caused the financial collapse of 2008...Read anything by John Bogle who started Vanguard Funds and makes more sense than 10 of any other authors.
What is your opinion of cryptocurrency? Does it have a significant future? If you mean Bitcoin I think it has a future but only after there is a shake out with the early adopters being replaced by other players...sort of like search engines in the 1990's but much moreserious because money is changing hands
Could you explain that differently? There were many search engines in the late 1990's but eventually Google won out...with BitCoin the same thing will likely happen as the good and bad exchanges for virtual currency evolve, a stable, trusted winner will emerge.
What is some frightening fact that most people don't know about wall street? Clients often know more than their advisors.
1) I'm just a scrub, but since next week I'll start to work for Deutsche Bank in the wealth management unit, do you have any suggestion for someone heading in the IB world? Find a mentor at DB so you can advance up the learning curve. HFT I'm only concerned if someone is doing something illegal but mosy High Frequency trading is not illegal just a smart computer geek with an edge.
I am very interested in stocks and trading! I have heard "everyone has blown up at least once"; Can you tell us about your very early days of investing? any lessons learned about early mistakes? I did well early on which is not good...better to blow up early and then learn from your mistakes. The way to avoid blowing up is to not fall in love with your stocks and to never risk more than 2% of your capital on any given trade or investment...playing defense is what most people never do..we're all looking for the next big winner but I've learned how important playing defense is.
Hey Mark! I'm a junior in high school and I'm thinking of studying a major in economics and one day work on Wall Street. Do you reccommend it? Hows the job market for being a stock broker? Whats the pay like? Am I choosing a suitable major? What minors would be good to accompany my major? I do recommend it. The stock market can be an exciting career for a lifetime. Minor in philosophy or computer science.
I'm going to see an investment banker with my future wife tomorrow. We have about $15,000 USD to invest. What questions should we be asking if our 6 year goal is to own a home? What type of accounts should we be looking at? What is the lowest cost way to invest without taking a lot of risk...He should be asking the questions to determine your goals and risk tolerance.
What in the world is going on with AGN? Two powerful forces, a drug company and a large hedge want AGN and Botox their main product...they just raised their hostile bid for the company today.
Here's what the Chaikin Power Gauge rating looks like on AGN Link to app.chaikinpowertools.com
Any thoughts on what will happen. I currently have AGN. Botox yes but what about the eye sight drug AGN is working on. There will be a series of hostile actions by Valeant and Pershing Square hedge fund who want to own the company. You are in a great position...the stock should go higher as they turn up the heat...It'l be hard for AGN to stay independent now the the sharks are circling but in this case your in the drivers seat.
What is the easiest way for someone to make money with the Stock Market? Let's say with a $1,000 start up fund? There is no easy way to make money in the stock market. Having said that you can make money by investing over the long haul in index mutual funds combined with stocks of companies you know and respect...the surest way to lose money is to be influenced by the headlines and the talking heads on TV.
Is Cramer from Mad Money a talking head? Yes he is but a little smarter than most...
Do you think Quants and algo traders will become continuously more important on Wall St.? Quants yes...that's what I'm doing ..Algo traders have been around for 20 years and their importance has come and gone...for the stock market to function well it needs individual investors not computers trading with other computers. So let's hope algo traders don't become more important. Quants are important because we take the emotion out of the investment decision and if our research has been done well add value through better performance.
Okay thanks. What about the derivatives trader? They will always be there in the shadows because if you know how to do that you don't want to share that knowledge...too valuable.
What's you're perfect lunch? Salad nicoise but I actually prefer dinner because I can drink some red wine...if I do that at lunch I'd fall asleep at my desk.
Why is the Stock Market so unpredictable? The stock market is unpredictable because it represents the collective emotions of millions of investors and there is a pendulum which swings from fear to greed. Prices tend to plummet overnight because investors in the U.S. respond to what has happened overnight in Europe and Asia. If this happens it is usually a good time to go the other way because the emotional response is usually wrong.
can you please explain to me how stock prices can absolutely plummet over night? Pretend I'm 5 years old and don't understand anything about anything. If you were my 5 year old and heard thunder and lightening I give you a hug and tell you everything is ok...that works in the stock market as well.
Marc, I'm long some NFLX. Closed at $422, where do you see the next major resistance level? Good pick...resistance is at the old highs in February at 455.
Thanks. Long from ~$170, so just holding on for the ride now. That's a great ride..be sure to protect that profit in case the world changes.
Can I have high powered business job pls? thanks. I've been looking for that for 48 years :). In Wall Street for me high powered means doing better than average and having clients who recognize and appreciate that.
I'm currently a junior in high school, and I want to go into business. Is there anything you recommend I do? Like an online course, or an internship or something? Any help is appreciated! Internship at a local firm or start up in the finacial space is the best way to learn
Well howdy! Will investors increasing dependence on market estimating software skew investing away from optimal allocation? Or As more people follow the software will the stocks recommended by the software be artificially inflated as a consequence? Do you foresee software hacking our general corruption of the software to increase a stock value? Great question...we actually had some of that in the late 90's internal bubble with chat rooms and the like. Social estimating sites are actually a good step in my opinion but most of the current computer robo-advisors are not recommending stocks but rather ETFs which are baskets of stocks...all in all I think technology is a net plus for the average investor.
