Paul Krugman - The New York Times

Investigation of (Dis-)Favor 1\3 questioning freedom of will (in Macro-society)

This item began as a simple idea to investigate "social construct" theory, a trendy theme in academia and identity politics. It turned into a staggeringly complex constellation of ideas, with surprises galore.
The idea occurs to me: validate (or not) 'social construction' of beauty. If not, then sense of beauty is innate (source is not one's society, but genetic or other episocial influences).
Natural Tendency towards Beauty in Humans: Evidence from Binocular Rivalry 2016 | plos (technical study)
Reading in Contemporary Aesthetics "Why Beauty Still Cannot Be Measured", by Ossi Naukkarinen, because beauty is a personal determination, and a metaphor of favor, but how is it determined? Example: which of these women looks beautiful to you? note: only descriptor for the AI search is "beautiful woman", AI learns about beauty by sifting mega-data; how effective is it? (achieves given goal?) AI results are socially constructed in the most explicit way possible! Beauty may not be measurable, but it can be selected (parsed) from non-beauty. Measurement is a comparison of some phenomenon to an abstract dimension. Selection is a go, no-go choice.
What is Nudge theory? This item straddles the fence between Macro and Micro societies, paradigmatic Nudges come from Macro sources, but include an option to choose without pressure to conform. Micro sources are always more direct; which side of the fence are you on, friend?. (Greener side, of course.)
What about searching for "good", images? note how often the WORD good is pictured. Good is a language construct that must be interpreted from the individual's perspective.
Ok, now search for "favor" images note that AI mostly interprets favor as a small gift, not as a preference (which is difficult to represent by image)
Well then, search for "preference", images note that the word preference happens to be used by a line of hair care products from L'Oreal, which dominates the returns... commerce rules!
social construct (def, search result)
validate (or not) 'social construction' of beauty
Is Socialism a social construct? (LoL) Socialism Defined (EVERY Country is Socialist!) 2.2k views Sep 29, 2019 Rokn'MrE
To (social) Construct, or Not to (social) Construct, is there a choice? (note most results are about gender)
Parsing gender
Discussion of gender is not my direction of choice in this part 1 investigation. I want to seek how an actor (esp. me) makes a choice, in a quest for freedom of will. Perhaps come back to gender in a future item.
person makes a choice, in a quest for freedom of will (selections available)
Exemplar Hyp (Harry) Frankfurt’s compatibilist theory of free will 2009 5pg.pdf
I notice my choice of article was partly determined, partly free, but parsing out those factors would be too much divergence from the goal here. But Truth (a two side coin) is my story, and I'm stickin' to it.
(previous link, compatibilism):
3 It explains our intuition that human beings, but not lower animals, have free will. Lower animals lack free will because they lack the second-order volitions which are constitutive of free will. (This item is unnecessary and probably not true; how do we know animals have no "second-order volitions"? Having no other language than "body", we can only surmise (guess) what their volitions are. Volitions come before actions, we cannot see them or interpret them in any way. Brain conditions might be interpreted with MRI scanning, but to put a subject in a scanning device is to prevent any other actions. Such measuring ruins the connection between mental state and volition being measured, except we can safely assume that every measurement of animals must default to the volition to escape the measuring device.)
That's the first-order, highlighted deviation from compatibility theory. Clarification of "second-order volition": a path from choice to action has an intermediate "middle-way" tunneling mode, contracting (taking on) a desire to make a choice, prior to making the choice. In order to prove freedom, one must establish the mental preference for an imagined outcome in order to prove that preference did come from within the person and was not forced by other external deciding factors (genetic factors are pre-determined).
incompatibilism Note: the approach is wrong by the universal assumption, IOW that the intersection of determined and free is zero. It's a supremacy position, or superposition principle (LoL), the error is in over-simplification. The Logic Argument (p.5) is not representative of reality, which is more nuanced. Therefore, Frankfurt's thesis is good (denial of incompatibilism), but not due to the case presented (superposition).
Take Frankfurt's case (p.4) of Black vs Jones4 to be analogy for State vs Individual. Silent Weapons for Quiet Wars (other sources exist, search for yourself)
The (myusername) determinism/free-will duality hypothesis (denial of incompatibilism due to non-zero intersection):
Most choices, including the choice of desires, are determined by contingencies of which one is the natural desire of the actor to optimize his/her outcomes ("best wishes"). Is a person always compelled to have best wishes? What is best depends on a person's mental state, which is usually determined by external factors, but those can vary in cogency (impact on behavior). Consider the choice to commit suicide, certainly not a trivial choice. (The Chosen means of execution (puns intended) is somewhat more trivial, but again, partly determined by external conditions.)
Some choices, nearly all trivial, are free because no interfering contingencies are apparent during the choosing interlude. It may happen in hindsight, that a past choice is observed to be a mistake, usually because some contingency was overlooked or unknown during the choosing. This observation should be remembered so as to avoid repeating a future choice like that mistake. Choices always have risks, including the choice to do nothing.
Different day, slightly different approach... parsing choice. 1 important choices that have many deep effects later, for instances a marriage partner, a new job, a new residence; 2 trivial choices which have minor effects, risks or physical involvement, for instances a choice of toothpaste at the market, to like or not a web-link or museum exhibit.
According to (myusername)'s determined/free paradigm, type 1 choices are nearly all determined by pre-existing conditions (not free). Type 2 choice is the arena of freedom. I suppose a person's low risk-aversion parameter could expand the envelope of freedom, but that's a characteristic that develops during maturation, one's history of choices and ensuing responses. Successful responses lead to more freedom, failures to less. So even when freedom exists, it accumulates a history (habits) which become a determinant.
Contracting the Social Construct Disorder (it's contagious) Take 1:
How does an actor (person in question who comes to an internal state, or inner-construct) interact with a community or society? Must it be IRL, or can virtual interaction suffice to construct internal states? And more to my point, must the interaction be two-way (containing feedback), or simply via broadcast medium? (broadcast includes published books, articles, records, radio, TV or Internet A/V shows, etc.)
Interaction with broadcast media can be summarized by: a choice, a degree of attention and focus (time spent on and attention given to item), a like/dislike or more complex reaction to item, having future behavior influenced by item, to continue a stream of behaviors (especially sequential item choices) as consequence of influence of item, to develop a complex of attitudes built upon stream of items (eg. just mentioned 'risk aversion parameter and habit).
Before going on, I notice that broadcast media is like Sunshine, Rain, and Grace. It is made available by participation in a community, and falls without curse or blessing, it's all there for the choosing (or ignoring), depending on the contingencies.
Mind control theory? (because mind is the inner source of volition... behavior, control the mind (easy), hence control the behaviors (difficult otherwise))
Mind control courtesy Tavistock Inst.
Construction of Favor (or any knowledge) upon Familiarity
What is Social Construction? (cntrlZ)
"For instance, trees are only differentiated from other plants by virtue of the fact that we have all learned to see them as "trees."
But we don't all know about trees to an equal degree. I know rather much about trees from my interaction with them: living among them, planting them, sawing them, moving them, burning them, etc., not from reading or talking about them. No doubt, there are many persons all over the world who have very little experience of trees, and cannot 'construct' treeness as well as me. Direct experience is more realistic and developed than social constructs.
Favor and Familiarity are interwoven by choice
I chose to live alone with trees and not alone with sea, or desert (for examples), because it was easier to go with trees. Was the choice free? I could have chosen city or suburb with even more ease than forest, so ease of choice was not the deciding factor, it was my preference of lonely forest over crowded urb that decided me. So maybe it wasn't really about trees, it was about independence or something else like that. When we choose, we may not understand the contingencies, but our decision (choice) may be due to habits or patterns that have developed in the maturity process. Habits are strong determinants, and they develop, according to Ian Plowman, 4 ways.
The cntrlZ article makes the case for 'Strong Social Construction' based on that 'knowing' which is all about language, certainly a social construct.
Within the social construction of language is the game. Outside the social construction is reality, the real world. (a list of social constructs follows)
That makes it clear. Experiences (direct ones) without resort to language are NOT social constructs. That observation makes another distinction clear: gender may be a social construct, as it's a language issue, but sex is not a social construct, it is a direct experience issue that develops in the maturation process: birth, infant, child, puberty, sexy adolescent, sexy adult, old (unsexy) adult, death. Prior to puberty, sex is incipient in its development, but comes to life, (like a flower blooms) after a decade or so. Knowing about sex as a child is by observation from outside (thru the looking glass), after puberty, it's direct experience, and much later, it's a fading memory.
Regarding Looking-glass self theory the notion of socially constructed identity (defining the self by differences/ affinities to others),
... the outcome of "taking the role of the other", the premise for which the self is actualized. Through interaction with others, we begin to develop an identity of our own as well as developing a capacity to empathize with others... Therefore, the concept of self-identity may be considered an example of a social construction.
... makes a spurious expansion of identity formation to include everyone (a unity), or nearly so. According to Reisman's Lonely Crowd, there is a triality of social nature, expounded by parsing people into tradition, inner, and other directed personalities. This theme was a scholar's response to the US trend toward consumerism and conformity to "norms", (local traditions, eg. "keeping up with the Joneses") mid-20th century. The social construct crowd would be Reisman's Other directed personality, which may truly be the majority, in USA certainly. However, the tradition-following and inner-directed personalities are a significant minority. Let's not ignore them (I'm in there.)
What is “Mob Mentality?”
Herd mentality | wkpd
Are All Personality Descriptions Social Constructions? Sep.2019 | psytdy
... that objective reality does not directly reveal itself to us, is true beyond a doubt.
The preceding statement author, JA Johnson, is way off (and his article is full of falseness). Objective reality IS direct experience, no more revealing modality exists. Denial of this obvious fact (just lied about above) is a redefinition of the term (a social construct). Experience is beyond language, thus beyond 'description'. However the following is a true reveal about (((Yews))) (the like of whom Dr. Johnson seems):
It is true that when we describe someone with socially undesirable traits... we are constructing for them a social reputation that might decrease their chance of success in life. This is precisely one of the concerns of (((social constructivists, like Dr. Johnson))), that certain categorizations (eg. a separate race) reduce power and status.
Proof that Truth is not a social construct (relative to culture, like morality absolutely is)... What do you believe in? Cultural Relativism
Conformity is a social construct (should be obvious, it's a social source of choices). What causes conformity? Social interactions, which traditionally occurred (Macro-version) in newspapers, magazines, cinema and radio programs. As culture changed the popular media to radio, TV and then to Internet, and church attendance fell out of vogue, the advertising industry became more powerful in defining social constructs. That's why Internet censorship is so important.
Who are the 'influencers' in society? (They used to be parents, teachers, peers... now it seems to be YouTubers, like PewDiePie. But an intentionally underplayed contingent of influencers is the predominantly Left-Leaning academia, who collectively promote Marxist preferences and political activism toward Socialist positions. Academia is pushing social construction because it provides an intellectual framework that denies the old (social injustice), and says ok to their preferred ideology, Cultural Marxism (new social "just us"; socially constructed ideas can be anything you want, their cogency depends on efficacy of publication).
Micro-Social Constructs are most cogent (due to conformity being human nature), discussed in part 2.
Bottom Line (part 1)
If you like freedom, and are serious about it, you must distance yourself from society, because it tries to reconstruct you according to the norm... conform!
Before you go, think about what is a hermit?, which should not be confused with Hermetic, name derived from Greek god Hermes. 7 Great Hermetic Principles – The Teachings of Thoth (illustrated)... same topic 2016
Investigation of (Dis-)Favor 2\3, Micro-Societies
Social Circles; Mates, Kin, Friends
note on Mates: school-, (prison) in-, marriage-, ship-, etc. note on my link choices, page rank has a strong influence
Social group (aka circle)
Is Conformity Human Nature? Don't blow this list off, if you want to understand social constructs. At least look at first item.
What is Social Proof?
Are Micro-societies any less 'constructing' than Macros? Or do some constructs exist for all realms, macro and micro? I think they are more constructing, because micros carry feedback, whereas macro is all absorption, individuals have negligible effects on society at large. They act in a statistical sense, with a few exceptions.
Concept vs Percept (concepts are stable mental recordings, and physical manifestations of them; percepts are changing sensations and reflexes which depend strongly on the situation, memories of which are variable too)
Favor, Good, and Beauty are words that belong in the same 'conceptual basket' (ward), they are alike, all refer to action 'like', as an affective (and affirmative) perception. Conversely for the word's opposites.
Perceptions are non-language reactions to stimuli, therefore not social constructs. They may be evoked into a social arena via language (or other virtual records), but these are only shadows of the perception, so what is evoked is drawn up from the receiver's own memories of perceptions.
Division of Labor (and role models) are Social Constructs
Sex is the most basic divider of labor, for all societies, especially the most primitive. As societies develop towards more technical, sex falls away from the divider, as natural talent and innate interest gain influence, until the basic operations of reproduction remain, the core division. What about rankings in the division?
natural tendency for dominance?
Are males naturally dominant in nature? | qra
(arguments opposing) Male Dominance (theory) with (bogus) "Explanations", by 2 feminist authors using Marxist ideology 2017 | verso While this blog seems to have obvious (to me) flaws, it does raise interesting ideas and references.
what attributes help males gain social status? Basic: status is competitive. It takes talent and effort to win.
To Raise Male Status (18 Rules) | @rctvmn (not because age 18 is best)
Dominance vs Prestige 2010 | psytdy Note: blatant bias toward Prestige via argument parsing Pride. (author is Jewish, maligns DJ Trump (nationalist), lauds John Lennon (globalist))
modes of thought: socially-controlled vs spontaneous
Major Component of Social-Construction: Public Education 3 Modes of Thought Jan.2019
Kaufman again: How Renaissance People Think 2011 | psytdy Note: We discussed concept vs percept, here Kaufman refers to fellow-Jew Seymour Epstein's dual modish rational vs experiential theory, same idea set.
polymath (short for Renaissance Man)
Favor-Goodness-Beauty paradigm
Favor is not favored in prior art, Truth takes Favor's place in the Transcendental Spectrum: Transcendentals 5pg.pdf
We have already seen the idea in part 1 that Truth is a disputed transcendental in the social-constructionism academic universe. Academics use the "universal fallacy" that their favored item is part of an incompatible pair, which by logic excludes everything not in their favor. They want to ignore the nuances in order to push an ideology toward a supremacy of thinking, just like in a totalitarian state.
Whereas the (myusername) principle of Truth, it has a dual nature, 1 relative to a society (democratic consensus); and 2 absolute to reality (math/science/technology). So 'Favor' is a better term because objective proof (no contest) is not required (except the meaning of objective that says 'objection!', meaning 'contest'). 'Favor' implies bias which is the subjective reaction that matches Goodness and Beauty better than 'Truth'.
Apply Truth-Goodness-Beauty paradigm to social construction
it is unconcerned with ontological issues...
because the aim of constructionists is to justify a collective "truth" of their own construction. A social construct is not absolute, it's anything a society wants it to be ("social proof"). That's a good description of tyranny... The Empowered Female Parasite 2014 (that's a surprising result, here is one not-surprising.)
Social Proof: established by culture media (mind control, a monopoly 2012 (scroll down long graphic), of the Juice 2015), go back to part 1, macrosocial constructs.
Does Appreciation of Beauty have any innate sources? (otherwise it's all a social construct) Neuroscience of Beauty; How does the brain appreciate art? 2011 | sciam (in brain)
Onward (Dis)-Favor Readers...
Investigation of (Dis-)Favor 3\3, House of Not-Friends
Contracting the Social Construct Disorder Take 2
Living outside the 'Normitory" (away from Dreamland (everybody's asleep), to where Nessun Dorma (nobody sleeps))
It so happens that an ethnic group which originated in eastern Mediterranean Middle-East evolved to specialize in intelligence, commerce, morally corrupt enterprises, and crime. Essential to their success was eugenic traditions that applied artificial selection to just those same specialties, which makes this ethnic group a formidable enemy. They have developed a very strong sense of in-groupness, and a vested interest in social construct studies. A unified collective is a more effective competitor than an inchoate population of diverse individuals.
This group has as ethnic traits: global dispersion (aka Diaspora), preference for urban environments (aka Cosmopolitan, or Globalist), covert inter-group rivalry (aka InfoWar), and deception (aka MOSSAD). This cosmopolitan group must operate covertly and deceptively, because those are effective tactics, and they are a small minority (2% of USA), therefore weak in the democratic sense.
Immoral Social Constructs enforced by 5th column subversives
wethefifth (political audio series)
serendipity: freethink
Another construct search, without gender reference
Is morality a social construct? If so, how can concepts such as 'good' exist? (note especially the links in top comment, to reddit posts)
"Good" can be understood as a variation of "Favor" as a direct experience (perception) of "like", rather than some idealized notion of an obvious social construct such as "greater good" (a theoretical derivation by interventionist actors-with-agendas trying to impose their own preferences upon others, IOW ideology hegemony pushers, for instance viz da wiz)
Cultural hegemony is the Chosen's mitzvah, that we all must go to Emerald City, land of Oz, where YHWH (impostor) rules.
Cultural hegemony
Concepts of Ideology, Hegemony, and Organic Intellectuals in Gramsci’s Marxism 1982
There is no universal morality. Morality is much like Beauty, in the mind of beholder (actor who holds to a specific moral code). Morality is a social construct, and varies between societies. (I think a fair definition of morality is a code of ethics which is community-specific.) For a society to sustain, it needs to be isolate from conflicting societies. If different societies, with different moralities must coexist, the natural tendency for actors in the same niche toward dominance will destroy or remake the subordinate societies, which reduces the conflicts.
Status Hierarchies: Do We Need Them? blog 2012 | psytd
a need for 'virtue signaling'? It's natural, and likely unavoidable, evidence pride displays.
Status Assignments: by birth (heredity) or merit (talent)?
Let's assume your morality values social effectiveness. The best path to that is to have talented persons dominant (meritocracy). Next we happen to know that talent is hereditary, but not perfectly so. Therefore birth (kinship, aka kingship) is only an indicator of talent, which is infrequent among low status groups, much higher among high status kinship groups. Thus we must conclude that awarding status by pedigree and family privilege is not the best way to effectiveness, but it often does work. What works best then, must be? a competitive system of merit-proving, with special attention to high-status families. (Helps if the natural tendency for snobbish repression is circumvented, for examples Han-style Civil Service Exams, and the Roman military promotion avenue, which occasionally led to top gun.)
Sustainable Competitive Advantages (aka moats): Network Effects 2019 | sEknα
Our Brain's Negative Bias 2003 | psytdA
Fear: it's the greatest (motivator) 2009 Owen Benjamin made a video about Fear over TIME 16 min.
Dominance Hierarchy employs FEAR to dominate
Dominance hierarchy | wkpd Social dominance theory | wkpd
scaring children is not ok, Sydney Watson blog 11 min
tools for social mobility and dominance (list)
9 Important Factors That Influence Social Mobility Social dominance orientation | wkpd SDO should theoretically be highly important to Jews, as their ethos tends strongly to emulate it among themselves and denigrate it towards outgroups (Goyim). Thus we should expect to see this field of study monopolized by Jewish scholars. Studying the Gentile: Fanciful Pseudoscience in the Service of Pathologizing the Covington Boys | OO
Contracting the Social Construct Disorder Take 3
Different day from Take 2. Re-consider interactions with a community or society: traditionally occurred locally, on Sunday meetings at church, parties, having a beer after work, town hall or children's group meetings, (eg. PTA, scouts) etc.
Re-consider "contracting". Original idea was meant to acquire, like a disease, not by design (choice), but determined by contingency (unlucky chance). Today, "contracting" means getting smaller, shrinking, like a cooling branding iron, or melting ice. Iron has several crystalline phases, the cooler, the more compact (more atomic order). Ice is contrary to most materials, as its crystalline structure is larger than its liquid phase, so as it melts (entropy always increases, going to less ordered) its atoms become more fluid. In both cases, the natural mode of change is toward ambient temperature. This trend (recursion to the mean) is maybe the most unbroken law of all physics.
Re-considering "Disorder"; original idea was meant as a mental disease, like ADHD (Attention Deficit Hyperactive Disorder), IOW anomalous condition, out-of-order, (order being assumed normal) in the human behavior dimension. Today it means individuals out-of-line, like discontinuities in a crystal. (Discontinuities are what make metal harder.)
When all the atoms of a metal are aligned (continuous), the state is called "annealed". This is the softest condition. When the metal has been "work hardened" by hammering, or forging, it acquires discontinuities (crystalline order becomes mucked up). This is a harder state. Hardness is measured by forcing a small ball into a test material and measuring the resulting depression (dent). Discontinuities resist dents and every other kind of deforming force (decreased plasticity (weakness) means increased elasticity and maximum yield (resilience, see Young's Modulus, Indentation hardness, Impact Toughness and Moh's Hardness)).
Now make analogy of metal with society. Non-conformist individuals (like followers of Marginotions) make society (if he-he-heeded) more resistant to outside forces (like George Soros, or seekers of Tikkun Olam) trying to make a dent in the established order (tradition, Protestant Ethic).
Contracting the Social Construct Disorder Take 4
Different day Re-consider "contracting" again. Today, it means make-a-deal, as in commercial contract. This kind of contract is in flux nowadays, as the advent of bitcoin has introduced a mathematical means of authorizing legal agreements (aka contracts) in a distributed ledger that makes such agreements social in a very direct sense. The social part of "social construct" is present in a world wide network of participating computer operators, while the construct part is present in a software package (app) that is now called "smart", meaning has built-in security and ongoing timely operations, like confirmation checking. In this contract-paradigm, the "disorder" part is due to it being outside of previous power-holding elites who are chagrined by the prospect of losing some of their powers to the Internetwork, which is out of their control. IOW disorder for elites, and made-to-order for independents. (note on that quote)
Social Contract per britannica (briefly) per wkpd
explicit vs implicit contracts Differences Between Implicit & Explicit Agreements (law) 2017 more specific, social contracts Social Contract Theory UT (includes videos, glossary)
to be continued: fairness is a social construct (contrast with deterministic fate)
study notes (all 3 parts, this series)
Gentrification, Displacement and the Role of Public Investment: A Literature Review 2015 pdf
https://duckduckgo.com/?q=Owen+Benjamin+made+video+about+Fear&atb=v81-4__&ia=videos
why is 'social construct' a popular theme?
https://www.success.com/8-daily-habits-to-build-your-mental-strength/
Pareto principle implications for marital harmony, a very brief summary of research by J Cacioppo)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jewish_culture
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Race_and_society
https://thejewishwars.blogspot.com/2019/03/aipac-traitor-jews-having-successfully.html
https://theevilofzionismexposedbyjews.weebly.com/14-what-zionist-and-anti-zionist-jews-have-said-about-education.html
submitted by acloudrift to AlternativeHypothesis [link] [comments]

