submitted by Crypto_Browser to CryptoBrowser_EN [link] [comments]
Chainlink’s 95% Weekly Price Surge May Indicate The Start Of An Altcoin Season
Despite that Bitcoin marks one of its longest non-volatile periods, Chainlink (LINK) makes another move into the green, with a 26% price increase in the past 24 hours. Chainlink also recorded a new all-time high of $8.40, before correcting to $7.85, as of press time. Тhe most recent price increase managed to boost LINK’s position in CoinMarketCap’s market capitalization chart to reach 10th place, surpassing projects like EOS, Tezos (XTZ), and Stellar (XLM).
Looking three months back, Chainlink’s price increased with 128%, with an almost tri-fold price boost since the March 12 “Black Thursday” global market wipeout. Since the start of 2020, Link’s price is up with 339%, making it one of the best-performing cryptocurrencies in 2020.
The reason behind Chainlink’s massive price boost is the series of partnerships LINK sеcured with DeFi projects. Many of the DeFi projects need some kind of real-time price quotations, and Chainlink offers to them decentralized oracle network services. In just a week, Chainlink announced a series of key partnerships with companies like Kyber Network, Nexo Finance, REN protocol, Conflux Network and Bancor.
The list of partnerships, combined with the bullish market stance on DeFi projects, may push LINK’s price above the $10 mark. But in order for LINK’s price to spike above 10$, Chainlink has to continue the successful partnership streak.
Crypto experts like Josh Rager commented on the recent market situation, showing support for Chainlink in a Bitcoin-dominated crypto sector. Rager, who is co-founder of crypto learning platform Blockroots, and an official advisor to few blockchain startups, stated that Bitcoin maximalists should consider focusing their sight towards altcoins, because Bitcoin shows little to no movement.
„Bitcoin is moving in a $1000 range, while Chainlink exploded from $3.65 to $8.50+”, Rager tweeted.
Another crypto expert, Cole Garner, joined Josh Rager’s opinion, highlighting LINK had its first candle closed above the trendline, which may be the start for a parabolic movement. Crypto trader Scott Melker, known as “The Wolf of All Streets”, posted a graph on Twitter, showing exponential growth for LINK since its inception to present day. “The most-bullish crypto-asset I have seen in a long time,” Melker noted.
However, Santiment – a crypto-focused behavior analytics company, stated that after such massive price gains, a “-9% retracement is commonly evident in the 12 days after being #1 on our Emerging Trends list.”
Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s dominance retracted slightly, which further fueled the altcoin bulls, resulting in larger trading volumes for some of the projects.
Chainlink (LINK) is currently the most popular Defi project.submitted by jakkkmotivator to thecryptobasic [link] [comments]
The LINK rate has almost doubled in the past 3 weeks and hit a new all-time high of $ 8.48. As a result, the market capitalization rose briefly to over $ 2.5 billion and placed LINK in 8th place at CoinMarketCap.
Of course, many are wondering how such a sharp rise in share prices could occur.
Therefore, today we take a closer look at the possible reasons for the strong LINK Pump.
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Basically, there are currently three main factors that have led to the LINK price increase.
This includes the human psychology of pricing, high-profile partnerships, and a generally strong dynamic in the altcoin market.
In addition, the increasing trading volume may have fueled the LINK price increase.
Chainlink pricingThen on July 6th, the time had come.
The LINK price exceeded its previous record high of $ 5.31 and entered the pricing phase.
This phase leads to FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out) in most markets.
The way up is clear and has no natural resistance that could be identified by technical chart analysis.
Exactly this fact leads to the fact that many speculators get in and fear to miss something, are almost ready to pay any price.
Therefore the current Chainlink price increase could be irrational and encounter a hard correction.
Within the last seven days, after the old all-time high was broken, the price exploded by over 40%, rising from $ 5.31 to $ 8.48.
The LINK price is currently around USD 7.76.
The trading volume of LINK also rose to a level that has not been observed since April 2020.
At that point, the bitcoins price recovered from its strong sell-off to around $ 3,750.
During this period, the demand for cryptocurrencies from retail investors rose by leaps and bounds. Some analysts believe that the LINK price could rise to USD 10 in the next few weeks.
However, this statement should be treated with caution.
Partnerships stimulate businessOver the course of this year, Chainlink has entered into many high-profile partnerships with companies in the crypto sector. Chainlink partnered with Nexo on July 8th. Nexo is a crypto credit company with around 800,000 users. Chainlink is to make its Oracle solutions available to the company. Chainlink co-founder Sergey Nazarov said:
We are excited to bring Chainlink's secure and reliable Oracle solutions to Nexo's popular credit platform so users can independently check the interest rate and collateral rates they should receive on the blockchain.
Over the past two months, Chainlink has partnered with blockchain projects and companies like Matic Network and Hedera Hashgraph. Chainlink was also mentioned in a Google blog post entitled Building hybrid blockchain/cloud applications with Ethereum and Google Cloud.
LINK does not miss a partnership and therefore remains on everyone's lips.
Feels like every major crypto company is already included as a partner. This attracts a lot of attention and thus increases interest in Chainlink.
Altcoin and Defi Momentum bring LINK upThe Altcoin market has shown its strong side in recent weeks. While the Bitcoin price was rather sideways, some altcoins have exploded. Chainlink is just the tip of the iceberg. Many other projects, especially from the Defi Space, were able to grow properly.
DeFi is on everyone's lips and investors are looking for the next “insider tip” to quickly make a few 100%.
The crypto market is becoming increasingly irrational and money is being thrown from one project to the next. It is strongly reminiscent of 2017 and 2018 at the ICO hype.
The strong hype and greed can be felt and makes a timely correction more and more likely.
Many are already talking about an Altcoin Season and are currently seeing LINK and many other Altcoin projects outperforming BTC. How long the situation lasts and whether further profits can be achieved with LINK is in the stars.
But you should keep in mind that Chainlink has increased by over 450% in the last 3-4 months. This could lead to strong correction.
In the past two months, we have seen a significant decline in bitcoin dominance, While the value on May 15 was still 69.60%, it fell to around 62.60% by yesterday's Sunday.submitted by jakkkmotivator to thecryptobasic [link] [comments]
So that means that many altcoins perform better than BTC.
However, in view of the more than 5000 altcoins, the question of which coins should now outperform Bitcoin naturally arises.