What's the easiest automated strategy that still works? The only automated strategy that works is to invest equal dollar amounts each month into a diversified mutual fund in good markets and bad...that way over time you'll see your retirement dollars grow with the economy and take advantage of the long-term effects of compunding.
Hey Marc, as somebody not totally informed about wall street and trading, what are your thoughts on websites and programs like scotttrade and the likes? Thanks a lot! Scottrade is a highly respected online discount broker. Fiancial websites like Yahoo Finance and Google Fiance and Nasdaq.com provide information for investors. Scottrade also has information. If you take the time these sites can help you find profitable investments.
Whats the sleaziest move you've seen a broker make during your time on Wall Street? I haven't been around brokers for years but in the old days coming back from a 3 martini lunch and then calling clients to sell them stock that the brokerage firm was looking to move is a good example.
Do you actually believe technical analysis works? What are your strongest arguments against people who say it doesn't? Trends persist in the markets and technical analysis is good atpicking up trends...also Money coming in and out can be measured by indicators like Chaikin Money Flow which you can see for free on Stockcharts.com.
In your opinion, what will be the cause of the stock market's next 1929 type crash? Not sure we'll get one as we had it in 2008 but the Federal Reserve did a good job in my opinion of averting a depression. Crashes like 1929 develop from investors using too much leverage and taking the markets to extremes. Usually crashes come when too many people are on the same side of the boat and sometimes come out of no where...If the markets reflect human emotions then crashes come when greed overwhelms fear but if the causes were knowable we wouldn't have them.
What do you think? Will the EUR stay strong or will we get in major trouble due to the ongoing problems in Europe? Euro was under pressure today because weak economic numbers out of Germany puts pressure on the European Central Bank to stimulate their economies...this helps the dollar and hurts the euro.
Thanks for your opinion. Do you think the low interest rate level in Europe will increase soon or do we have to expect it on a long-term level? (24-36 months) That's the $64 question...it looks like interest rates will stay low world wide for a good 12-18 months...there would have to be robust economic growth in the U.S., Europe and Asia to see rates move up dramatically.
It's very hard to predict interest rates more than 6-12 months out and anyone who says they can is probably kidding himself.
Hi Marc, quick question if you're still answering. I know I'm late to the party. I'm in finance and am considering making a run at the street after getting my cfa. Do you have any general advice for me? Find a niche where you are comfortable, research, wealth management sales and find a firm that will educate you and a mentor within the firm.
So, where does the money go/come from? If I hand a stock broker $10 and tell him to invest it and then what he invests in tanks to no value, who gets that $10 bill? It's a physical object, so it can't disappear. Who has the legal rights to own it? It's your money and should be in an insured account to protect against fraud not losses. There is a clearing house much like the way checks are cleared, so the $100 doesn't go to the person you bought the stock from it just exists in the clearing house...very good question!
I used to listen to a radio show hosted by Ric Edelmen ( I think that's how you spell it) on the way to a class I was taking, and he always pushed Exchange Traded Funds a lot. I did some research in them as I had never heard of them before that, and they seem to be sound financial tools, but I was wondering what your opinions were on them? I like exchange traded funds, in fact we expect that there will be a few Nasdaq/Chaikin ETFs in the near future but I also think that with a little work and the right tools you can add good stocks to the mix. Example would be to find an ETF that is outperformiong the market and then find the 3 best stocks in that ETF to buy.
How important do you think Marker Makers are in today's markets? Does adding liquidity to a market justify the profits they are able to make? Market makers have become irrelevant with computerized executions.
I have a burning passion to become a trader, however the long hours in Investment Banking kinda scare me, are there any other options to become a trader without having to work such long hours? Investment banking and trading are two different professions. Trading basically allows you to have well defined hours. If you do it for yourself even more flexibility but find a coach or mentor who is successful...best training in the world.
EXAS every one sells sell yes it has dropped in last several day but in the long run will Cologuard makes this a good move? Colon Cancer is serious and early detection is important...if their genomics based appraoch works that's a big plus...stock has had a hard time getting above 15...if it close above that level you'll know it's on its way.
Are we past due a market correction, or will the Fed's quantitative easing hold it off for a while? A correction is long over due but everyone has been saying that...when it comes people will have become complacent and a correction will come as a surprise probably triggered by an event that no one was anticipating.
What do you think about Precious metals silver and gold? Anyone in the investing world I've talked to doesn't favor them but i love having some physical silver. Gold is not going up in a low inflation low interest rate environment...silver being an industrial commodity would benefit from better economic activity in China and other emerging markets.
Hi, I'm an incoming college freshman and was wondering about going into IB. Do you have any advice as to what to study or when/how I should get financial internships? Thanks! See if their is an investment club at your college or find a finance professor and offer to do research for him...hands on experience is the best teacher.
Hi Marc, I some how fell into a job in the steel industry. Long story. None the less, I would like to learn as much as possible regarding the trading of the commodities that I sell. (knowledegable salesmen are a dying breed!) You know, bring a bit of value to the table when I talk to customers. Is there any one place that you would point me to gain a more complete understanding of this process? Thanks Marc! Yes look at the annual report of U.S. Steel or Nucor. You can find them on Yahoo Finance with a link to annual reports.
So, what's the most you have made and most you have lost over a single investment. Most made $2 million ( in my own company) $250k in public stocks.
Most lost $100k.
Last updated: 2014-06-07 05:27 UTC
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