[Thursday, 17. October]

World News

The largest dark web child pornography site in the world has been taken down after IRS followed Bitcoin transactions
Comments | Link
Quebec to offer legal cannabis at $4.49 a gram, beating grey-market price
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HK protesters demand CCTV footage from Tiu Keng Leng school following death of 15-year-old student: Chan, a swimmer and a regular participant in the ongoing protests was last seen on Sept 19. Her body was found naked in the sea three days later.
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All news, US and international.

US Hearthstone players banned for Hong Kong protest
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A Lakers Fan Raised Almost $43k to Hand Out "Stand with Hong Kong" T-Shirts at the Season Opener
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Elijah Cummings, esteemed longtime Baltimore congressman, has died at 68
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Science

From 2007 to 2017, the number of suicides among people ages 10 to 24 increased 56 percent
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The “kids these days effect”, people’s tendency to believe “kids these days” are deficient relative to those of previous generations, has been happening for millennia, suggests a new study (n=3,458). When observing current children, we compare our biased memory to the present and a decline appears.
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The largest-ever natural experiment on wealth taxes found that they work as intended — both raising revenue and controlling income inequality. The taxes had the greatest impact on the top .1% wealthiest.
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/Technology

New Bill Promises an End to Our Privacy Nightmare, Jail Time to CEOs Who Lie: "Mark Zuckerberg won’t take Americans’ privacy seriously unless he feels personal consequences. Under my bill he’d face jail time for lying to the government," Sen. Ron Wyden said.
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The Public Is Clearly on the Side of Net Neutrality
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Marc Benioff says it's time to break up Facebook
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Sadly, this is not the Onion.

8 families find out they have been paying respects to the wrong graves for 39 years
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Paris zoo unveils the blob, an organism with no brain but 720 sexes
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Mum of 44 kids banned from having any more children
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Ask Reddit...

What is something most people need to hear but no one has the guts to tell people?
Comments
What would be the worst possible movie quote to yell as you climax?
Comments
Successful people who got crappy grades in high school or college - what are you doing now and how did (or didn't) your grades affect your success/career?
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Sysadmin

Run from Adobe Creative Cloud
Comments
Rant: Make the password "1234"
Comments
Amazon’s Consumer Business Just Turned off its Final Oracle Database
Comments

Microsoft SQL Server

Favorite resources to learn SSRS and SSIS?
Comments

PowerShell

'DarkMode' in Azure Network Topology Visualizer
Comments
Best way to start learning Powershell?
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PSUrlScanio - Powershell module for using the urlscan.io API. (v1.0 release)
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Functional 3D Printing

A simple cover for our laundry room connections, pun added by the missus
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Needed a new dog treat lid. Flexible print.
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Drilling guide to find the middle of the wood and make a nice vertical hole :)
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Data Is Beautiful

[OC] Top 5 accidental causes of death in Chicago, IL
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Color-Balancing Vote Margins and Vote Totals in the US Election Map [OC]
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[OC] Highly rated horror movies are less likely to have many jump scares
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Today I Learned (TIL)

TIL that after years of competition between Chuck E Cheese and Showbiz Pizza, Chuck E Cheese went bankrupt and was bought by Showbiz Pizza, who then proceeded to rebrand their locations as Chuck E Cheese.
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TIL 5-10% of Melanesians (a dark-skinned Pacific Island people) have blonde hair. This is not due to mixture with European populations, but rather due to an independently arising mutation.
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TIL that according to Graham Nash, Jimi Hendrix was unbeatable at the game Risk, especially while on LSD.
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So many books, so little time

Anyone else re-read old favourites for stress relief?
Comments
Almost finished reading Harry Potter and the Philosopher's Stone to my son for the first time!
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Dracula
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OldSchoolCool: History's cool kids, looking fantastic

The note my dad wrote to my mom on the back of his high school portrait when they were seniors. They ended up going to prom together and have now been married for 29 years :)
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After the assassination of senator and presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy in 1968, a lot of Americans went to see his funeral car as it traveled by rail from New York to Washington. A photographer who traveled with the casket took this photo as the train passed through Baltimore.
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Kid with Power Glove circa 1989
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aviation

Aww, now he can fly with the-
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Last flight to land in Jazan airport, saudi arabia before the airport close down due to massive sandstorm.
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Layers upon layers
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Reddit Pics

Though it has been around since the 1950s, the rockabilly culture is still going strong in Japan!
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10 year old kid standing tall after being arrested in Hong Kong for shouting “revolution of our time, glory to Hong Kong”
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A shirt I gifted my sister in 2013
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.gifs - funny, animated gifs for your viewing pleasure

The true heros of the sea
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Where did the human go?
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A breathtaking view of Switzerland from this hotel's pool
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A subreddit for cute and cuddly pictures

Golden boy gets distracted by another handsome golden boy.
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Bobcat after a boy saved him from a fire (not my clip btw)
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Does this mean we are Best Friends Now?
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submitted by DangerDylan to DangerDylanTLDR [link] [comments]