The spectrum ranges from the well-known alts such as Ethereum to the new top performers like Chainlink.
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In this article, let's take a look at an analysis by Santiment and see why they think Ethereum (ETH), Chainlink (LINK), and Ren (REN) could beat Bitcoin.
Santiment underlines the feeling of the Altcoin seasonFirst of all, the Santiment report presented is about a so-called short-term outlook.
This means that all statements refer to a short-term period. And for this short-term period, the analysis company now sees the altcoins ETH, Link, and REN at the forefront.
The report begins with a brief summary of the situation.
While the Bitcoin price is largely still in the price range of $ 9,000 - $ 9,500, many altcoins, in particular, have seen strong increases.
Santiment sees the greatest potential here at Chainlink (LINK).
Chainlink as a winner in front of Ethereum and RENIn the report presented, Santiment uses 3 indicators to assess the short-term situation of the altcoins. Chainlink sees this in the first place.
In addition to the positive indicators, the company also attests to the token based on the Ethereum Blockchain a bullish signal through the use in the context of China's National Blockchain Service Network (BSN).
After this news was published on July 8, the LINK course saw strong growth.
Let's take a quick look at the chart:
We can see from the 30-day chart that the price of Chainlink rose from around USD 4 to USD 6 at the beginning.
This makes LINK one of the best performers of the past 30 days.
Ethereum and REN are further candidatesIn addition, the company says that they see Ethereum and REN as additional candidates for outperformance. As already mentioned, 3 indicators were considered for this.
Now let's take a look at the ones behind it. Then, of course, we also look at the values for the individual altcoins.
NVT, DAA and Sentiment Volume Consumed as indicators
The first indicator examined is the Network Value to Transactions Ratio (NVT).
This is a metric that relates the volume of transactions divided by the number of coins/tokens in circulation to market capitalization. This is done over a period of time. In our case, that's the 3-day average.
The second indicator is the daily active addresses in relation to price divergence. Simply put, the price dynamic is set in relation to the number of active addresses.
You can find more information here. The third parameter is called Sentiment Volume Consumed. This is about the measured “sentiment” on Twitter.
Now let's look at the ratings for Bitcoin, Ethereum, LINK, and REN.
The company assigned a numerical value of 0-10 for each indicator, which varies between maximum bearish (0) and maximum bullish (10).
LINK before Ethereum, REN, and Bitcoin: the resultsLet's start with the top dog Bitcoin. BTC received only a value of 2 for the indicator NVT. The DAA value was 5 and the value for Sentiment Volume Consumed was 6.5. This gives a total value of 4.5, which Santiment sees as a neutral rating.
Ethereum itself receives 5 points for NVT, 8 points for DAA, and 7.5 for SVC. This results in a total value of 6.8. Santiment rates this as bullish. Ethereum got the second-best total after Chainlink.
LINK itself received 9 points in the NVT area. 5.5 points were awarded for DAA and 7 points for SVC. This gives a value of 7.2.
REN received 8 points in NVT, 7.5 in DAA, and only 3.5 in SVC. This gives a total value of 6.3, which is still bullish overall.
Conclusion: Short-term outperformance possible
Santiment's report shows that the 3 cryptocurrencies Ethereum, Chainlink, and Ren offer the short-term potential to outperform the top cryptocurrency Bitcoin. However, it is important to understand that these figures only give a short-term outlook and therefore do not constitute a long-term trading recommendation.
﷽submitted by aibnsamin1 to Bitcoin [link] [comments]
The Federal Reserve and the United States government are pumping extreme amounts of money into the economy, already totaling over $484 billion. They are doing so because it already had a goal to inflate the United States Dollar (USD) so that the market can continue to all-time highs. It has always had this goal. They do not care how much inflation goes up by now as we are going into a depression with the potential to totally crash the US economy forever. They believe the only way to save the market from going to zero or negative values is to inflate it so much that it cannot possibly crash that low. Even if the market does not dip that low, inflation serves the interest of powerful people.
The impending crash of the stock market has ramifications for Bitcoin, as, though there is no direct ongoing-correlation between the two, major movements in traditional markets will necessarily affect Bitcoin. According to the Blockchain Center’s Cryptocurrency Correlation Tool, Bitcoin is not correlated with the stock market. However, when major market movements occur, they send ripples throughout the financial ecosystem which necessary affect even ordinarily uncorrelated assets.
Therefore, Bitcoin will reach X price on X date after crashing to a price of X by X date.
Stock Market CrashThe Federal Reserve has caused some serious consternation with their release of ridiculous amounts of money in an attempt to buoy the economy. At face value, it does not seem to have any rationale or logic behind it other than keeping the economy afloat long enough for individuals to profit financially and politically. However, there is an underlying basis to what is going on which is important to understand in order to profit financially.
All markets are functionally price probing systems. They constantly undergo a price-discovery process. In a fiat system, money is an illusory and a fundamentally synthetic instrument with no intrinsic value – similar to Bitcoin. The primary difference between Bitcoin is the underlying technology which provides a slew of benefits that fiat does not. Fiat, however, has an advantage in being able to have the support of powerful nation-states which can use their might to insure the currency’s prosperity.
Traditional stock markets are composed of indices (pl. of index). Indices are non-trading market instruments which are essentially summaries of business values which comprise them. They are continuously recalculated throughout a trading day, and sometimes reflected through tradable instruments such as Exchange Traded Funds or Futures. Indices are weighted by market capitalizations of various businesses.
Price theory essentially states that when a market fails to take out a new low in a given range, it will have an objective to take out the high. When a market fails to take out a new high, it has an objective to make a new low. This is why price-time charts go up and down, as it does this on a second-by-second, minute-by-minute, day-by-day, and even century-by-century basis. Therefore, market indices will always return to some type of bull market as, once a true low is formed, the market will have a price objective to take out a new high outside of its’ given range – which is an all-time high. Instruments can only functionally fall to zero, whereas they can grow infinitely.
So, why inflate the economy so much?
Deflation is disastrous for central banks and markets as it raises the possibility of producing an overall price objective of zero or negative values. Therefore, under a fractional reserve system with a fiat currency managed by a central bank – the goal of the central bank is to depreciate the currency. The dollar is manipulated constantly with the intention of depreciating its’ value.