The Primary Drivers of Ecocide

Energy

In 2017, the myth of powering the world with 100% renewables has started to crack
http://energyforhumanity.org/en/climate-energy/2017-myth-powering-world-100-renewables-started-crack/
Global demand for oil will continue to increase until 2040 says the IEA
https://www.dw.com/en/international-energy-agency-sees-crunch-on-oil-consumption/a-46267704
EUROPE GETS 60% OF ITS “RENEWABLE ENERGY” BY BURNING IMPORTED TREES
https://www.newscientist.com/article/2114993-europes-green-energy-policy-is-a-disaster-for-the-environment/
The EU is emitting way more greenhouse gases than it says
https://qz.com/528491/the-eu-is-emitting-way-more-greenhouse-gases-than-it-says/
UC Davis Peer Reviewed Study: It Will Take 131 Years to Replace Oil with Alternatives (Malyshkina, 2010)
http://energyforhumanity.org/en/climate-energy/2017-myth-powering-world-100-renewables-started-crack/
At this rate, it’s going to take nearly 400 years to transform the energy system
https://www.technologyreview.com/s/610457/at-this-rate-its-going-to-take-nearly-400-years-to-transform-the-energy-system/
University of Chicago Peer Reviewed Study: predicts world economy unlikely to stop relying on fossil fuels (Covert, 2016)
https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/jep.30.1.117
Solar and Wind produced less than one percent of total world energy in 2016 – IEA WEO 2017
https://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/KeyWorld2017.pdf
Turbines Kill So Many Birds They’re Effectively an Apex Predator
https://e360.yale.edu/digest/wind-farms-can-act-like-apex-predators-in-ecosystems-study-finds
Fossil Fuel Share of Global Energy since 1990 – BP 2017
https://imgur.com/k7VecMq
Renewable energy ‘simply won’t work’: Top Google engineers
http://www.theregister.co.uk/2014/11/21/renewable_energy_simply_wont_work_google_renewables_engineers/
Top scientists show why powering US using 100 percent renewable energy is a delusional fantasy
http://energyskeptic.com/2017/big-fight-21-top-scientists-show-why-jacobson-and-delucchis-renewable-scheme-is-a-delusional-fantasy/
IEA Sees No Peak Oil Demand ‘Any Time Soon’, WSJ
https://www.wsj.com/articles/iea-sees-no-peak-oil-demand-any-time-soon-1488816002
There Will Be An Oil Shortage In The 2020s, Goldman Sachs Says (CNBC)
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/09/goldman-sachs-there-will-be-an-oil-shortage-in-the-2020s.html
Natural gas to become largest energy source by 2030 — IEA
https://www.vanguardngr.com/2018/11/natural-gas-to-become-largest-energy-source-by-2030-iea/
Renewable Energy Is Surging, but Not Fast Enough to Stop Warming
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/renewable-energy-is-surging-but-not-fast-enough-to-stop-warming/
Peak Conventional Oil In Ten Years
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/earth-insight/2013/nov/19/peak-oil-economicgrowth
The Curse of Energy Efficiency
https://thetyee.ca/Opinion/2018/02/26/Energy-Efficiency-Curse/
Vaclav Smil: “The great hope for a quick and sweeping transition to renewable energy is wishful thinking”
https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/the-curious-wavefunction/vaclav-smil-e2809cthe-great-hope-for-a-quick-and-sweeping-transition-to-renewable-energy-is-wishful-thinkinge2809d/
The Long Slow Rise of Solar and Wind – Vaclav Smil
http://vaclavsmil.com/wp-content/uploads/scientificamerican0114-521.pdf
Wind turbines are not helping with energy — they are consuming much more coal in their creation
https://www.spectator.co.uk/2017/05/wind-turbines-are-neither-clean-nor-green-and-they-provide-zero-global-energy/#
Is Renewable Energy Renewable?
https://ozziezehner.com/2013/04/03/is-renewable-energy-renewable/
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v6uVnyjTb58 – 100 min
Global Energy Demand & Carbon Emissions Increase In 2017
https://cleantechnica.com/2018/03/22/global-energy-demand-carbon-emissions-increase-2017/
A new report finds that none of the negative emission technologies has the potential to deliver carbon removals at the gigaton (Gt) scale and at the rate of deployment envisaged by the IPCC, including reforestation, afforestation, carbon-friendly agriculture, bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCs), enhanced weathering, ocean fertilisation, or direct air capture and carbon storage (DACCs).
https://easac.eu/publications/details/easac-net/
Air conditioning will consume 100% of renewable energy by 2050
https://cleantechnica.com/2018/07/13/cooling-people-in-a-hotter-world-could-consume-all-of-worlds-electricity-by-2050/
Large Hydropower Dams ‘Not Sustainable’
https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-46098118
As Prairies Get Plowed for Biofuels, Greens Demand EPA Act
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-10-30/as-prairies-get-plowed-for-biofuels-green-groups-demand-epa-act

Mass Extinction

Humans are sleepwalking into a mass extinction of species not seen since the demise of the dinosaurs | The London Economic
https://www.thelondoneconomic.com/news/humans-are-sleepwalking-into-a-mass-extinction-of-species-not-seen-since-the-demise-of-the-dinosaurs/23/03/
World on track to lose two-thirds of wild animals by 2020, Guardian
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/oct/27/world-on-track-to-lose-two-thirds-of-wild-animals-by-2020-major-report-warns
The World Has Two Years To Secure A Deal To Halt Species Extinction
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/nov/03/stop-biodiversity-loss-or-we-could-face-our-own-extinction-warns-un Agriculture and overuse greater threats to wildlife than climate change, Guardian
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/aug/10/agriculture-and-overuse-greater-threats-to-wildlife-than-climate-change-study
Mass migration of species to cooler climes has profound implications for society, pushing disease-carrying insects, crop pests and crucial pollinators into new areas, Guardian
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/ma30/climate-change-global-reshuffle-of-wildlife-will-have-huge-impacts-on-humanity
Researchers talk of ‘biological annihilation’ as study reveals billions of populations of animals have been lost in recent decades, Guardian
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/jul/10/earths-sixth-mass-extinction-event-already-underway-scientists-warn
70% Of World’s Last Remaining Wilderness Is In Just Five Countries
https://www.independent.co.uk/environment/wilderness-areas-world-wildlife-pristine-biodiversity-conservation-climate-change-capitalism-a8611521.html
The Extinction of Wilderness: The world’s untouched lands and oceans are rapidly disappearing, and scientists are calling for action
https://newrepublic.com/article/151981/extinction-wilderness-untouched-lands-oceans-disappearing
The Extinction Crisis, Center For Biological Diversity
https://www.biologicaldiversity.org/programs/biodiversity/elements_of_biodiversity/extinction_crisis/
How humans are driving the sixth mass extinction, Guardian
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/radical-conservation/2015/oct/20/the-four-horsemen-of-the-sixth-mass-extinction
Earth’s Sixth Mass Extinction Has Begun, New Study Confirms
https://www.iflscience.com/plants-and-animals/earth-s-sixth-mass-extinction-has-begun-new-study-confirms/
Only drastic action can save us from the sixth mass extinction
https://www.wired.co.uk/article/sixth-mass-extinction-animals-wwf-report
Insect Collapse, Guardian
https://amp.theguardian.com/environment/2017/oct/21/insects-giant-ecosystem-collapsing-human-activity-catastrophe?CMP=share_btn_tw&__twitter_impression=true

Water

Water shortages could affect 5bn people by 2050, UN report warns
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/ma19/water-shortages-could-affect-5bn-people-by-2050-un-report-warns
By 2020 about 30-40% of the world will have water scarcity, and according to the researchers, climate change can make this even worse.
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2014/07/140729093112.htm
With only 7% of the world’s freshwater, China plans to produce 807 million gallons a day from desalination by 2020, roughly quadruple the country’s current capacity.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-04-09/china-embraces-desalination-to-ease-water-shortages
By 2025, an estimated 1.8 billion people will live in areas plagued by water scarcity, with two-thirds of the world’s population living in water-stressed regions.
http://environment.nationalgeographic.com/environment/freshwatefreshwater-crisis/
There will be about 1 billion more mouths to feed worldwide by 2025 and global agriculture alone will require another 1 trillion cubic meters of water per year (equal to the annual flow of 20 Niles or 100 Colorado Rivers).
http://www.interactioncouncil.org/world-confronts-serious-water-crisis-former-heads-government-and-experts-warn-new-report
UN studies project that 30 nations will be water scarce in 2025, up from 20 in 1990.
http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/features/2011/06/2011622193147231653.html
According to the U.S. Intelligence Community Assessment of Global Water Security, by 2030 humanity’s “annual global water requirements” will exceed “current sustainable water supplies” by 40%.
http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2012/05/the-coming-global-water-crisis/256896/
Water demand in India will reach 1.5 trillion cubic meters in 2030 while India’s current water supply is only 740 billion cubic meters.
http://www.mckinsey.com/client_service/sustainability/latest_thinking/charting_our_water_future
If current usage trends don’t change, the world will have only 60 percent of the water it needs in 2030.
http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2015/03/20/world/asia/ap-world-water-crisis.html?_r=0
By 2035, the world’s energy consumption will increase by 35 percent, which in turn will increase water use by 15 percent according to the International Energy Agency.
http://www.worldbank.org/en/news/feature/2014/01/16/will-water-constrain-our-energy-future
By the year 2040 there will not be enough water in the world to quench the thirst of the world population and keep the current energy and power solutions going if we continue doing what we are doing today.
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2014/07/140729093112.htm
The number of people living in river basins under severe water stress is projected to reach 3.9 billion by 2050, totaling over 40% of the world’s population.
http://www.globalwaterforum.org/2012/05/21/water-outlook-to-2050-the-oecd-calls-for-early-and-strategic-action/
Compared to today, five times as much land is likely to be under “extreme drought” by 2050.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/6068348.stm
Feeding 9 billion people by 2050, will require a 60 percent increase in agricultural production and a 15 percent increase in water withdrawals.
http://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/wateoverview
Water demand is projected to grow by 55 percent by 2050 (including a 400-percent rise in manufacturing water demand).
http://arstechnica.com/science/2012/03/hot-crowded-and-running-out-of-fuel-earth-of-2050-a-scary-place/
By 2050, 1 in 5 developing countries will face water shortages (UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization).
http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Global-Issues/2012/1202/Global-water-crisis-too-little-too-much-or-lack-of-a-plan
Between 2050 and 2100, there is an 85 percent chance of a drought in the Central Plains and Southwestern United States lasting 35 years or more.
http://www.livescience.com/49794-megadrought-prediction-southwest-plains.html
If farmers in Kansas keep irrigating at present rates, 69 percent of the Ogallala Aquifer will be gone in 50 years.
http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2014/08/140819-groundwater-california-drought-aquifers-hidden-crisis/

Soil

Britain facing food crisis as world's soil 'vanishes in 60 years' - Telegraph
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/earth/agriculture/farming/6828878/Britain-facing-food-crisis-as-worlds-soil-vanishes-in-60-years.html
Only 60 Years of Farming Left If Soil Degradation Continues - Sciam
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/only-60-years-of-farming-left-if-soil-degradation-continues/
We need to protect the world's soil before it's too late - Popular Science
https://www.popsci.com/topsoil-agriculture-food
Soil erosion - Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations
http://www.fao.org/docrep/t0389e/t0389e02.htm
We’re treating soil like dirt. It’s a fatal mistake, as our lives depend on it
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/ma25/treating-soil-like-dirt-fatal-mistake-human-life
Mass starvation is humanity’s fate if we keep flogging the land to death
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/dec/11/mass-starvation-humanity-flogging-land-death-earth-food
75% of Earth's Land Areas Are Degraded (news.nationalgeographic.com)
https://news.nationalgeographic.com/2018/03/ipbes-land-degradation-environmental-damage-report-spd/
Billions of people live on farmland that is deteriorating and producing less food
http://www.thisisplace.org/i/?id=7251ef46-1f44-43d6-a7ed-bde0782e825f

Ecology

The livestock sector could take between 37% and 49% of the GHG budget allowable under the 2°C and 1.5°C targets, respectively, by 2030.
https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/14693062.2018.1528965
Toxic Oilfield Wastewater Used to Grow California Organic Food
https://www.foodandwaterwatch.org/news/toxic-oilfield-wastewater-used-grow-california-food-including-organics
Tropical rainforests may be near a tipping point beyond our control
https://www.salon.com/2018/04/09/tropical-rainforests-may-be-near-a-tipping-point-beyond-our-control_partne
SMARTPHONES = Earth Dead Faster Than Expected
https://www.fastcodesign.com/90165365/smartphones-are-wrecking-the-planet-faster-than-anyone-expected
Sorry, Earth, The Ozone Layer Isn't Healing Itself After All
https://www.forbes.com/sites/startswithabang/2018/02/06/sorry-earth-the-ozone-layer-isnt-healing-itself-after-all/#7c85314f5418
The Earth-Space Battery And The Future of Life on Earth
http://www.pnas.org/content/pnas/112/31/9511.full.pdf
40% of Amazon Rainforest Already destroyed !!!
https://rainforests.mongabay.com/amazon/amazon_destruction.html
Tropical Deforestation Is the Third-Biggest Carbon Emitter in the World
https://psmag.com/environment/tropical-deforestation-leads-to-more-carbon-emissions
Inside the Amazon's deforestation crisis
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/world/amazon-rainforest-deforestation-crisis/article37722932/
Rivers in the Sky: How Deforestation Is Affecting Global Water Cycles
https://e360.yale.edu/features/how-deforestation-affecting-global-water-cycles-climate-change
Palm Oil Was Supposed to Help Save the Planet. Instead It Unleashed a Catastrophe
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/20/magazine/palm-oil-borneo-climate-catastrophe.html
The spiralling environmental cost of our lithium battery addiction
https://www.wired.co.uk/article/lithium-batteries-environment-impact
Air Pollution Is Killing Kids (huffingtonpost.com)
https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/opinion-epa-pollution-health_us_5bf41da3e4b01909c809a8f5

Climate

Bitcoin alone could push global warming above 2°C in 15 years
https://www.futuretimeline.net/blog/2018/10/31.htm
Going Nowhere Fast on Climate, Year After Year
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/12/29/opinion/climate-change-global-warming-history.html
Major natural carbon sink may soon become carbon source
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2018/11/181120073635.htm
Science education must reflect reality: We only have 12 years to stop climate change
https://thehill.com/opinion/education/416082-science-education-must-reflect-reality-we-only-have-12-years-to-stop
Climate Change Causing More Severe Wildfires, Larger Insect Outbreaks in Temperate Forests
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2018/11/181107172914.htm
Uncounted fracking emissions means 2°C by 2030
https://www.desmogblog.com/2018/04/11/climate-change-two-degree-warming-fracking-natural-gas-rush-ingraffea
Australian researchers says energy use per person points to 2C warming by 2030
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/ma10/dangerous-global-warming-will-happen-sooner-than-thought-study
Seafloor Is Dissolving Because of Climate Change
https://motherboard.vice.com/en_us/article/d3qaek/the-seafloor-is-dissolving-because-climate-change?fbclid=IwAR2KlkP4MeakBnBeZkMSO_Q-ZVBRp1ZPMWz2EIJCI6J8fKStRSyX_gIM0-w
Scientists ponder risk of abrupt climate shift
https://www.yaleclimateconnections.org/2018/10/unknowingly-on-edge-of-a-climate-precipice/
Are we losing one of our biggest carbon dioxide sinks?
https://phys.org/news/2018-11-biggest-carbon-dioxide.html Ocean Storms Could Alter Kelp Forest Ecosystems
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2018/10/181030091427.htm

Artificial Intelligence

A.I. will replace 50% of all jobs in 10 years
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/04/27/kai-fu-lee-robots-will-replace-half-of-all-jobs.html A.I. will replace 50% of all jobs by 2025, a Swiss think-tank has warned
https://www.express.co.uk/news/science/1018786/Artificial-intelligence-AI-robots-replace-humans-machines-take-over-jobs Robot automation will 'take 800 million jobs by 2030'
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-42170100 Doctors and lawyers will lose jobs to A.I. too
https://www.post-gazette.com/business/tech-news/2017/10/23/WorkZone-Yes-doctors-lawyers-automation-Vivek-Wadhwa-The-Driver-in-the-Driverless-Castories/201710220061

Species Feminization

Males of All Species are Becoming More Female
https://articles.mercola.com/sites/articles/archive/2009/01/01/males-of-all-species-are-becoming-more-female.aspx
Pollution Causing Feminization of Males Across Multiple Species, The Independent
http://www.banderasnews.com/0812/eden-feminization.htm
Environmental impact of estrogens on human, animal and plant life, Science Direct
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0160412016304494
Warming warning over turtle feminization, PhysOrg
https://phys.org/news/2018-12-turtle-feminization.html
Environmental Warming and Feminization of Sea Turtle Populations, Cell.com
https://www.cell.com/current-biology/fulltext/S0960-9822(17)31539-7
Demasculinization and feminization of male gonads by atrazine: Consistent effects across vertebrate classes, NIH
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4303243/
Are Endocrine Disruptors Blurring Issues of Gender? NIC
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1281309/
Background fish feminization effects in European remote sites, Nature
https://www.nature.com/articles/srep11292
Endocrine Disruption Found in Fish Exposed to Municipal Wastewater, USGS
https://toxics.usgs.gov/highlights/wastewater_fish.html
Evolution or Extinction of Men, Women's Health
www.hormonesmatter.com/endocrine-disruptors-mens-health/
Pharmaceuticals, Personal Care Products, and Endocrine Disruptors in Water
https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/b1e1/5a9dc18bec0de564d9b23fb7e8014b21422e.pdf

Stupification

The impact of exposure to air pollution on cognitive performance, PNAS
https://www.pnas.org/content/115/37/9193
Seniors and men are especially vulnerable to cognitive decline due to dirty air, Motherboard
https://motherboard.vice.com/en_us/article/xwkj7q/air-pollution-can-make-us-dumber-study-finds
Is air pollution making us stupider?
http://www.theweek.co.uk/96086/is-air-pollution-making-us-stupider
'Suppressed' EU report could have banned 31 pesticides worth billions, the report said pesticides are making us stupid, depressed and infertile, Guardian
https://munchies.vice.com/en_us/article/8qk3wb/a-new-european-report-claims-pesticides-make-us-stupid-depressed-and-infertile
Western diet cause reduced cognition, declining cognition and dementia, NIH
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5437154/
Too Much Screen Time Damages the Brain
https://www.psychologytoday.com/ca/blog/mental-wealth/201402/gray-matters-too-much-screen-time-damages-the-brain
What Screen Time Can Really Do to Kids' Brains
https://www.psychologytoday.com/ca/blog/behind-online-behavio201604/what-screen-time-can-really-do-kids-brains
Your smartphone📱is making you👈 stupid, antisocial 🙅 and unhealthy 😷. So why can't you put it down❔⁉️, The Globe & Mail
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/technology/your-smartphone-is-making-you-stupid/article37511900/
Myopia Epidemic From Too Much Screen Time, Not Enough Sunlight
https://keck.usc.edu/too-much-screen-time-is-raising-rate-of-childhood-myopia/

Demasculinization

Non-stick Frying Pans Making Penises Smaller
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-6462775/Mens-penises-half-inch-smaller-chemicals-non-stick-frying-pans.html
Western Male Sperm Counts Down 60% in 40 years
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/sperm-count-west-men-health-drop-60-per-cent-years-modern-life-a7859491.html
Generational decline in testosterone levels observed, (2007) Helio
https://www.healio.com/endocrinology/hormone-therapy/news/print/endocrine-today/%7Bac23497d-f1ed-4278-bbd2-92bb1e552e3a%7D/generational-decline-in-testosterone-levels-observed
You're Not The Man Your Father Was, Forbes
https://www.forbes.com/sites/neilhowe/2017/10/02/youre-not-the-man-your-father-was/#22a2609d8b7f
Lower testosterone levels in men are related to depression, lethargy, weight gain and lower cognitive ability.
Millennial men are significantly weaker than their fathers, The Telegraph
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/08/15/millennial-men-are-significantly-weaker-than-their-fathers/
Ship of Fools, Tucker Carlson
https://books.google.ca/books?id=Q_10DwAAQBAJ&pg=PA204&lpg=PA204&dq=Lower+testosterone+levels+in+men+are+related+to+depression,+lethargy,+weight+gain+and+lower+cognitive+ability.&source=bl&ots=gRWKRyp2MW&sig=y8tpuvyqW9v9AuN5CdXqz6x5PRI&hl=en&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwianojPucXfAhWCiYMKHcjEBIkQ6AEwEXoECAwQAQ

Academic And Scientific Fraud

1,500 scientists lift the lid on reproducibility
https://www.nature.com/news/1-500-scientists-lift-the-lid-on-reproducibility-1.19970
Is the Peer Review Process a Scam? - enago academy
https://www.enago.com/academy/is-peer-review-process-a-scam/
Let's end reviewer fraud - Publons
https://publons.com/blog/lets-end-reviewer-fraud/
107 cancer papers retracted due to peer review fraud | Ars Technica
https://arstechnica.com/science/2017/04/107-cancer-papers-retracted-due-to-peer-review-fraud/
Peer review: a flawed process at the heart of science - Google Scholar
http://scholar.google.ca/scholar_url?url=http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/pdf/10.1177/014107680609900414&hl=en&sa=X&scisig=AAGBfm0D9oaDV4YG6rsHdvwE8ygJ8b4dgA&nossl=1&oi=scholarr
Why scientists need to do more about research fraud - Guardian
https://www.theguardian.com/science/occams-corne2018/jan/04/science-fraud-research-misconduct
Canadian researchers who commit scientific fraud are protected by privacy laws - The Toronto Star
https://www.theguardian.com/science/occams-corne2018/jan/04/science-fraud-research-misconduct
China cracks down after investigation finds massive peer-review fraud - science mag
http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2017/07/china-cracks-down-after-investigation-finds-massive-peer-review-fraud
The Bottom of the Barrel of Science Fraud - Neuroskeptic
http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/neuroskeptic/2017/11/30/worst-science-fraud/
Peer-Review Fraud — Hacking the Scientific Publication Process | NEJM
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMp1512330
Scientific Fraud - EuroScientist journal
https://www.euroscientist.com/theme/scientific-fraud/
5 Common Types of Pharmaceutical Frauds You Should Know About!
https://community.intelex.com/explore/posts/5-common-types-pharmaceutical-frauds-you-should-know-about
Tribalization Tribalization. Why War is Coming
https://www.bozar.be/en/activities/146841-tribalization-why-war-is-coming
How America's identity politics went from inclusion to division
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2018/ma01/how-americas-identity-politics-went-from-inclusion-to-division
submitted by SuperMax33 to environment [link] [comments]

Becoming the Bitcoin Educator: Fundraising!

Hello fellow bitcoiners. My name is Adam and I am young student from Eastern Europe. I am also a big fan of technology and science. I write a lot, mainly articles. My dream is to become Bitcoin Educator.
To start the project, that will introduce the beautiful idea of Bitcoin to people who really need it. To the people who are financially oppressed by their government. To people who can’t be sure if the hard earned money on their bank accounts are truly their own.
I have been lucky enough to hear about Satoshi Nakamoto’s invention, which gathered and combined a years of research in modern cryptography to create the next evolution of money. Despite all the hype during bull market he have witnessed a year ago, after hours of my own research and analysis I still think many of us don’t really know how powerful tool Bitcoin is. You can’t talk about Bitcoin without its price, but the lack of fundamental understanding what Bitcoin is and what it isn’t, about its capabilities, have driven me to a conclusion, that we need more people who will educate others about Bitcoin. Our mission is to tell the world about this invention. And this is where my new path begins.
Concerned with the rise of, what I call, asymmetric dictatorship in the country of my origins and that this is the best possible time to introduce Bitcoin to people who will, in the near future, really need it, I have decided to start a blog. But I am not interested in crypto blogs you see a lot, sketchy news filled with ads of ICOs selling dreams to the investors. I am interested in sharing real knowledge about Bitcoin to the people who needs it.
Being obsessed with mathematics and physics I am interested into science that makes Bitcoin works. I am interested in teaching people why should the use Bitcoin, and how to do it safely. I want to spread the adoption, educate and put a lot of hard work into it.
Project is called HejBitcoin, or in English: HiBitcoin. To start this project I will need your help. I bought my first Bitcoin in 2017, and despite great ROI on my investment I needed to sell everything to get money for an operation after the injury on rugby game, but I am determinate to not end my journey with Bitcoin and cryptography. As a 18y old student I am busting my ass to learn everything needed to pass the exams with good marks and work evenings to make some money to start this project.
I want HiBitcoin to be an open ecosystem. Ecosystem, which will be able to teach you about Bitcoin in a easy-to-understand and funny way. The project that will boost the adoption and recognition of Bitcoin in my country.
I want it to be a source that people can trust when it comes to crypto-related knowledge. I want it to be the highest standard I can possibly get. I want people to say hi to Bitcoin!
I have made this ROADMAP to also not give up. Saying that you will do something is easy, but actually doing it will be harder than I potentially think right now.
ROADMAP for 2019: PHASE 1 “Genesis”
1) January — February:
- Start of the work. Ensure that the blog is up and running. Register the domain, configurate the server, make all the graphics, start the social media sites to say hi to the world — aka first steps.
- First educational series, coming in 9 parts: “Hi, my name is Bitcoin” about the very fundamental things about Bitcoin — what the hell it is, how can we benefit from using it, what this fancy technology behind it called the blockchain really is and so on. FUNDAMENTALS! Full focus on Bitcoin.
- Start of the cooperation with local libraries: distribution of Bitcoin related books I will buy.
- Second, very easy to understand, series (one of the most important mini-series on the blog, something that was A BIG problem for me when I started my journey with Bitcoin) about the ecosystem surrounding Bitcoin. That means — wallets: how to use them safely, ensure that you won’t lost them by a mistake, etc., exchanges, how to send and receive Bitcoins and more.
2) March — April:
- “Don’t get scammed” series. This will conclude the research of the variety of topics. From explanations of confusing things about Bitcoin — from topics covering things like :why the traditional news sources thinks about it as a pyramid scheme and why they are totally wrong, to practices used by digital thiefs and how you can stay safe.
- Along with this, I will be creating something that interest me the most — Bitcoin and the real science behind it. Series will be called: “Bitcoin and beyond”. Not only will it cover the topics about mathematics and cryptography being the fundament of Bitcoin system, but also will take a deep dive into encryption algorithms, consensus mechanisms and more. This series will show why the vision and idea of Bitcoin is so powerful and groundbreaking, and why do we need to put a LOT bigger attention to academic research of cryptocurrencies and blockchain technology.
- Last but not least — those months will be the beginning of HiBitcoin getting some recognition. My goal will be to get away from the computer for some time and try to spread the idea of cryptocurrencies among traditional medias. By using my old contacts, I will try to get a few anonymous interview about the technology and how it can change a lot of industries: from fintech and worldwide money transfers to supply chains.
3) May:
- The first two weeks of May are the time of my final exams. So I will post only a few blog posts prepared earlier while I will prepare to past the exams.
- From the second half of May, my 4 months long break starts. This will be the time of hard work on HiBitcoin. If the fundraising ends well, it will be possible to me to work full time on this. If not, I won’t stop, but I will need to work less on HiBitcoin because of the normal, full time job to fund the college. But don’t worry, the initiative will still go on like freaking train!
PHASE 2 “Green market strikes back!”
1) June — August :
- Keeping in mind that if the market start rising again, the public attention will again turn their eyes on Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies. This will be the time for me to leverage all the work done before — By using the techniques of direct marketing I will make sure that the vast majority of people new to Bitcoin will have a chance to read my guides and articles. My plan is to integrate and collaborate with some well-known science blogs in my country to get more attention to my blog.
- Summer means more getting out of the screen and doing work in field. That means connecting to the people already in the crypto in my country, and trying to start some small educational projects with them, to leverage their better position. I think, this will be hell of the fun.
- These are the months I will try to get at least one talented person to work pro bono with me. The idea is to expand the technology vision of Bitcoin, not keep it to myself, so I will need more authors. It won’t be more that one or two people, to make sure that the standards are still the highest I can have, but I am sure that working in small team will add some more creativity and push us for even harder work.
- Continuation of series already mentioned before.
- Start of the series: “Ecology and Bitcoin” — the topic that interest me a lot, but not many people are even aware of it. I will research the possibilities of Bitcoin and crypto being the things that will push renewable energy industry further in development and expansion. This series will also cover every aspects of Bitcoin’s mining and will be a good addition to science series about consensus mechanisms.
2) August — end of September:
- As I mentioned, PHASE 2 will include the further development of the educational ecosystem I am trying to build. Those months, besides involvement in blogging will start be a start of YouTube HiBitcoin channel. I am quite charismatic person, and as the greatest minds in film industry says: one good frame is sometimes better than a book of words. With Youtube channel I will be able to reach wider audience.
- By creating funny, entertaining but also simple to understand and thought-provoking content, I will spread the word about bitcoin to a lot of people. I’v never filmed anything, but I am ready to learn everything. It will be time-consuming but I want to do this, and nothing will f*cking stop me!
Why YouTube channel one may ask? This is the great question, I am delighted to ask. Current channels about Bitcoin in my country, focus more on the price of shitcoins than real technology and possibilities. Rather than explaining what smart-contracts are, they are talking endlessly about the possible price of Ethereum. Speculation is great, but it isn’t building anything. You earn money, nothing more, nothing less. And this isn’t my goal. That’s why I want to create YouTube channel. And make it different.
- Security is one of the most important topic when it comes to crypto. This will be in-deep series about every wallets available on the market. Mostly I will focus on hard-wallets, and make reviews plus tests of the most popular crypto hard wallets.
- People should know how to do things. This is why, the next mini-series will be about setting their own node, mesh networks or even Bitcoin’ satellites! I want to show people that this is possible, and everyone can do this. Plus, it is a lot of fun!
PHASE 3 “Just Q3–4”
1) September — end of December
- These are some long term ideas and plans, and since I don’t have any idea what HiBitcoin will become by then, my goal is to further expand the project, besides the blog, youtube, and other social media channels.
- The goal is to establish the collaboration with academic facilities to create a simple network, on which researchers and young students, will be able to post their science papers about the crypto-related topics. By this time, I want HiBitcoin to be recognized. This will allow me to take a part in crypto-related events and maybe even speak on them.
- Add another great authors to the blog. Start a few more series, I want to keep a secret, because of the time they will consume, but I think it is worth waiting!
Personal fundraising in era of big ICOs
This is why I would like to make a fundraising. I don’t have working PC (I am writing this post from my friend’s laptop). Gathering money from evenings job will delay the start of my projects by nearly half year (this is the time I will need to work to do it by myself), but I would like to not waste my time. Perhaps I should have asked in bull market, when we were on the top and everyone was filthy rich, but I think this is the greatest time to start. To build when nothing can steal my attention.
But why raise funds with Bitcoin or other cryptos? No platform is better to do it better than Bitcoin. Cryptocurrencies, with its open and public nature, are the best for raising any funds. Blockchain ensure that every donator can see where his donation is migrating and if funds are not being defrauded. No other fundraising system can be more trusted than blockchains.
As I mentioned before. Despite my true love for global community, I would like to start locally. That being said, I will focus on the country I live, the country with possible 35 milion people to be introduced to the idea of Bitcoin. Every learning material, every blog post will be written in my native language. Why? I won’t conquer the world with a blog site, no matter how good it will be. But HiBitcoin has a possibility to become educational facility in the country of my origins, to serve both as a source of trustful educational information about Bitcoin and cryptography to everyone and in the end become the institution that will for example encourage a young innovators and scientist to publish their books and academic workpaper on the site on which many people will see their work and maybe even start their own research.
You won’t get any tokens by supporting me. You won’t be able to dump the shares of my work on any exchange. But the ROI the whole Bitcoin network, so also you, the bitcoin HODLER, will get might be high if I succeed. The return on this “investment” is wider adoption of Bitcoin. So, if you would like to help me with this, these are my fundraising goals!
GOAL ONE: 0.264289 BTC or 1000$.
* Build the workplace. This will allow me to buy a new computer on which I will work for the next years. * Buy the basic hosting for my site.
GOAL TWO: 0.4 BTC or 1700$.
* This will allow me to start a collaboration with public libraries in my city and fund a big basket of crypto-related books: “Mastering Bitcoin”, “Internet of money”, “Mastering Ethereum” or “Bitcoin standard”. Books will be distributed to every major library in the place I live. I will make sure that they will get good place in those places so people can really see and read them — learning about blockchain and Bitcoin.
GOAL THREE: 2500$
* Third goal for a fundraising is getting money to start** PHASE TWO of HiBitcoin**, transit my knowledge and work on the professional YouTube channel for local audience, the channel on which I will leverage everything I have done before, sharing the knowledge in even more simple way, by the lenses of camera.
* If this goal is reached I will be able to buy professional digital camera to make a videos explaining every aspects of crypto technology and of course Bitcoin. My goal is to buy Nikon D5300 which costs 630$ or around 0.18 BTC. I am aware that with high probability I am not going to reach this goal but this is what I am aiming for.
FINAL GOAL: 1.4BTC or 5000$:
* Work on HiBitcoin for a nearly full time, 12 hours a day. I won’t need to go to “normal” job and delay the HiBitcoin project. Every satoshi above this goals will mean that I won’t starve to death while writing about Elliptic Curve Cryptography or SHA function.
GETTING THINGS DONE: ADDRESSES FOR FUNDRAISING
So, this is the new address I have created to fundraise BTC for this project. I am excited as hell to be able to hopefully, finally work on it. Remember, you are investing into spreading the adoption of Bitcoin network. I am only the guy who will try his best to make some difference. Let’s get to work guys! And thank you a lot for every satoshi!
Ps. Yes I will tell people that they can buy a part of Bitcoin
Since This forum is banned from posting any btc address, please visit my Medium site for donation! LINK
To remind people that Bitcoin was meant to be a currency I will try to buy everything without converting BTC to fiat currency!
Every satoshi donated will be covered by my sweat and blood into free education for people. Into the knowledge about open, borderless, free ecosystem. Thank you, and say hi to Bitcoin!
submitted by stokarz to btc [link] [comments]