Central banks have a goal of continued inflated fiat values. They tend to ordinarily contain it at less than ten percent (10%) per annum in order for the psyche of the general populace to slowly adjust price increases. As such, the markets are divorced from any other logic. Economic policy is the maintenance of human egos, not catering to fundamental analysis. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth is well-known not to be a measure of actual growth or output. It is a measure of increase in dollars processed. Banks seek to produce raising numbers which make society feel like it is growing economically, making people optimistic. To do so, the currency is inflated, though inflation itself does not actually increase growth. When society is optimistic, it spends and engages in business – resulting in actual growth. It also encourages people to take on credit and debts, creating more fictional fiat.
Inflation is necessary for markets to continue to reach new heights, generating positive emotional responses from the populace, encouraging spending, encouraging debt intake, further inflating the currency, and increasing the sale of government bonds. The fiat system only survives by generating more imaginary money on a regular basis.
Bitcoin investors may profit from this by realizing that stock investors as a whole always stand to profit from the market so long as it is managed by a central bank and does not collapse entirely. If those elements are filled, it has an unending price objective to raise to new heights. It also allows us to realize that this response indicates that the higher-ups believe that the economy could crash in entirety, and it may be wise for investors to have multiple well-thought-out exit strategies.
Economic Analysis of BitcoinThe reason why the Fed is so aggressively inflating the economy is due to fears that it will collapse forever or never rebound. As such, coupled with a global depression, a huge demand will appear for a reserve currency which is fundamentally different than the previous system. Bitcoin, though a currency or asset, is also a market. It also undergoes a constant price-probing process. Unlike traditional markets, Bitcoin has the exact opposite goal. Bitcoin seeks to appreciate in value and not depreciate. This has a quite different affect in that Bitcoin could potentially become worthless and have a price objective of zero.
Bitcoin was created in 2008 by a now famous mysterious figure known as Satoshi Nakamoto and its’ open source code was released in 2009. It was the first decentralized cryptocurrency to utilize a novel protocol known as the blockchain. Up to one megabyte of data may be sent with each transaction. It is decentralized, anonymous, transparent, easy to set-up, and provides myriad other benefits. Bitcoin is not backed up by anything other than its’ own technology.
Bitcoin is can never be expected to collapse as a framework, even were it to become worthless. The stock market has the potential to collapse in entirety, whereas, as long as the internet exists, Bitcoin will be a functional system with a self-authenticating framework. That capacity to persist regardless of the actual price of Bitcoin and the deflationary nature of Bitcoin means that it has something which fiat does not – inherent value.
Bitcoin is based on a distributed database known as the “blockchain.” Blockchains are essentially decentralized virtual ledger books, replete with pages known as “blocks.” Each page in a ledger is composed of paragraph entries, which are the actual transactions in the block.
Blockchains store information in the form of numerical transactions, which are just numbers. We can consider these numbers digital assets, such as Bitcoin. The data in a blockchain is immutable and recorded only by consensus-based algorithms. Bitcoin is cryptographic and all transactions are direct, without intermediary, peer-to-peer.
Bitcoin does not require trust in a central bank. It requires trust on the technology behind it, which is open-source and may be evaluated by anyone at any time. Furthermore, it is impossible to manipulate as doing so would require all of the nodes in the network to be hacked at once – unlike the stock market which is manipulated by the government and “Market Makers”. Bitcoin is also private in that, though the ledge is openly distributed, it is encrypted. Bitcoin’s blockchain has one of the greatest redundancy and information disaster recovery systems ever developed.
Bitcoin has a distributed governance model in that it is controlled by its’ users. There is no need to trust a payment processor or bank, or even to pay fees to such entities. There are also no third-party fees for transaction processing. As the ledge is immutable and transparent it is never possible to change it – the data on the blockchain is permanent. The system is not easily susceptible to attacks as it is widely distributed. Furthermore, as users of Bitcoin have their private keys assigned to their transactions, they are virtually impossible to fake. No lengthy verification, reconciliation, nor clearing process exists with Bitcoin.
Bitcoin is based on a proof-of-work algorithm. Every transaction on the network has an associated mathetical “puzzle”. Computers known as miners compete to solve the complex cryptographic hash algorithm that comprises that puzzle. The solution is proof that the miner engaged in sufficient work. The puzzle is known as a nonce, a number used only once. There is only one major nonce at a time and it issues 12.5 Bitcoin. Once it is solved, the fact that the nonce has been solved is made public.
A block is mined on average of once every ten minutes. However, the blockchain checks every 2,016,000 minutes (approximately four years) if 201,600 blocks were mined. If it was faster, it increases difficulty by half, thereby deflating Bitcoin. If it was slower, it decreases, thereby inflating Bitcoin. It will continue to do this until zero Bitcoin are issued, projected at the year 2140. On the twelfth of May, 2020, the blockchain will halve the amount of Bitcoin issued when each nonce is guessed. When Bitcoin was first created, fifty were issued per block as a reward to miners. 6.25 BTC will be issued from that point on once each nonce is solved.
Unlike fiat, Bitcoin is a deflationary currency. As BTC becomes scarcer, demand for it will increase, also raising the price. In this, BTC is similar to gold. It is predictable in its’ output, unlike the USD, as it is based on a programmed supply. We can predict BTC’s deflation and inflation almost exactly, if not exactly. Only 21 million BTC will ever be produced, unless the entire network concedes to change the protocol – which is highly unlikely.
Some of the drawbacks to BTC include congestion. At peak congestion, it may take an entire day to process a Bitcoin transaction as only three to five transactions may be processed per second. Receiving priority on a payment may cost up to the equivalent of twenty dollars ($20). Bitcoin mining consumes enough energy in one day to power a single-family home for an entire week.
Trading or Investing?The fundamental divide in trading revolves around the question of market structure. Many feel that the market operates totally randomly and its’ behavior cannot be predicted. For the purposes of this article, we will assume that the market has a structure, but that that structure is not perfect. That market structure naturally generates chart patterns as the market records prices in time. In order to determine when the stock market will crash, causing a major decline in BTC price, we will analyze an instrument, an exchange traded fund, which represents an index, as opposed to a particular stock. The price patterns of the various stocks in an index are effectively smoothed out. In doing so, a more technical picture arises. Perhaps the most popular of these is the SPDR S&P Standard and Poor 500 Exchange Traded Fund ($SPY).