Consent, Consensus, Karma, and Blockchains

First, a disclaimer: this is a shower thought, not a grant proposal or a dissertation. Some of the details may be half-baked (or, more precisely, very little is backed up with a bibliography containing only peer-reveiwed sources), but I want to explore this topic with others and not just roll it around in my own head.
As frequent C_S_T readers may know, I've been writing in this sub about reality-as-information and some of its implications. Here is one fully worked out model of reality-as-information. I have not yet invested the time to understand every last detail, but I present it as evidence that somebody (Christopher Langan in this case) has worked out a seemingly coherent model. Another, less fully worked out model has been suggested by Stephan Wolfram. There may be other, better models, or else smaller-scope models that have been linked more closely with established physical theories, but these are the ones I have encountered most recently. So a fundamental basis of this post is that our reality is simply a system of information being processed somehow (by itself, by a metaphysical computer, by God, who knows). As such, many computational metaphors apply and some may offer insight.
Today I had it on my list of things to contemplate two separate, seemingly unrelated concepts, each for separate reasons. The first was simply the blockchain, i.e. the mundane computing technology that makes bitcoin, ethereum, and other innovations possible. The second idea was that of consent as it applies to metaphysical dynamics. The latter emerged from various conversations I've had recently with folks around here, concerning the idea that predatory interests must gain your consent before being enabled to attack you. The reason given is that it is some kind of karmic law. However, I believe in neither a ledger-based system of quantitative karma (i.e. God or some more impersonal entity keeps a cosmic ledger of "good" and "bad" deeds) nor do I believe in any kind of central authority that enforces a karmic law. Though they are common enough in new-age circles, these are Western bastardizations of a more elegant concept that can essentially be characterized as metaphysical cause-and-effect. The flavor of karma, in this sense, is that it is enforced in a distributed manner, much the same way that the laws of physics, as we understand them, are enforced locally and (seemingly) not by a central authority. Maybe now you can see where I'm going with this...
On blockchains. From wikipedia:
A blockchain – originally block chain – is a distributed database that is used to maintain a continuously growing list of records, called blocks. Each block contains a timestamp and a link to a previous block. A blockchain is typically managed by a peer-to-peer network collectively adhering to a protocol for validating new blocks. By design, blockchains are inherently resistant to modification of the data. Once recorded, the data in any given block cannot be altered retroactively without the alteration of all subsequent blocks and the collusion of the network.
(Note to academic purists: I realize Wikipedia is not an authoritative source, I link for convenience, ease-of-understanding for a lay person, and also personal laziness. I invite you to follow the bibliographies provided in the Wikipedia articles, these are usually pretty decent.)
You will note, if you read the Wikipedia article, that the foundational technology that makes blockchains possible is the hash tree:
In cryptography and computer science, a hash tree or Merkle tree is a tree in which every non-leaf node is labelled with the hash of the labels or values (in case of leaves) of its child nodes. Hash trees allow efficient and secure verification of the contents of large data structures.
You may also note that, topologically, trees are special cases of directed acyclic graphs, or DAGs. Finally, you may also note that DAGs are used to model causation (for more details see Judea Pearl's magnum opus). Wolfram's information-processing model seems to be consistent with a DAG formulation of causality.
While there is currently no mundane-world application, to my knowledge, for the idea of a hash-DAG, it doesn't take much imagination to see how such a data structure could generalize the concept of a hash-tree. Thus I propose that a metaphor for how causal reality is "processed" and resolved among different observers is something like a hash-DAG. In this metaphor, each "event" is a transaction, and the integrity of all transactions is maintained by a natural, distributed system which maintains the blockchain representing a particular timeline. I am acknowledging here the possibility of multiple timelines, but each such timeline must have its own blockchain. The cryptographic data-integrity check is important because there may be temporary "offshoots" that are inconsistent with a main chain and require resolution. For random examples, see Donnie Darko, this near-death-experience, or any good post in Glitch_in_the_Matrix. An excerpt from the NDERF story:
I knew that unless I soon selected one of these realities to slide back into, that the wheel would coerce the situation by deciding for me. One way or another, I WOULD be 'sorted' whether I liked it or not. If I didn’t choose for myself, I would simply be fitted into place at some nearest position on the wheel to the point where I failed to make the decision
However, the blockchain data structure does not confer a 100% guarantee against corrupton of a particular blockchain, only a guarantee that the probability of corruption is low. Also, a blockchain can be hard-forked by agreement, i.e. consensus (note the common root of consensus and consent). Also, what seems implicitly clear is that with enough collusion among a large enough consortium of parties, the probability of corruption (of course biased towards particular, favored transactions) can be increased.
An immediate application of the metaphor is this: a predatory interest must gain your consent on some level (usually unconscious) so that your transaction block harmonizes with theirs and is allowed to be recorded on blockchain of the central timeline. This obviously resolves the issue of consent being part of karmic law: karmic law is simply the rules for processing blockchains, and these rules require mutual consent for a valid transaction to be recorded.
But, there is a more insidious application: that of forks. One issue that comes up from time-to-time here in this sub or in the pit, is the issue of elite disclosure. I have heard it said that elites are required to "disclose" their intentions as part of karmic law. See this article for a reasonably balanced discussion of this idea. On its face, the idea makes no sense. However, if you apply the concepts above, it begins to appear more plausible. The disclosures are really attempts to secure unconscious consent. It occurs to me now that if a certain consortium of interests wishes to execute or even forge a particular set of transactions, possibly even forking the blockchain (timeline) in a direction to its advantage, it might attempt to secure the consent of a broader coalition of other interests, including those that stand to "lose" in the proposed set of transactions, to dramatically increase its odds of success. So this idea potentially also explains the karmic necessity of Revelation-of-the-Method.
If it seems like I'm just adding a lot of unnecessary structure to already servicable concepts like Jung's collective unconscious, you may be correct. But what I think I am doing is trying to understand the "laws of karma" using detailed metaphors that link back to mundane concepts for which we already have a great deal of knowledge, and see what these metaphors may tell us about the more abstract/metaphysical concept. Here, I may have explained why (at least to myself) consent is required in an attack, and why elites seem to broadcast their intentions, but always in as oblique a manner as possible. A practical application may be in a prospective reading of mainstream culture in order to infer sinister intentions (I realize many people are already doing this, Christopher Knowles comes to mind), but, more importantly, to assist in the discovery of methodologies that may thwart these intentions.
After all, this is all psychic warfare, at one level or another.
submitted by OsoFeo to C_S_T [link] [comments]

Ernst Zundel died. Let's keep a running tally of reactions.

You know, for posterity.
Note: Many of these comments, if they're downvoted at all, get the "controversial" tag. Weird!
someoneonthelnternet gives us: 'Uhh why is this news? "Some guy who believed X is dead, let's write a news article about it". Who gives a fuck?' Would you believe he's a regular in t_d, kotakuinaction, uncensorednews, tumblrinaction, hillaryforprison, sjwhate, metacanada, conspiracy, hatecrimehoaxes, and russia? Because he is!
mrhrvat: This t_d, bitcoin and dogemining poweruser offered '"If you don't agree with my version of history you're a bigot" You need to research the "holocaust" buddy. We were taught a lie.' What a sweetie! In a series of now-deleted posts, he goes on quite a lot about the Holocaust is a lie. Definitely the most, uh... tenacious user I ran into today.
Bonus trivia: mrhrvat's grandparents were Nazis! No, I'm not joking!
invinover, the Frasier Crane of Holocaust denial: " It doesn't take a conspiracy nut to recognize that the whole topic is problematic for anyone interested in honest academic inquiry."
Old-school Runescape superfan DMMandLMSucks gives us: "The fact it's illegal to deny such a thing makes it very suspicious. What are they trying to hide??"
Proud metacanadian throwitdown9201 offers: "It's you that will burn in hell," in response to another user's positive response to the news of Zundel's death.
"no harm in denying something," suggests another original Runescape fan (who knew there'd be two in the same thread! Suspici... I mean, amazing!), OfficialRpM.
Phette wrote "Goodnight sweet prince," which we all thought was sarcasm until we read his post history. Yikes!
Updates throughout the day.
submitted by LesterBePiercin to TorontoAnarchy [link] [comments]

Bi-Weekly Rational Feed

===Highly Recommended Articles:
Superintelligence Risk Project Update II by Jeff Kaufman - Jeff's thoughts and the sources he found most useful. Project is wrapping up in a few day. Topics: Technical Distance to AI. Most plausible scenarios of Superintelligence risk. OpenPhil's notes on how progress was potentially stalled in Cryonics and Nanotech.
Superintelligence Risk Project Update by Jeff Kaufman - Links to the three most informative readings on AI risk. Details on the large number of people Jeff has talked to. Three fundamental points of view on AI-Safety. Three Fundamental points of disagreement. An update on the original questions Jeff was trying to answer.
Podcast The World Needs Ai Researchers Heres How To Become One by 80,000 Hours - "OpenAI’s latest plans and research progress. Concrete Papers in AI Safety, which outlines five specific ways machine learning algorithms can act in dangerous ways their designers don’t intend - something OpenAI has to work to avoid. How listeners can best go about pursuing a career in machine learning and AI development themselves."
Radical Book Club The Decentralized Left by davidzhines (Status 451) - The nature of leftwing organizing and what righties can learn from it. An exposition of multiple books on radical left organization building. Major themes are "doing the work" and "decentralized leadership".
Study Of The Week To Remediate Or Not To Remediate by Freddie deBoer - Should low math proficiency students take remedial algebra or credit bearing statistics. The City University of New York ran an actual randomized study to test this. The study had pretty good controls. For example students were randomly assigned to three groups, participating professors taught one section of each group.
Kenneth Arrow On The Welfare Economics Of Medical Care A Critical Assessment by Artir (Nintil) - "Kenneth Arrow wrote a paper in 1963, Uncertainty and the Welfare Economics of Medical Care. This paper tends to appear in debates regarding whether healthcare can be left to the market (like bread), or if it should feature heavy state involvement. Here I explain what the paper says, and to what extent it is true."
Becoming Stronger Together by b4yes (lesswrong) - "About a year ago, a secret rationalist group was founded. This is a report of what the group did during that year."
The Destruction Of American Cuisine by Small Truths - America used to have a tremendous number of regional cuisines, most are dead. They were killed by supermarkets and frozen food. This has been costly both in terms of culture and health (antibiotic resistance, crop monoculture risk)
===Scott:
Targeting Meritocracy by Scott Alexander - Education and merit are different. Programming is one of the last meritocracies, this lets disadvantaged people get into the field. If a job is high impact we want to hire on merit. The original, literal meaning of meritocracy is important.
Classified Thread 2 Best In Classified by Scott Alexander - Scott is promoting a project to accelerate the trend of rationalists living near each other. There are four houses available for rent near Ward Street in Berkeley. Ward street is currently the rationalist hub in the Bay. Commenters can advertise other projects and services.
Url Of Sandwich by Scott Alexander - Standard links post, somewhat longer than usual.
Opec Thread by Scott Alexander - Bi-weekly open thread. Update on Scott and Katja's travels. Salt Lake City Meetup highlight. Topher Brennan is running for Senate.
Can We Link Perception And Cognition by Scott Alexander - SSC survey optical illusions. "So there seems to be a picture where high rates of perceptual ambiguity are linked to being weirder and (sometimes, in a very weak statistical way) lower-functioning." Speculation about fundamental connections between perception and cognitive style. Ideas for further research.
Change Minds Or Drive Turnout by Scott Alexander - Extreme candidates lower turnout among their own party. Is base turnout really the only thing that matters? Lots of quotes from studies.
===Rationalist:
Learning From Past Experiences by mindlevelup - "This is about finding ways to quickly learn from past experiences to inform future actions. We briefly touch upon different learning models." Model-based and Model-Free reinforcement learning. Practical advice and examples.
How Long Has Civilization Been Going by Elo (BearLamp) - Human agricultural society is only 342-1000 generations old. "Or when you are 24 years old you have lived one day for every year humans have had written records." Human civilization is only a few hundred lifetimes old.
Choices Are Bad by Zvi Moshowitz - Choices reduce perceived value. Choices require time and energy. Making someone choose is imposing a real cost.
Erisology Of Self And Will: The Gulf by Everything Studies - "Part 4 will discuss some scientific disciplines with bearing on the self, and how their results are interpreted differently by the traditional paradigm vs. the scientific."
Philosophy Vs Duck Tests by Robin Hanson - Focusing on deep structure vs adding up weak cues. If it looks like an x... More discussion of whether most people will consider ems people and/or conscious.
Knowing How To Define by AellaGirl - "These are three ways in which a word can be ‘defined’ – the role it plays in the world around it (the up-definition), synonyms (lateral-definition), and the parts which construct the thing (down-definition)." Applications to morality and free-will.
Change Is Bad by Zvi Moshowitz - "Change space, like mind space, is deep and wide. Friendly change space isn’t quite to change space what friendly mind space is to mind space, but before you apply any filters of common sense, it’s remarkably close." A long list of conditions that mean change has lower expected value. Why we still need to make changes. Keep your eyes open.
Meditation Insights Suffering And Pleasure Are Intrinsically Bound Together by Kaj Sotala - The concrete goal of meditation is to train your peripheral awareness. Much suffering comes from false promises of pleasure. Procrastinating to play a videogame won't actually make you feel better. Temptation losses its power once you truly see the temptations for what they truly are.
Be My Neighbor by Katja Grace - Katja lives in a rationalist house on ward street in Berkeley and its great. The next step up is a rationalist neighborhood. Katja is promoting the same four houses as Scott. Be her neighbor?
What Value Subagents by G Gordan (Map and Territory) - Splitting the mind into subagents is a common rationalist model (links to Alicorn, Briene Yudkowsky, etc). However the author preferred model is a single process with inconsistent preferences. Freud. System 1 and System 2. The rider and the Elephant become one. Subagents as masks. Subagents as epicycles.
The Order Of The Soul by Ben Hoffman (Compass Rose) - The philosophy of accepting things vs the impulse to reshape them. Many philosophical and psychological models split the soul into three. Internalized authority vs seeing the deep structure of moral reality. In some sense math is the easiest thing in the world to learn. School poisons the enjoyment of rational thought. Lockhart's lament. Feynman. Eichmann and thinking structurally.
Aliens Merely Sleeping by Tyler Cowen - The universe is currently too hot for artificial life to be productive. Advanced civilizations might be freezing themselves until the universe cools. "They could achieve up to 1030 times more than if done today" [short]
Book Reviews by Torello (lesswrong) - Rationalist Adjacent. Each book has an interesting 'ideas per page' rating. Homo Deus, Sapiens, Super-intelligence, Surfaces and Essences, What Technology Wants, Inside Jokes, A Skeptic's Guide to the Mind.
Geometers Scribes Structure Intelligence by Ben Hoffman (Compass Rose) - "How does spatial reasoning lead to formal, logical reasoning?" Fluid and crystalized intelligence. Some history of Philosophy. How social dynamics lead to the evolution of reasoning. Talmudic and Western law, and their oddities. Universal Grammar and connecting with the divine. FizzBuzz.
High Dimensional Societies by Robin Hanson - In high dimensional space the distance between points varies less. What implications does this have for 'spatial' social science models (ex analogues of 1D spectrums and 2D graphs).
Feelings In The Map by Elo (BearLamp) - Confusion is not a property of the external world. The same holds for many emotions. Non-violent communication and speaking from your own perspective.
Lesswrong Is Not About Forum Software by enye-word (lesswrong) - The best way to increase activity on lesswrong is to get back the top posters, especially Scott and Eliezer.
Explication by mindlevelup - "This essay is about explication, the notion of making things specific. I give some examples involving Next Actions and systematization. This might also just be obvious to many people. Part of it is also a rehash of Act Into Uncertainty. Ultimately, explication is about changing yourself."
Concrete Instructions by Elo (BearLamp) - "The objective test of whether the description is concrete is whether the description can be followed by an anonymous person to produce the same experience." Some examples including the 'paper folding game'.
Human Seems Low Dimensional by Robin Hanson - 'Humanness' seems to be a one dimensional variable. Hence people are likely to consider ems conscious and worthy of decent treatment since ems are human-like on many important factors. Some discussion of a study where people rated how human-like various entities were.
Erisology Of Self And Will: A Natural Offering by Everything Studies - A description of naturalism and it relation to science. Daniel Dennet. Many philosophers are still dualists about the self. The self as a composite. Freedom as emergent.
The Hungry Brain by Bayesian Investor - A short review that focuses on the basics of Guynet's ideas and meta-discussion of why Guynet included so much neuroscience. "Guyenet provides fairly convincing evidence that it’s simple to achieve a healthy weight while feeling full. (E.g. the 20 potatoes a day diet)."
Boost From The Best by Robin Hanson - [Age of Em] How many standard deviations above the mean will be the best em be? How much better will they be than the second best em? How much of a wage/leisure premium will the best em receive.
Becoming Stronger Together by b4yes (lesswrong) - "About a year ago, a secret rationalist group was founded. This is a report of what the group did during that year."
In Praise Of Fake Frameworks by Valentine (lesswrong) - "I use a lot of fake frameworks — that is, ways of seeing the world that are probably or obviously wrong in some important way. I think this is an important skill. There are obvious pitfalls, but I think the advantages are more than worth it. In fact, I think the "pitfalls" can even sometimes be epistemically useful."
Letter To Future Layperson by Sailor Vulcan (BYS) - A letter from someone in our age to someone post singularity. Description of the hardships and terrors of pre-singularity life. Emotional and poetic. ~5K words.
===AI:
Conversation With An Ai Researcher by Jeff Kaufman - The anonymous researcher thinks AI progress is almost entirely driven by hardware and data. Back propagation has existed for a long time. Go would have taken at least 10 more years if go-aI work had remained constrained by academic budgets.
Openai Baselines PPO by Open Ai - "We’re releasing a new class of reinforcement learning algorithms, Proximal Policy Optimization (PPO), which perform comparably or better than state-of-the-art approaches while being much simpler to implement and tune. PPO has become the default reinforcement learning algorithm at OpenAI because of its ease of use and good performance."
Superintelligence Risk Project Update II by Jeff Kaufman - Jeff's thoughts and the sources he found most useful. Project is wrapping up in a few day. Topics: Technical Distance to AI. Most plausible scenarios of Superintelligence risk. OpenPhil's notes on how progress was potentially stalled in Cryonics and Nanotech.
Real Debate Robots Education by Tyler Cowen - Robots are already becoming part of the classroom. K-12 is an artificially creation anyway. Robots can help autistic or disabled children. Children sometimes trust robots too much.
Robust Adversarial Inputs by Open Ai - "We’ve created images that reliably fool neural network classifiers when viewed from varied scales and perspectives. This challenges a claim from last week that self-driving cars would be hard to trick maliciously since they capture images from multiple scales, angles, perspectives, and the like."
What Is Overfitting Exactly by Andrew Gelman - "If your model is correct, “overfitting” is impossible. In its usual form, “overfitting” comes from using too weak of a prior distribution."
Conversation With Bryce Wiedenbeck by Jeff Kaufman - "AGI is possible, it could be a serious problem, but we can't productively work on it now." AGI will look very different from current technologies. Utility functions are a poor model of human behavior.
Examples Of Superintelligence Risk by Jeff Kaufman - A series of extended quotes describing ways AI with innocent seeming goals can destroy the world. Authors: Nick Bostrom, Eliezer (and collaborators), Luke M, 80K hours, Tim Urban. Jeff finds them unpersuasive and asks for better ones. Lots of interesting comments. Eleizer himself comments describing how 'paperclip maximizers' might realistically occur.
Superintelligence Risk Project Update by Jeff Kaufman - Links to the three most informative readings on AI risk. Details on the large number of people Jeff has talked to. Three fundamental points of view on AI-Safety. Three Fundamental points of disagreement. An update on the original questions Jeff was trying to answer.
Conversation With Michael Littman by Jeff Kaufman - CS Professor at Brown's opinions: Deep Learning is surprisingly brittle in his experience. General Intelligence will require large fundamental advances. The AI risk community isn't testing their ideas so they probably aren't making real progress.
===EA:
EAGX Relaunch by Roxanne_Heston (EA forum) - The EA global satellite EAGA-X conferences have been low activity. Changes: More funding and flexibility. Standardized formats. Fewer groups approved. Stipends to primary organizers.
Uncertainty Smoothes Out Differences In Impact by The Foundational Research Institute - Many inside view evaluations conclude that one intervention is orders of magnitude more effective than another. Uncertainty significantly reduces these ratios.
Autonomy: A Search For A Measure Will Pearson (EA forum) - "I shall introduce a relatively formal measure of autonomy, based on the intuition that it is the ability to do things by yourself with what you have. The measure introduced allows you to move from less to more autonomy, without being black and white about it. Then I shall talk about how increasing autonomy fits in with the values of movements such as poverty reduction, ai risk reduction and the reduction of suffering."
Eight media articles on GiveDirectly, Cash Transers and Basic Income.- A world where 8 men own as much wealth as 3.6 billion people by GiveDirectly -
More Giving Vs Doing by Jeff Kaufman - EA is moving far more money than it used to and the ramp up will continue. This means direct work has become relatively more valuable. Nonetheless giving money is still useful, capacity isn't being filled. Jeff plans on earning to give based on his personal constraints.
Why I Think The Foundational Research Institute by Mike Johnson (EA forum) - A description of the FRI. Good things about FRI. FRI's research framework and why the author is worried. Eight long objections. TLDR: "functionalism ("consciousness is the sum-total of the functional properties of our brains") sounds a lot better than it actually turns out to be in practice. In particular, functionalism makes it impossible to define ethics & suffering in a way that can mediate disagreements."
Tranquilism by The Foundational Research Institute - A paper arguing that reducing suffering is more important than promoting happiness. Axiology. Non-consciousness. Common Objections. Conclusion.
An Argument For Why The Future May Be Good by Ben West (EA forum) - Factory farming shows that humans are deeply cruel. Technology enabled this cruelty, perhaps the future will be even darker. Counterargument: Humans are lazy, not evil. Humans as a group will spend at least small amounts altruistically. In the future the cost of reducing suffering will go down low enough that suffering will be rare or non-existent.
Arguments Moral Advocacy by The Foundational Research Institute - "What does moral advocacy look like in practice? Which values should we spread, and how? How effective is moral advocacy compared to other interventions such as directly influencing new technologies? What are the most important arguments for and against focusing on moral advocacy?"
An Argument For Broad And Inclusive by Kaj Sotala (EA forum) - "I argue for a very broad, inclusive EA, based on the premise that the culture of a region is more important than any specific group within that region... As a concrete strategy, I propose a division into low-level and high-level EA"
Not Everybody wants a Goat by GiveDirectly - Eight links on GiveDirectly, Cash Transfers, Effective Altruism and Basic Income.
Mid Year Update by The GiveWell Blog - Encouraging more charities to apply. More research of potential interventions. Short operations recap. GiveWell is focusing more on outreach.
===Politics and Economics:
College Tuition by Tom Bartleby - Sticker prices for college have gone up 15K in twenty years, but the average actual cost has only gone up 2.5K. High prices are almost compensated by high aid. Advantage: more equitable access to education. Disadvantages: Not everyone knows about the aid, financial aid is large enough it can seriously distort family financial decisions.
War Of Wages Part 1 Apples And Walmarts by Jacob Falkovich (Put A Number On It!) - The Author thinks minimum wage hurts the poor. Walmart can't afford higher wages. Copenhagan Interpretation of Ethics: Walmart helps the poor and gets blamed, Apple does nothing for the poor but avoids blame.
Links 10 by Artir (Nintil) - Tons of links. Economics, Psychology, AI, Philosophy, Misc.
Pretend Ask Answer by Ben Hoffman (Compass Rose) - A short dialogue about Patriarchy and the meaning of oppression. Defensive actions are often a response to bad faith from the other side. Its not ok to explicitly say you think your partner is arguing in bad faith.
Cultural Studies Ironically Is Something Of A Colonizer by Freddie deBoer - An origin story for Writing Studies. The fields initial methodological diversity. Cultural studies took over the field, empirical work has been pushed out. Evidence that some cultural studies professors really do believe its fundamentally bigoted to do science and empirical research endangers marginalized students. The field has become insular.
The Dark Arts Examples From The Harris Adams Debate by Stabilizer (lesswrong) - The author accuses Scott Adams of using various dark Arts: Changing the subject, Motte-and-bailey, Euphemisation, Diagnosis, Excusing, Cherry-picking evidence.
Study Of The Week Modest But Real Benefits From Lead Exposure Interventions by Freddie deBoer - Freddie reviews a survey he found via SSC. The study had very good controls. Methodology is explained and key graphs are posted and discussed. Scott and Freddie seem to agree on the facts but have a different opinion on how large to consider the effects.
Descriptive And Prescriptive Standards by Simon Penner (Status 451) - Leadership means winning the Keynesian Beauty Contest. Public opinion doesn't exist as a stable reality. Prescribing public opinion. Dangers of social reform and leaders twisting the facts to promote noble outcomes.
A Taylorism For All Seasons by Lou (sam[]zdat) - "Christopher Lasch – The Culture of Narcissism, part 1/X, current essay being more of an overview." A Masquerade where you must act out the mask you choose.
Mechanism Agnostic Low Plasticity Educational Realism by Freddie deBoer - Freddie's educational philosophy. People sort into persistent academic strata. Educational attainment is heavily determined by factors outside of school's control. The mechanism differences in academic ability is unknown. Social and political implications.
Kin Aesthetics Excommunicate Me From The Church Of Social Justice by Frances Lee - A SJ-insider's critical opinion of SJ. Fear of being impure. Original Sin. Reproducing colonial structures of power and domination within social justice. Everyday Feminism's belittling articles. More humility. Bringing humanity to everyone, even those who have been inhumane.
Study Of The Week To Remediate Or Not To Remediate by Freddie deBoer - Should low math proficiency students take remedial algebra or credit bearing statistics. The City University of New York ran an actual randomized study to test this. The study had pretty good controls. For example students were randomly assigned to three groups, participating professors taught one section of each group.
Should We Build Lots More Housing In San Francisco: Three Reasons People Disagree by Julia Galef - For each of the three reasons Julia describes multiple sub-reasons. More housing might not lower prices much. More housing won't help the poor. NIMBY objections might be legitimate.
Kenneth Arrow On The Welfare Economics Of Medical Care A Critical Assessment by Artir (Nintil) - "Kenneth Arrow wrote a paper in 1963, Uncertainty and the Welfare Economics of Medical Care. This paper tends to appear in debates regarding whether healthcare can be left to the market (like bread), or if it should feature heavy state involvement. Here I explain what the paper says, and to what extent it is true."
Thoughts On Doxxing by Ozy (Thing of Things) - CNN found the identity of the guy who made the video of Trump beating up CNN. They implied they would dox him if he continued being racist. Is doxxing him ok? What about doxxing someone who runs jailbait? Ozy discusses the practical effect of doxxing and unleashing hate mobs.
On The Seattle Minimum Wage Study Part 2 by Zvi Moshowitz - Several relevant links are included. Seattle's economic boom and worker composition changes are important factors. Zvi dives deep into the numbers and tries to resolve an apparent contradiction.
Radical Book Club The Decentralized Left by davidzhines (Status 451) - The nature of leftwing organizing and what righties can learn from it. An exposition of multiple books on radical left organization building. Major themes are "doing the work" and "decentralized leadership".
On The Seattle Minimum Wage Study Part 1 by Zvi Moshowitz - The claimed effect sizes are huge. Zvi's priors about the minimum wage. Detailed description of some of the paper's methods and how it handle potential issues. Discussion of the raw data. More to come in part 2.
===Misc:
Childcare II by Jeff Kaufman - A timeline of childcare for Jeff's two children. Methods: Staying at home, Daycare, Au pair, Nanny.
Easier Chess Problem by protokol2020 - How many pieces do you need to capture a black queen?
Book Review Mathematics For Computer Science by richard_reitz (lesswrong) - Why the text should be in the MIRI research guide. Intro. Prereqs. Detailed comparisons to similar texts. Complaints.
Information is Physical by Scott Aaronson - Is information is physical a contentful expression? Why 'physics is information' is tautological. A proposed definition. Double slit experiment. Observation in Quantum Mechanics. Information takes up a minimum amount of space. Entropy. Information has nowhere to go.
Book Review Working Effectively With Legacy Code By Michael C Feathers by Eli Bendersky - To improve code we must refactor, to refactor we have to test, making code testable may take heroic efforts. "The techniques described by the author are as terrible as the code they're up against."
The Ominouslier Roar Of The Bitcoin Wave by Artem and Venkat (ribbonfarm) - A video visualizing and audiolizing the bitcoin blockchain. A related dialogue.
From Monkey Neurons To The Meta Brain by Hal Morris (ribbonfarm) - Neurons that only fire in response to Jennifer Anniston. Mirror Neurons. Theory of Mind. The path from copying movement to human-level empathy. Infant development. Dreams as social simulator. Communicating with our models of other people. He rapidly accelerating and dangerous future. We need to keep our mind open to possibilities.
Newtonism Question by protokol2020 - Balancing Forces. Gravity problem.
Short Interview Writing by Tyler Cowen - Tyler Cowen's writing habits. Many concrete details such as when he writes and what program he uses. Some more general thoughts on writing such as Tyler's surprising answer to which are his favorite books on writing.
Unexpected by protokol2020 - Discussion of gaps between primes. "Say, that you have just sailed across some recordly wide composite lake and you are on a prime island again. What can you expect, how much wider will the next record lake be?"
Interacting With A Long Running Child Process In Python by Eli Bendersky - Using the subprocess module to run an http server. Solutions and analysis of common use cases. Lots of code.
4d Mate Problem by protokol2020 - How many queens do you need to get a checkmate in 4D chess.
The Destruction Of American Cuisine by Small Truths - America used to have a tremendous number of regional cuisines, most are dead. They were killed by supermarkets and frozen food. This has been costly both in terms of culture and health (antibiotic resistance, crop monoculture risk)
===Podcast:
Sally Satel On Organ Donation by EconTalk - "The challenges of increasing the supply of donated organs for transplantation and ways that public policy might increase the supply." Tax Credits. The ethics of donor compensation.
Podcast The World Needs Ai Researchers Heres How To Become One by 80,000 Hours - "OpenAI’s latest plans and research progress. Concrete Papers in AI Safety, which outlines five specific ways machine learning algorithms can act in dangerous ways their designers don’t intend – something OpenAI has to work to avoid. How listeners can best go about pursuing a career in machine learning and AI development themselves."
88 Must We Accept A Nuclear North Korea by Waking Up with Sam Harris - "Mark Bowden and the problem of a nuclear-armed North Korea."
Triggered by Waking Up with Sam Harris - "Sam Harris and Scott Adams debate the character and competence of President Trump."
Conversation Atul Gawande by Tyler Cowen - The marginal value of health care, AI progress in medicine, fear of genetic engineering, whether the checklist method applies to marriage, FDA regulation, surgical regulation, Michael Crichton and Stevie Wonder, wearables, what makes him weep, Knausgaard and Ferrante, why surgeons leave sponges in patients.
Nneka Jones Tapia by The Ezra Klein Show - The first psychologist to run a prison. 30% of inmates have diagnosed mental health problems. Mental heath view of the penal system, balancing punishment and treatment, responsibility versus mental instability, the tension between what we use jail for and what we should use jail for.
Tamar Haspel by EconTalk - "Why technology helps make some foods inexpensive, how animals are treated, the health of the honey bee, and whether eggs from your backyard taste any better than eggs at the grocery."
From Cells To Cities by Waking Up with Sam Harris - "Biological and social systems scale, the significance of fractals, the prospects of radically extending human life, the concept of “emergence” in complex systems, the importance of cities, the necessity for continuous innovation"
Inside The World Of Supertraining: Mark Bell by Tim Feriss - "Mark’s most important lessons for building strength. How to avoid injury and breakdown. Lesser-known training techniques that nearly everyone overlooks. How Mark became a millionaire by offering his gym memberships for free."
Eddie Izzard by The Ezra Klein Show - 27 marathons in 27 days, process for writing jokes, why he wants to run for parliament, inspiration from Al Franken's, borrowing confidence from his future self. What he learned as a street performer, routines are based on history and anthropology, World War I, 'cake or death?'. His gender identity, and how he integrated it into his act early on, etc.
Martha Nussbaum by EconTalk - "The tension between acquiring power and living a life of virtue. Topics discussed include Hamilton's relationship with Aaron Burr, Burr's complicated historical legacy, and the role of the humanities in our lives."
Rs 188 Robert Kurzban On Being Strategically Wrong by Rationally Speaking - Why Everyone (Else) is a Hypocrite." The "modular mind" hypothesis, and how it explains hypocrisy, self-deception, and other seemingly irrational features of human nature.
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Open thread, August 2017