In trading, little to no concern is given about value of underlying asset. We are concerned primarily about liquidity and trading ranges, which are the amount of value fluctuating on a short-term basis, as measured by volatility-implied trading ranges. Fundamental analysis plays a role, however markets often do not react to real-world factors in a logical fashion. Therefore, fundamental analysis is more appropriate for long-term investing.
The fundamental derivatives of a chart are time (x-axis) and price (y-axis). The primary technical indicator is price, as everything else is lagging in the past. Price represents current asking price and incorrectly implementing positions based on price is one of the biggest trading errors.
Markets and currencies ordinarily have noise, their tendency to back-and-fill, which must be filtered out for true pattern recognition. That noise does have a utility, however, in allowing traders second chances to enter favorable positions at slightly less favorable entry points. When you have any market with enough liquidity for historical data to record a pattern, then a structure can be divined. The market probes prices as part of an ongoing price-discovery process. Market technicians must sometimes look outside of the technical realm and use visual inspection to ascertain the relevance of certain patterns, using a qualitative eye that recognizes the underlying quantitative nature
Markets and instruments rise slower than they correct, however they rise much more than they fall. In the same vein, instruments can only fall to having no worth, whereas they could theoretically grow infinitely and have continued to grow over time. Money in a fiat system is illusory. It is a fundamentally synthetic instrument which has no intrinsic value. Hence, the recent seemingly illogical fluctuations in the market.
According to trade theory, the unending purpose of a market or instrument is to create and break price ranges according to the laws of supply and demand. We must determine when to trade based on each market inflection point as defined in price and in time as opposed to abandoning the trend (as the contrarian trading in this sub often does). Time and Price symmetry must be used to be in accordance with the trend. When coupled with a favorable risk to reward ratio, the ability to stay in the market for most of the defined time period, and adherence to risk management rules; the trader has a solid methodology for achieving considerable gains.
We will engage in a longer term market-oriented analysis to avoid any time-focused pressure. The Bitcoin market is open twenty-four-hours a day, so trading may be done when the individual is ready, without any pressing need to be constantly alert. Let alone, we can safely project months in advance with relatively high accuracy. Bitcoin is an asset which an individual can both trade and invest, however this article will be focused on trading due to the wide volatility in BTC prices over the short-term.
Technical Indicator Analysis of BitcoinTechnical indicators are often considered self-fulfilling prophecies due to mass-market psychology gravitating towards certain common numbers yielded from them. They are also often discounted when it comes to BTC. That means a trader must be especially aware of these numbers as they can prognosticate market movements. Often, they are meaningless in the larger picture of things.
Trend Definition Analysis of BitcoinTrend definition is highly powerful, cannot be understated. Knowledge of trend logic is enough to be a profitable trader, yet defining a trend is an arduous process. Multiple trends coexist across multiple time frames and across multiple market sectors. Like time structure, it makes the underlying price of the instrument irrelevant. Trend definitions cannot determine the validity of newly formed discretes. Trend becomes apparent when trades based in counter-trend inflection points continue to fail.
Downtrends are defined as an instrument making lower lows and lower highs that are recurrent, additive, qualified swing setups. Downtrends for all instruments are similar, except forex. They are fast and complete much quicker than uptrends. An average downtrend is 18 months, something which we will return to. An uptrend inception occurs when an instrument reaches a point where it fails to make a new low, then that low will be tested. After that, the instrument will either have a deep range retracement or it may take out the low slightly, resulting in a double-bottom. A swing must eventually form.
A simple way to roughly determine trend is to attempt to draw a line from three tops going upwards (uptrend) or a line from three bottoms going downwards (downtrend). It is not possible to correctly draw a downtrend line on the BTC chart, but it is possible to correctly draw an uptrend – indicating that the overall trend is downwards. The only mitigating factor is the impending stock market crash.
Time Symmetry Analysis of BitcoinTime is the movement from the past through the present into the future. It is a measurement in quantified intervals. In many ways, our perception of it is a human construct. It is more powerful than price as time may be utilized for a trade regardless of the market inflection point’s price. Were it possible to perfectly understand time, price would be totally irrelevant due to the predictive certainty time affords. Time structure is easier to learn than price, but much more difficult to apply with any accuracy. It is the hardest aspect of trading to learn, but also the most rewarding.
Humans do not have the ability to recognize every time window, however the ability to define market inflection points in terms of time is the single most powerful trading edge. Regardless, price should not be abandoned for time alone. Time structure analysis It is inherently flawed, as such the markets have a fail-safe, which is Price Structure. Even though Time is much more powerful, Price Structure should never be completely ignored. Time is the qualifier for Price and vice versa. Time can fail by tricking traders into counter-trend trading.
Time is a predestined trade quantifier, a filter to slow trades down, as it allows a trader to specifically focus on specific time windows and rest at others. It allows for quantitative measurements to reach deterministic values and is the primary qualifier for trends. Time structure should be utilized before price structure, and it is the primary trade criterion which requires support from price. We can see price structure on a chart, as areas of mathematical support or resistance, but we cannot see time structure.
Time may be used to tell us an exact point in the future where the market will inflect, after Price Theory has been fulfilled. In the present, price objectives based on price theory added to possible future times for market inflection points give us the exact time of market inflection points and price.
Time Structure is repetitions of time or inherent cycles of time, occurring in a methodical way to provide time windows which may be utilized for inflection points. They are not easily recognized and not easily defined by a price chart as measuring and observing time is very exact. Time structure is not a science, yet it does require precise measurements. Nothing is certain or definite. The critical question must be if a particular approach to time structure is currently lucrative or not.
We will measure it in intervals of 180 bars. Our goal is to determine time windows, when the market will react and when we should pay the most attention. By using time repetitions, the fact that market inflection points occurred at some point in the past and should, therefore, reoccur at some point in the future, we should obtain confidence as to when SPY will reach a market inflection point. Time repetitions are essentially the market’s memory. However, simply measuring the time between two points then trying to extrapolate into the future does not work. Measuring time is not the same as defining time repetitions. We will evaluate past sessions for market inflection points, whether discretes, qualified swings, or intra-range. Then records the times that the market has made highs or lows in a comparable time period to the future one seeks to trade in.
What follows is a time Histogram – A grouping of times which appear close together, then segregated based on that closeness. Time is aligned into combined histogram of repetitions and cycles, however cycles are irrelevant on a daily basis. If trading on an hourly basis, do not use hours.