This is an open thread to discuss items of interest. I may also use it to drop thoughts as they occur to me as well -- something of a replacement of my former "tab closure" posts, as ... well, it seems tabs are simply running away from me. Consider this an experiment that's been mulling for some time.
If you've got a question, observation, link, or anything else, feel free to post it, with a thought to the lair rules -- like house rules, but larrier.
An evolving conversation....

Kafka as Epistemist

From "The Kafkaesque Process of Cancer Diagnosis", the concept applied here to cancer diagnosis, and in Kafka's The Trial to a process of judgement, strikes me as profoundly epistemological:
The patient continued, “You understand that the many tests and the elusive information of the recent weeks remind me of Franz Kafka's words in his famous work Der Prozess, meaning both trial and process.” “The verdict does not come suddenly, proceedings continue until a verdict is reached gradually.”

I am looking for tools to make sense of HTML DOMs

Probably in Python, though other general scripting, or possibly, compiled languages, might work. Javascript is another possibility, with a few extant tools employing this.
The primary goal is to extract document metadata (title, author, publisher, date, URL), and include the body of a document whilst excluding, or at the very least marking as secondary the ancillary bits. The though occurs that frequency / similarity analysis of the constant bits might help.
The extant tools of Readability's parser (it's survived the fall of the service), Pocket, Instapaper, Outline, etc., may be useful.
Inquiries elsewhere have also brought up Pilgrim, a project of the Knight Foundation (as Outline may also be), which isn't exactly what I'm looking for, but it's interesting in its own right.

On nuclear power and safety

There's an article making the rounds, poorly argued, IMO, extolling nuclear energy. I've been heartened by the critical response it's triggered at Hacker News, including my own contribution, previously submitted at G+ on Joerg Fliege's thread, drawing comparisons to the Banqiao Dam disaster of 1975. In part:
Proponents of nuclear power assume that we can assess risks with tails not of the decade or so of Banqiao, but of 100, 1,000, 1 million years. Utterly outside the scope of any human institutions, or of the human species itself.
Our models of risks and of costs fail us....
The problems with nuclear power are massive, long-tailed, systemic and potentially existential. The same cannot be said of a wind farm or solar array. There is no significant 10,000 year threat from wind power, or solar power. We're not risking 30 - 60 km exclusion zones, on an unplanned basis, of which we've created at least four in the half-decade of significant nuclear energy applications: Hanford, Washington, Three Mile Island, Pennsyvania, Chernobyl, Ukraine, and Fukushima, Japan. And this is with a global plant of some 450 operating nuclear power plants as of 2017....
If the total experience has been, say, 500 reactors, over 50 years, or 25,000 reactor-years of experience, and we've experienced at least four major disasters, then our failure rate is 0.016%.
The global share of nuclear power generation in 2012 was about 10%.[4] Which means that without allowing for increased electrical consumption within existing or extending to developing nations, the plant count would have to increase tenfold.
Holding the reactor-year failure rate constant would mean 80 core meltdowns per century. Reducing that to the present rate of four meltdowns/century would require reducing the failure rate to 0.0008%. That's five nines, if anyone's counting.
Five nines on a process involving weather, politics, business, social upheaval, terrorism, sabotage, individual psychology, group psychology, climate, communications, response, preparedness....

"8 Lessons from 20 years of Hype Cycles"

A look at the Gartner Hype Cycle, and lessons derived therefrom:
  1. We're terrible at making predictions. Especially about the future.
  2. An alarming number of technology trends are flashes in the pan.
  3. Lots of technologies just die. Period.
  4. The technical insight is often correct, but the implementation isn't there
  5. We've been working on a few core technical problems for decades
  6. Some technologies keep receding into the future
  7. Lots of technologies make progress when no-one is looking
  8. Many major technologies flew under the Hype Cycle radar
Michael Mullany, "8 Lessons from 20 Years of Hype Cycles".

David Gerard at the Financial Times on Bitcoin and Blockchain

David Gerard, author of Attack of the 50 Foot Blockchain, interviewed by Izabella Kaminska about Bitcoin, /Buttcoin, and Tulips, among other topics. There's a bunch of great information in this podcast, of which I'll highlight two items in particular.
I've been reflecting a great deal on information, truth, and that boundary between information and belief, most principally trust. Gerard nails the value proposition of trust, and a problem with the Free All the Things trope of decentralisation:
Decentralisation is the paramount feature in bitcoin, but it turns out that that's a bad idea that's really, really expensive, because it turns out that a tiny bit of trust saves you a fortune.
"Decentralised" isn't a useful buzzword in a lot of ways, because it turns out that you want to be a part of society.
He also points at the invalidity of market capitalisation as a concept. It's an arithmetically inexpensive value to obtain (multiply total quantity by present price), but, especially in the thin markets typical of Bitcoin, it is essentially a fantasy value with no real meaning. From a conversation at The Other Place:
[C]rypto "market cap" is a meaningless number. Even on Bitcoin, the most popular one, about 100 BTC will clear the order book on any exchange. Crypto "market cap" is not a number you could realise, it's not how much money went into it, it's not anything useful. If you want to compare cryptos by interest, you'd need to measure daily trading volumes, which is a harder number to gather, and market cap doesn't turn out to be a good proxy for it. So billions of dollars in free money weren't actually just created - instead it's millions of tokens that may or may not be tradeable for ordinary bitcoins or for cash, if you don't go very fast at all.
This evokes my own explorations of cost, price, and value, and what exactly they mean.
One analogy that Gerard, Alex Kudlick, and I are leaning toward is that of electric circuits. Price is analogous to pressure, or potential (voltage). Volume would be current. This raises the question of what resistance, capacitance, and impedance would have as analogues....
FT: Attack of the 50 Foot Blockchain with David Gerard (Soundcloud: 65 minutes). Highly recommended.
And you'll find Gerard on Reddit as dgerard.

Yonatan Zunger on the evolution of U.S. "court costs"

In "The history of “court costs”", Zunger writes of "a system that [you might think] has gone out of control, a mechanism that started with a good purpose that got eaten by corruption and incompetence. But you would be wrong."
In the post-Civil War South, a system came up when plantations, factories, or mines needed workers. It was based on that clever little exception in the 13th Amendment:
Neither slavery nor involuntary servitude, except as a punishment for crime whereof the party shall have been duly convicted, shall exist within the United States, or any place subject to their jurisdiction.
Note that it doesn’t say what kind of crime you have to be convicted of.
The short of it: slavery is not illegal in the United States, just somewhat regulated.
My own main commentary ... probably worth posting in its own right, is that whilst Zunger raises excellent points about the intentionality of this system and its antecedents to Nazi Germany's concentration camps, the fact is that none of these phenomena are particularly American, nor particularly new. This isn't to excuse the United States of its guilt.
Rather: these behaviours, systems, and dynamics seem to be deeply rooted. Whether they're merely cultural (the examples I've given are all from cultural antecedants or siblings to US tradition), part of human behavioral psychology, or deeper even than that, this is not simply a matter of bad laws and bad people. Rather: It is a case of such rules and dynamics actively succeeding and crowding out alternatives.
There are two good discussions at The Other Place from the original Tootstorm and from the Medium essay.

When your political opponents are made of money ...

In politics, a growing problem is the dominance of interests who apparently have nothing but money to throw at problems
Utilising this fact in judo fashion, the thought occurs that that one possible response is to create a vast wall of problems for which they find it necessary to throw money at.
The less ease with which to discern between actual problems and fantasmic simaculra of problems, so much the better.
Have fun storming the castle!

Bill Browder: "It turned out that in Putin's Russia, there are no good guys."