Evaluating the yearly lows, we see that BTC tends to have its lows primarily at the beginning of every year, with a possibility of it being at the end of the year. Following the same methodology, we get the middle of the month as the likeliest day. However, evaluating the monthly lows for the past year, the beginning and end of the month are more likely for lows.
Therefore, we have two primary dates from our histogram.
1/1/21, 1/15/21, and 1/29/21
2:00am, 8:00am, 12:00pm, or 10:00pm
In fact, the high for this year was February the 14th, only thirty days off from our histogram calculations.
The 8.6-Year Armstrong-Princeton Global Economic Confidence model states that 2.15 year intervals occur between corrections, relevant highs and lows. 2.15 years from the all-time peak discrete is February 9, 2020 – a reasonably accurate depiction of the low for this year (which was on 3/12/20). (Taking only the Armstrong model into account, the next high should be Saturday, April 23, 2022). Therefore, the Armstrong model indicates that we have actually bottomed out for the year!
Bear markets cannot exist in perpetuity whereas bull markets can. Bear markets will eventually have price objectives of zero, whereas bull markets can increase to infinity. It can occur for individual market instruments, but not markets as a whole. Since bull markets are defined by low volatility, they also last longer. Once a bull market is indicated, the trader can remain in a long position until a new high is reached, then switch to shorts. The average bear market is eighteen months long, giving us a date of August 19th, 2021 for the end of this bear market – roughly speaking. They cannot be shorter than fifteen months for a central-bank controlled market, which does not apply to Bitcoin. (Otherwise, it would continue until Sunday, September 12, 2021.) However, we should expect Bitcoin to experience its’ exponential growth after the stock market re-enters a bull market.
Terry Laundy’s T-Theory implemented by measuring the time of an indicator from peak to trough, then using that to define a future time window. It is similar to an head-and-shoulders pattern in that it is the process of forming the right side from a synthetic technical indicator. If the indicator is making continued lows, then time is recalculated for defining the right side of the T. The date of the market inflection point may be a price or indicator inflection date, so it is not always exactly useful. It is better to make us aware of possible market inflection points, clustered with other data. It gives us an RSI low of May, 9th 2020.
The Bradley Cycle is coupled with volatility allows start dates for campaigns or put options as insurance in portfolios for stocks. However, it is also useful for predicting market moves instead of terminal dates for discretes. Using dates which correspond to discretes, we can see how those dates correspond with changes in VIX.
Therefore, our timeline looks like:
submitted by __checkmatey__ to decred [link] [comments]
Insight 1 - Market-Realised GradientThe Decred blockchain has a consistent baseload of demand for block-space, a result of the PoS ticket system and, more recently, on-chain CoinJoin privacy transactions. As such, the Realised Price metric differs in interpretation to Bitcoin. A strong conviction Decred holder actually has a regular and frequent on-chain signature moving DCR as opposed to the equivalent of long periods of dormancy for Bitcoin.
The Realised Price tends to follow the spot price more closely, however lags behind the day-to-day fluctuations in off-chain price sentiment. The chart below presents an experimental metric that takes the 28-day gradient of the Market Cap and Realised Cap, and produces an oscillator from their difference (purple). This tool distills times where off-chain price momentum bias flips before the on-chain response as DCR is bound in tickets and takes time to transact. Where the oscillator crosses the zero level, it often precedes a shift in price momentum in the direction of the flip.\
Insight 2 - NVT and RVT RatioAs noted, Decred has a consistent transaction demand which also shows up as reliable NVT and RVT signals. These metrics take the ratio between network valuation (market cap or realised cap) and the adjusted daily transaction value flowing through the chain, all denominated in USD. The chart below presents the NVT and RVT both in 28-day and 90-day moving average format with sound agreement in trend and magnitude between all.
During periods of bullish sentiment, we can observe low NVT|RVT ratios indicating that the chain is settling a substantial value relative to its network valuation, and vice-versa indicates bearish sentiment. Of particular interest is the period of strong demand for on-chain settlement since Aug 2019 at which point the CoinJoin privacy mix server came live. This provides valuable feedback for the community and developers regarding actual demand for the mixing service, and also gives miners a basis for future fee market expectations.
Insight 3 - Cumulative Transaction VolumesDigging into transaction demand further, the area chart below shows the cumulative DCR settled on-chain through protocol history, divided into regular transactions (orange), ticket purchases (green) and CoinJoin mixes (red). The line charts to the right axis presents the daily transaction volume in DCR for ticket purchases and CoinJoins.
It can be seen that the gradient of the area plot has steepened since the privacy mix service went live, confirming increased demand for block-space. There has been a steady uptick in DCR flowing through the anonymity set with around 110k DCR mined in CoinJoin transactions per day. This represents around 0.96% of the total circulating DCR supply in CoinJoins, and is substantial when compared to the 192k DCR that are mined into tickets daily (1.67% of circ. supply).
Insight 4 - Decred Treasury FlowsThe Decred Treasury underpins the self-sovereign development of the protocol, and its accumulated value is subject to the market's pricing of DCR. To date, the treasury has spent a total of $7.625M bootstraping the network from genesis to now when pricing each outgoing transaction on the day of the spend. This represents around one third of the incoming DCR so far and 16% of the total DCR inflows that will occur via the block subsidy ending in year 2140.
Based on a current DCR coin price of $14/DCR, the Treasury is capitalized with enough USD value to build another Decred (assuming $7.625M build cost) and can repeat that metric for each $12 uplift in DCR price given the current Treasury balance of 636.3k DCR.
Insight 5 - Treasury Vote PowerFinally, an interesting metric to gauge stakeholder governance power is to look at how much Treasury value is governed by each ticket in the PoS pool. The chart below presents the Treasury balance divided by the count of tickets in the pool (red), showing that each ticket commands decision making power of around 15.5 DCR. If we divided this by the purchase price of a ticket denominated in DCR (blue), governance power typically represents around 11% of the ticket value. Given tickets vote on average every 28 days, this means governance power on an annualised basis is equivalent to 143% of a typical ticket in value.
60% of all bitcoin has not moved on the blockchain for at least 1 year. This is an indication of significant hodl'ing. The last time this happened was in early 2016, at the start of the bull run.