At NPR: "Businessman Paints Terrifying And Complex Picture Of Putin's Russia:
In what one senator called one of the Senate Judiciary Committee's "most important" hearings, [William] Browder, a wealthy businessman-turned-activist-turned Putin-adversary shed a chilling new light on a Russian system of government that operates ruthlessly in the shadows — as Browder described it for lawmakers: a "kleptocracy" sustained by corruption, blackmail, torture and murder with Putin at its center.
"Effectively the moment that you enter into their world," Browder told senators investigating Russian interference in the 2016 presidential election, "you become theirs."
Oh, and "Russian adoptions" are one of the dog whistles for the Magnitsky Act, legislation passed in the U.S. in 2012, named after Browder's now-murdered Russian lawyer, Sergei Magnitski, imposing sanctions on human-rights violators.
Also the topic of a certain July, 2016 meeting featuring Donald Trump, Jr., and senior members of the Trump campaign, of recent memory.

The distinction isn't "online vs. offline" but "direct vs. mediated"

Articles and books on the impacts of digital and mobile media are a dime a dozen, and may be as laughable, or prophetic, as previous gerimiads on new media. "Has the Smartphone Destroyed a Generation" is fairly typical of the genre, if better than most.
Reading it, a thought recurs to me: the distinction isn't of online vs. offline, but or even screen time, but of mediated vs. direct experience.
Media mediates. It is literally that which is between the observer and the observed. And with increasingly smart media, those exchanges are very directly mediated, interposed, by third (and fourth, and fifth, and ...) parties.
This has multiple effects, a few:
I'd argue there are degrees of mediation as well. Analogue devices such as the telephone are less mediated than digital feeds such as Facebook or YouTube.
And this isn't the first period to have such experiences. I have frequent cause to point out that intellectual, academic, and creative experiences were very often epistolary, exchanges of letters. Though generally with less rapidity than today's 'round-the-world-in-a-second emails.
But that whole "online" and "cyberspace" distinction? Lose it.

The etymology of "data" ... peculiarly uninformative

I'm rather the fan of looking at etymologies of words. They often reveal interesting origins, connections, or evolutions. The etymology of data would be a peculiar exception:
1640s, classical plural of datum, from Latin datum "(thing) given," neuter past participle of dare "to give" (from PIE root *do- "to give"). Meaning "transmittable and storable computer information" first recorded 1946. Data processing is from 1954.
By way of definitions:
a collection of facts, observations, or other information related to a particular question or problem; as, the historical data show that the budget deficit is only a small factor in determining interest rates.
Which raises the question of whether data is the collection of facts, or the symbolic or other representation of those facts.
Arising as discovered that there is a philosophy of data and I've encountered its philosopher, Brian Ballsun-Stanton (via Mastodon).

Amathia: Unteachably stupid

There are a few concepts on the harm or danger of stupidity. In "One Crucial Word", Massimo Pigliucci explores the Greek term Amathia:
Amathia. It is often translated as “ignorance,” as in the following two famous quotes from Socrates:
“Wisdom alone, is the good for man, ignorance the only evil” (Euthydemus 281d)
“There is, he said, only one good, that is, knowledge, and only one evil, that is, ignorance” (in Diogenes Laertius, II.31)
But just as in the case of other ancient Greek words (like “eudaimonia,” about which I will write later this week) the common translation hardly does the job, and indeed often leads people to misunderstand the concept and quickly dismiss it as “obviously” false, or even incoherent....
Very much worth reading. Via /Philosophy and Paul Beard.

I've made good on a year-old threat and opened up Miranda's Knitting and Tea House

Enjoy! Welcome to the Tea House: Knitting. Tea. Discussion. Intelligence. Sunshine. "We Do Things Different"tm .
This is a sibling subreddit, with more open submissions, though still in a controlled manner. More at the notice.

Dietrich Bonhoeffer on stupidity vs. evil

From The Other Place: Stupidity is a more dangerous enemy of the good than malice:
Stupidity is a more dangerous enemy of the good than malice. One may protest against evil; it can be exposed and, if need be, prevented by use of force. Evil always carries within itself the germ of its own subversion in that it leaves behind in human beings at least a sense of unease. Against stupidity we are defenseless. Neither protests nor the use of force accomplish anything here; reasons fall on deaf ears; facts that contradict one’s prejudgment simply need not be believed- in such moments the stupid person even becomes critical – and when facts are irrefutable they are just pushed aside as inconsequential, as incidental. In all this the stupid person, in contrast to the malicious one, is utterly self-satisfied and, being easily irritated, becomes dangerous by going on the attack. For that reason, greater caution is called for than with a malicious one. Never again will we try to persuade the stupid person with reasons, for it is senseless and dangerous....
Read through to the source for the full quote.
I've dug a bit deeper into the backstory. Dietrich Bonhoeffer was a contemporary and friend of Reinhold Neibur, of "Serenity Prayer" fame. He served in the Abwehr, the Nazi intelligence service, during WWII, headed by Wilhelm Canaris. Bonhoeffer and Caneris were executed by the Nazi regime on 9 April, 1945, only three weeks before the fall of Berlin and Hitler's own death. And it turns out that the Abwehr, centre of relatively unfiltered information during the regime, was an active centre of resistance to it, from within.
Bonhoeffer was one of eight children. A brother, and the husbands of two of his sisters, were also executed by the Nazi regime. Bonhoeffer's twin sister Sabine survived until 1999.
Strongly related to the previous item on amathia, and observations from Hanah Arendt.

The Edge Question, 2017

"What Scientific Term or Concept Ought to be More Widely Known?" I find The Edge to be a bit hit-or-miss, and there are some misses here. But there's a heck of a lot of hits on topics that have been floating through my brain-space, and a few names I've been following as well. David Christian ("Big History"), confirmation bias, motivated reasoning, networks, information pathology, ... Daily Nous has a promising list as well. I've got the essays lined up to ... hopefully, read. And this note as a reminder to do that.

John Stuart Mill: A Few Words on Non-Intervention

By way of Wikipedia:
There seems to be no little need that the whole doctrine of non-interference with foreign nations should be reconsidered, if it can be said to have as yet been considered as a really moral question at all... To go to war for an idea, if the war is aggressive, not defensive, is as criminal as to go to war for territory or revenue; for it is as little justifiable to force our ideas on other people, as to compel them to submit to our will in any other respect. But there assuredly are cases in which it is allowable to go to war, without having been ourselves attacked, or threatened with attack; and it is very important that nations should make up their minds in time, as to what these cases are... To suppose that the same international customs, and the same rules of international morality, can obtain between one civilized nation and another, and between civilized nations and barbarians, is a grave error...

Oil is other people's money

I was thinking through the history of the Indiana natural gas boom -- oh, yeah, what Indiana gas boom, you ask? This Indiana gas boom, lasting from about 1884 to 1903. Basically, people realised you could stick a pipe in the ground and burn what came out. Which people did. As free-standing, natural-wonder flambeaux -- flaming torches, visible for miles around. After all, such a God-given abundance would surely last forever, right?
The field burned out, literally, in two decades.
But why waste that resource? I'm thinking of a typical Analyst's Matrix, describing spending your own, vs. other people's money. Let's do that in a table:
Your money Someone else's money
Your use High quality / Low cost High quality / Cost irrelevant
Somebody else's use Quality irrelevant / Low cost Quality irrelevant / Cost irrelevant
When it comes to natural gas, or oil, or coal, the majority of the cost, that is, its initial formation is not borne by you. Only the extraction cost is. That un-borne fraction is effectively other people's money. You care about the quality of the use (its use value), but not the full formation cost.
Oil, coal, and gas, are other people's money.
The legacy of the Indiana boom lives on in a few ways. Ball Glass Company originally formed in the state to take advantage of cheap gas for glass blowing, as did numerous other manufacturing concerns. They eventually shifted to coal. And you'll find the word flambeau turning up in place-names and the odd company name to. Relics to other people's money.

Limitations on Free Speech -- revisiting "shouting 'No Fire!' in a theatre that is in fact on fire"

The dynamics since the American Fascists riots in Charlottesville, VA, and the ACLU reconsidering its position on free speech reminds me that I had started, quite uncomfortably, revisiting my own views on this about three years ago. "Shouting "No Fire" in a Warming World as a Clear and Present Danger" was my thinking at the time.
Further developments -- Charlie Hebdo attacks, "punching vs. punching down", questions over revisionist history, the amazingly good two-part YouTube set by Contrapoints: "Does the Left Hate Free Speech? (Part 1)" (video: 16:53) and "Does the Left Hate Free Speech? (Part 2)" (video: 17:46) (I'm surprised I hadn't already mentioned it), various research (Jill Gordon, "John Stuart Mill and 'The Marketplace of Ideas'" and Jill Lepore (Kansas City Public Library lecture) both address parts of this. Karl Popper's "Paradox of Tolerance". Many, many discussions, mostly on G+.
The history of free expression / free speech itself is interesting and surprising, particularly the role between Protestant and Catholic factions -- the latter being seen much the same way as Fascists are today, as constitutionally opposed to tolerance, and therefore not subject to the benefits of free speech themselves.

Jeff Schmidt on salaried professionals and the soul-battering system that shapes their lives

Disciplined Minds by physicist Jeff Schmidt has been in my files for a while. Per Unwelcomed Guests Wiki:
This book explains the social agenda of the process of professional training. Disciplined Minds shows how it is used to promote orthodoxy by detecting and weeding out dissident candidates and by exerting pressure on the rest to obey their instructors and abandon personal agendas such as social reform -- so that they, in turn, can perpetuate the system by squeezing the life out of the next generation.
This ... is strikingly similar to the critique of John Stuart Mill of England's educational systems in the 1860s. Hans Jensen addresses this in "John Stuart Mill's Theories of Wealth and Income Distribution" (available via Sci-Hub).
Several prior Reddit mentions.

So no, Sonos! Palindromic boycott of privacy-skewering IoT ToS change

Wireless, cloud-connected speaker manufacturer Sonos have retroactively changed terms of service and required existing product owners monitoring subjects accept the new terms or the devices will cease to function.
And this, boys and girls, is why you don't buy Sonos products, ever.
(Or any Internet of Things that Spy On You devices.)
Palindrome courtesey Sakari Maaranen.

Alexander Hamilton Church and cost accounting: Capital-Labour analysis

Alexander Hamilton Church (28 May 1866 – 11 February 1936) was an English efficiency engineer, accountant and writer on accountancy and management, known for his seminal work of management and cost accounting. In particular, it was his work which expanded the concept of factors of production from just labour to include capital and other inputs.
Among his works, Production factors in cost accounting and works management (1910), from whose introduction:
From the earliest days of manufacturing there has grown up a custom of considering labor as the main and only direct item in production, and of expressing all other expenditure in more or less vague percentages of wage cost. The fact is, however, that labor, while always important, tends to become less important relatively to other items as the progress of organized manufacture develops and the use of specialized and expensive mechanical equipment increases. Very few concerns have come to grief by ignoring labor costs, but many have passed into the hands of receivers by ignoring the relative imiportance of the other factors of production.

On social media and online tools as "optional": Facebook required for AirBnB

Via The Guardian, "I didn’t have enough Facebook friends to prove to Airbnb I was real":
At the other end of the Airbnb helpline in Colorado, “Casey” sounded incredulous. “You have how many Facebook friends?” she drawled. “Er … about 50,” I replied. Long pause. “Well, you don’t have enough for us to verify you. You’d need at least 100.”
“But”, I squeaked, “I post every now and again … I’m on Facebook most days to check on my friends and relations.” This, however, was not enough to convince Airbnb I existed. And, as I didn’t exist, I could not book a room.
Keep this in mind next time someone declares "nobody forces you to use Facebook". Despite the many other refutations of this trope, we can now respond unequivocally: "AirBnB do".

Milestones: the 900 club

Just to memorialise this, and to bury the item as I close out this thread: the Dreddit has crossed the 900 subscriber threshold for the first time. Thanks to all, again, I will strive to be worth your time. It's interesting how much I prefer not to note such things, and yet do in fact note them. The days of teetering just on the edge in particular.

Previously:

One last thing ...

Do you like what you're reading here? Would you like to see a broader discussion? Do you think there are ideas which should be shared more broadly?
The Lair isn't a numbers game, my real goal is quality -- reaching, and hopefully interacting with, an intelligent online community. Something which I've found, in several decades of online interactions, difficult to achieve.
But there's something which works surprisingly well: word of mouth. Shares, by others, to appropriate venues, have generated the best interactions. I do some of that, but I could use your help as well.
So: if you see something that strikes you as particularly cogent (or, perhaps, insipid), please share it. To another subreddit. To Twitter or Facebook or G+. To the small-but-high-quality Metafilter. To your blogging circle, or a mailing list. If you work in technology, or policy, or economics, there as well.
Thanks, Morbius.
submitted by dredmorbius to dredmorbius [link] [comments]

Andreas Antonopoulos - The Death of Money - PART 1/2  London Real BITCOIN : ATTENTION À LA DEATH CROSS ! FascistBook's GlobalistCoin! Is This The Death Of Bitcoin? Death of CEO sends bitcoin exchange into chaos Bitcoin Death Spiral. Miners REKT. Bitmain Shutdown? China Losing Control!!

That halvening, of course, led to the “Bitcoin boom” that went viral and saw the price of a Bitcoin ascend into the stratosphere. Bitcoin actually fell slightly in price on July 9 2016, and Academic rigor, journalistic flair A Bitcoin futures market will take some of the risk out of the currency. Regulation and oversight could be the saviour or the death of a Bitcoin and others. Bitcoin’s fair value, given the number of active wallet addresses, usage per account and factors influencing supply, is between $13,800 and $14,800, he said in a note Thursday. A new academic paper asserts that decentralized cryptocurrencies like bitcoin are critical for public welfare. Now Reading. Academic Paper Touts Bitcoin as “Hedge Asset,” Skeptical of Central Bank Coins. 30+ Talks & Demos. BitcoinHalving.com. Watch 30+ Talks & Demos. The Death of the Dollar #buybitcoin #Bitcoin #Dollar #QE Bitcoin has been viewed as a liberating path out of the corporate monetary system. But the process of 'mining' the cryptocurrency is a massive energy drain - and potential environmental disaster.

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Andreas Antonopoulos - The Death of Money - PART 1/2 London Real

China is losing control of their dominance over bitcoin mining. The cost to mine a bitcoin has risen significantly, while the price of Bitcoin has fell drastically. This can be considered the ... Clients of QuadrigaCX, Canada's largest cryptocurrency exchange, are panicking over $250 million in frozen assents after the death of the company's CEO, Gerald Cotten. To read more: https://www ... Lynette Zang: Big reset coming. Buy gold & silver? Bitcoin? Will cash & stocks be worth anything? - Duration: 35:31. David Moadel 78,160 views Song Paid In Full (Seven Minutes Of Madness - The Coldcut Remix) Artist Eric B. & Rakim; Writers Eric Barrier, William Griffin; Licensed to YouTube by À travers nos vidéos, articles et formations, nous vous partageons toute notre expérience pour mieux investir et trader les cryptomonnaies. #Bitcoin , Attention à la #Death #Cross : https ...

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