HUOBI – THE EXCHANGE BUILT FOR THE FUTUREsubmitted by VinayTM to HuobiGlobal [link] [comments]
A HONEST REVIEW BY AN USER
Leon Li founded Huobi in 2013, a former computer engineer at Oracle. Huobi Global is a digital asset and crypto currency exchange headquartered in Singapore. Huobi also has local exchanges in South Korea, Japan, and through its strategic partner, the United States.
The Huobi Group, the parent company of Huobi Global, has received venture capital finance from prominent Beijing based ZhenFund and American VC firm Sequoia Capital.
The Huobi Global exchange serves traders in 130 countries. Through Huobi Global, traders can access almost 200 crypto and stable coin assets. Huobi users can download trading clients on both mobile and desktop devices.
Huobi has traded over US$1.2 trillion in digital assets, and at one time it was the world’s leading exchange by volume, capturing 50% of all global trading volume.
In terms of security, Huobi has adopted a decentralized exchange structure, which helps to resist DDOS attacks. However, Huobi has implemented the ‘Huobi Security Reserve, in which Huobi has set aside 20,000 BTC reserved for users who have lost funds either due to hacks, or exchange failures.
Ease of use
The UI is clean, user-friendly and perfectly designed with all the basic requirements for a crypto-trader. The charting software is provided by Tradingview, which is exactly what you want.
Huobi’s OTC exchange is a good initiative. The Huobi OTC exchange allows users to trade funds peer-to-peer which doesn’t affect the market price of the underlying asset. The OTC trading-desk, with transfer options like bank-transfers, PayPal, WU, Paytm, UPI, IMPS, Alipay & many others, is an easy to use payment gateway. With a secure exchange to diversify your investment, right next door, too with effective list of Buy and Sell options for BTC, ETH, USDT and EOS coins.
Huobi Lite App provides a convenient channel for everyone to buy cryptocurrencies at the best prices. Tailor-made for beginners, traders, and users.
We can download the App directly from the respective iOS Store or Google Play Store. Alternatively, we may access via the link: https://lite.huobi.com/download
On Huobi Lite, you can buy Bitcoin with your local currencies, credit card, or exchange cryptocurrencies tokens, with zero fees at competitive prices. Huobi Lite currently supports MYR / HKD / VND / USD (Credit Card deposit only), with more to come in the future.
Huobi Derivative Market (Huobi DM)
Huobi Global launched Huobi Derivative Market (Huobi DM) exchange to selected countries. It provides margin trading, with very low daily loan interest rates of 0.1%. Margin Trading allows users to increase their investment exposure given a limited base principal to enjoy multiple returns.
3-Steps taken in Margin Trading:
Huobi Futures is a kind of digital currency derivatives. Users can make a profit from the rising/falling of digital currencies prices by going long or selling short based on their own judgment.
The Huobi Futures Contract adopts spread delivery. When the contract expires, all open positions will be closed at the index-based last-hour arithmetic average price, instead of physical delivery.
BTC/ETH/EOS/LTC/XRP/BCH/TRX/BSV/ETC Contracts are available on Huobi DM. Contracts are priced in USD, with corresponding digital currency (BTC/ETH/EOS/LTC/XRP/BCH/TRX respectively) as margin to open positions, and PnL is also settled in corresponding digital currency.
Weekly, bi-weekly and quarterly contracts are available in Huobi DM. Weekly contracts will be settled on imminent Friday; Bi-weekly contracts will be settled on next Friday; Quarterly contracts will be settled on the last Friday of March, June, September and December.
Choices of leverage: 1x, 5x, 10x, 20x
Huobi Perpetual Swap
Huobi introduced Perpetual Swaps on March 27, 2020 (GMT+8). Huobi Perpetual swap is a kind of digital currency derivatives. Users can make a profit from the rising/falling of digital currencies prices by going long or selling short based on their own judgment. Similar to a margin spot market, its price is close to the price of the underlying reference index. The main mechanism for anchoring spot prices is the cost of funds. Perpetual swap have no delivery date. Users can always hold it. Perpetual swap are settled every 8 hours. After each settlement, the realized profit/loss and unrealized profits/losses are transferred to the user account balance.
Huobi Futures adopted partial liquidation to help position holders reduce liquidation risk. Users with large positions and high leverage bear high risk. Huobi Futures releases partial liquidation with the aim to lower possible losses due to high price volatility thus giving users better trading experience.
Under partial liquidation mechanism, when liquidation is triggered, instead of liquidating all positions at once, the system reduces positions gradually till a grade whose margin ratio is great than 0. Full liquidation will only occur when the margin ratio of tier 1 upper limit net position still fails to be great than 0.
The Huobi exchange has a fair trading fee structure. Every asset traded via Huobi Global is subject to a 0.2% trade fee, for both market makers and takers. Further, Huobi Global has introduced a tiered fee system which offers competitively lower fees for high volume traders. VIP membership gives access to various fee reductions and other benefits.
Huobi Prime, the Launchpad platform which we can call Direct Premium Offering (DPO), does share some similarities with initial exchange offerings (IEO) like Binance Launchpad, but it is unique as it is not a fundraising platform, and any coins purchased on the platform are immediately deposited into the users’ wallets and tradable on Huobi Global. Huobi Prime offers its users early access to the coins of premium projects, which can be bought using its native crypto currency, the Huobi Token. To avoid dumping, Huobi has implemented an innovative idea of a period of tiered price limits.
Huobit FastTrack, rebranded from Huobi Prime Lite, is a new listing model. Wherein, all participants will have a direct say in what projects are listed on Huobi Global and when. In addition, winning voters will get access to quality tokens at below market rates. The program also provides much needed exposure and a straightforward listing process.
Huobi Wallet is the official mobile wallet of Huobi Group, a leading global digital asset financial service provider. It is a multi-chain asset management tool that provides native support for various types of blockchains and all of the ERC20 tokens. So far Huobi Wallet supports BTC, BCH, LTC, ETH, ETC, USDT and all ERC20 tokens.
Huobi wallet is the first wallet to expand support to cover seven stablecoins including, Paxos Standard Token (PAX), TrueUSD (TUSD), USD Coin (USDC), Gemini Dollar (GUSD), Dai (DAI), Stasis EURS (EURS), and Tether (USDT).
Huobi Wallet is built based on the core principle of security-first. The wallet gives back its users, complete control of their private keys. In simple terms, You own your assets. The wallet is backed up with mnemonics, so in future when you want to import your wallet, it’s just simple few clicks.
Currently, the wallet is compatible with both iOS and Android devices and you can download both from here (www.huobiwallet.com/en)
Huobi launched Huobi Chain’s Testnet (“the Testnet”) on February 29th 2020 (GMT+8). Huobi Chain is China’s autonomous cum compliant-ready blockchain platform, and is committed to providing a global, blockchain-based, digital asset infrastructure. Huobi Chain is committed to providing a high-performance, blockchain-based, global digital asset infrastructure. Once the Mainnet goes live, Huobi Chain will announce HT- related events: e.g. pledge HT to be a Super Node, etc.
HT Lock & Mine (Huobi Pool)
Huobi launched HT Lock and Mine operations on 25th July 2019 (GMT+8). Users who lock HT tokens receive daily HPT rewards. Specific reward quantity will depend on lock option period selected, quantity locked and Huobi Pool’ s mining hash power and daily float.
DPOS Rewards: All Huobi Global users with more than 1,000HPT holdings in their HBG account will receive DPOS mining rewards. Currently, token reward received under DPOS mining include EOS, TRX, CMT, ONG, IOST, ATOM, IRIS, LAMB。
Users of the Huobi exchange can access 24/7 live chat and Huobi help center. Those facing issues can also open a support ticket to have their issue resolved by an expert representative immediately.
The Huobi Group has a very active YouTube channel, featuring Huobi Talk, where it posts user tutorials, detailed guides, and crypto currency information for traders.
What I like the most about Huobi
(b) As projects launch exclusively through Huobi Prime from day one, all users get assets at the best price.
(c) Tiered price limits on the platform protect both investors and projects from immediate dump.
Huobi Global: https://www.huobi.com/en-us/
Join Indian Group: https://t.me/huobiglobalindia
Global telegram Channel: https://t.me/huobiglobalofficial
Join Huobi by click here: https://www.huobi.com/en-us/topic/invited/?invite_code=7zkb4
P95G Market Weekly Reportsubmitted by Coinviva to u/Coinviva [link] [comments]
BTC/USD hourly chart
The Bitcoin price continued to go sideway during most of the week, as volatility has decreased. The price dropped to $6,500 at one point, and was able to recover and reached $7,200 toward the end of the week. It will retest the $7,400 resistance level again soon, with the current support at $7,000.
The BTC price at $7,400 is a key level. If the price breaks above $7,400, it will likely reach $7,650 and test $8,000. However, if the price retraced without breaking through $7,400, it could fall below $7,000 and start a new downward trend.
Reviews of the week:
According to CoinMetrics, USDC’s market capitalization, which equals the amount in circulation since it trades at par for dollars, has jumped 65 percent, from $444 million on March 1 to $734 million at press time. Jeremy Allaire, the Circle CEO and co-founder, explains that as the global coronavirus crisis is accelerating mainstream adoption of blockchain technology, the startup’s new business model has received an unexpected boost, and this time much of the demand is for payments in normal business transactions, not just to move money quickly between cryptocurrency exchanges. As a stablecoin, USDC is designed to hold its value against the dollar, and backed by real-world dollars held in a bank, for which it can be redeemed on demand. Referring to the stablecoin Circle issues in partnership with Coinbase, he said the past several weeks’ explosive interest and growth in USDC have been witnessed: “there is clearly very significant global demand for digital dollars and the use of digital dollars as a new payment medium.”
DCEP (Digital Currency Electronic Payment, DC/EP), which is the name of China’s official central bank digital currency (CBDC), has surfaced with its first mobile wallets being tested at Agricultural Bank of China (ABC). DCEP is reported already in the advanced testing phase in four Tier 1 and Tier 2 cities: Shenzhen, Xiong’an, Chengdu and Suzhou and it is positioning as replacement of M0 and using a two-tier operation delivery system. It shows that it will have the possibility to send and receive offline payments and it is not using a typical blockchain but more of a distributed ledger technology (DLT) style protocol. China is making giant strides in advancing with blockchain technology since China’s president Xi Jinping announced blockchain as one of the country’s technological priorities and advocated to “seize the opportunity” last year.
Disclaimer: The above market commentary is based on technical analysis using historical pricing data, and is for reference only. It does not serve as investment or trading advice.
Coinviva aims to create the best crypto financial services ecosystem for both institutional and individual investors. We provide reliable fiat funding options, excellent trading liquidity, bank security level custody and one-stop high liquidity provision on-site & off-site. Our founding management team all come from top tiered investment banking (e.g. JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley, Bank of America Merrill Lynch), with fully comprehensive financial institution operation experience.
Decred has caught a burst of long overdue wind today.submitted by __checkmatey__ to decred [link] [comments]
Below is my thesis on recent price action drivers and why I think Decred is insanely undervalued right now from an on-chain/blockchain mechanics perspective.
This is an expansion on a tweet I put out here https://twitter.com/_Checkmatey_/status/1190349477120552961
Fundamentally, the project is one of the most undervalued assets in the market and I believe the largest information asymmetry next to Bitcoin. The smart money know this. They have been accumulating. Looking at the volume of DCR moving on-chain, we can see a significant amount of DCR moving in 2019 at the current support range. We know that DCR is always on the move due to tickets so when we see high volume nodes like this, it supports the notion of actual accumulation in addition to the usual transaction flow. We have seen similar growth in the median and mean transaction sizes throughout 2019. Larger wallets, larger DCR purchases.
Update: Note how the 2019 volume node, if just looking at USD chart could be attributed to Dec-Apr period or the recent drawdown. However looking against the BTC chart confirms that the dominant accumulation has occurred during the recent period as the BTC price probes the lows. This is what I consider a high volume zone of support characterised by a large transfer of coins (miners selling, accumulating buyers).
On-chain DCR volume profile plotted against price for BTC (black) and USD (blue)
The recent price action drawdown in my opinion is a result of Miners going too hard to fast. ASICs were introduced in early 2018 and we see an explosion in PoW Difficulty. Mining is a leveraged play for DCR and in this case is unlike what occurred for BTC in that it was almost four years until ASICs were on the scene for Bitcoin. This means that Bitcoins naturally high early inflation had time to disperse before ASICs and serious hardware investment came online. ASICs are capital intensive, not hobbyist grade meaning coins mined must necessarily become coins sold.
We can compare the insane growth in Decred mining since Jan 2018 against the market to see this on a relative scale. Mind you, this is a bullish signal. Miners are committing heavy capital to the Decred chain security. They have done their due diligence and have high conviction. That is not something to ignore.
Full tweet on this here https://twitter.com/_Checkmatey_/status/1177650799050133504
Normalised difficulty growth (left) since Jan 2018 and (right) 2019 Year to Date
As miners over-extend without support of price appreciation, they must sell more coins to pay bills. Eventually the weak miners have to capitulate and difficulty ribbon squeezes as mining equipment is switched off. We have seen this play out for Bitcoin where squeezing of the difficulty ribbon indicates a valuable period for accumulation. Willy Woo talks about this here https://woobull.com/introducing-the-difficulty-ribbon-the-best-times-to-buy-bitcoin/.
What happens next is that the strong miners gain an increasing share of the hashrate. Their energy is thus rewarded with more DCR and so they can sell less of their income and Hodl more. This effectively begins to constrain supply rather than the oversaturation during capitulation. Over time this leads to a reversal in price action which further perpetuates the effect.
Price of a scarce asset must appreciate with reduced circulating supply assuming demand relatively remains stable or increases.
Decred total cumulative block subsidy paid (price x block reward DCR) and Difficulty ribbon
This is actually very healthy for Decred. Coins are being distributed by miners en-mass right now, nullifying the risk of miners holding too high of a supply within the staking system leading to centralisation. I would argue that this distribution of coins is one of the most important and bullish signals long term. We know that miners stake as well and thus they are able to generate income on Hodled coins. I expect this to actually soften the degree of miner capitulation as they can turn off power whilst still generating income.
For this reason, I do not suspect we will see photos of mountains of Decred ASICs being thrown out as we saw for Bitcoin in 2018. The machines are simply put on hold until price reverses to justify power consumption. This is a valuable business feasibility case for miners and a feature of long term sustainability in the chain security.
This is where the elegance of Decred resilience steps in.
As miners slow, supply saturates, price drops.
DCR Tickets become cheaper.
Stakeholders step in and accumulation begins.
The Ticket Price hit an ATH of 140+ DCR as Stakeholders begin accumulating and commit capital to secure the chain. The Hybrid PoW/PoS system works as a counter balance. When price is in a strong uptrend, stakeholders are provided an exit to capitalise on gains as miners have a strong case for expanding their operations (PoW dominant security). During price drawdowns, miners drop out and the cheap DCR stimulates Hodlers buying and locking capital which locks down available supply from attackers. An attack would thus drive price higher and the cycle repeats.
As above, showing the total DCR locked in tickets hits an ATH as price drops due to miner capitulation
PermabullNino made the observation that Decred functions as an elegant yet robust accounting system. His discussion on block subsidies are shown in the charts above and linked here https://medium.com/@permabullnino/decred-on-chain-a-look-at-block-subsidies-6f5180932c9b.Decred has a has past, present and future cash flows distributed to those who support it most. This puts Decred security in good hands- Miners 60%- Stakeholders 30%- Builders 10%
Price is currently hovering around the PoW total subsidy paid (red line) and means miners are indeed feeling the squeeze as this is the cost basis of all DCR paid to date. Once you factor in overheads and capital costs, it makes sense we are seeing DCR supply distribution. The last time we saw price dip to this line was early in Decreds history and was followed by a rapid repricing.
We now have three mechanisms at play which will act to constrain supply
My recent work looking at the Decred stock-to-flow model (which does exist and is convincing, contrary to what the Bitcoin maxi community may want to believe), suggests that DCR is in the oversold range. It has deviated by 1.5 standard deviations from the S2F model mean which is near identical to Bitcoin at 50% supply mined. Historically for Bitcoin and Decred, this has been an opportune period for accumulation. More on this discussion in my tweet here https://twitter.com/_Checkmatey_/status/1184159137564889089
Note that Decred, likely due to the smooth issuance and difference in market awareness, is less volatile than Bitcoin. The significant undervaluation of Bitcoin at 50% mined was due to the first 2012 halving where it was a very different and far smaller market. I would expect DCR to be repriced sooner rather than later as the smart money steps in having now developed Bitcoin hindsight.
Standard deviations of DCR and BTC price from the respective stock-to-flow linear regression models
As a final note, if we look at Decred and Bitcoin market valuations plotted against ratio of 21M coins issued, which normalises for coin age, we see a fascinating similarity in these coins trajectory. Bitcoin was worth $127M at 50% coins mined and Decred was worth $180M. Considering we are in a log scale market, this is practically the same. Decred has achieved this value both benefiting from market awareness and size, but also in the face of heavy (albeit generally ill-equipped) alt-coin competition, quite remarkable.
Decred and Bitcoin Market and Realised Caps and S2F models plotted against ratio of 21M coins mined
Given that Decred has such insanely strong fundamentals, has developed a convincing monetary premium in it's short life and traverses the same stock-to-flow path as Bitcoin, I believe there is immense value flying under the markets radar.
The recent price action drawdown can reasonably be attributed to miners over-extending. However based on both prior Decred behaviour and drawing comparisons to Bitcoin history, there is a strong argument to be made that supply will soon be constrained on multiple fronts and the current value is both highly undervalued and being absorbed by the smart money.
Feedback, counter-points and discussions welcome.
Within the last hour Bitcoin (BTC) price pushed through the $11,000 level in a high volume surge which saw the price reach a new 2020 high at To ensure that the value of Bitcoin is not compromised by an infinite supply, Satoshi Nakamoto wrote in a “halving event” that happens every 210,000 blocks. When Bitcoin’s network first began, Bitcoin’s block reward was 50 BTC per block mined. This was halved in 2012, at block #210,000, where the block reward became 25 BTC. The Bitcoin blockchain has been in existence since 2009, but overall, Bitcoin’s first exchanges on marketplaces date back to 2010. At the time, a Bitcoin was only worth a few cents! One exchange that remains known in the cryptocurrency ecosystem is the purchase of two pizzas in May 2010 by a web developer for 10,000 bitcoins. Bitcoin Live Price, Charts, Forecasts, News and Coin Data. just balances of Bitcoins that are recorded on Bitcoin’s blockchain which is a decentralized, public ledger. Your capital is at The price of Bitcoin (BTC) reached $10,956 on BitMEX, officially surpassing $10,900 for the first time since 2019. It has broken out of a multi-year trendline, dating back to 2017. Traders and
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